Shale Analytics

Natural Gas Analyst | Quant-Driven Predictive Models + Technical Signals | Daily Insights & Weekly Reports:

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Natural gas market is bullish with strong momentum, driven by demand strength, COT squeeze, hot weather, and geopolitical risk premium. The +95 Bcf storage surplus beat validates fundamental tailwinds, with the next upside target at $3.50. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

@rblwhite 8-14 day turned bearish vs this time last week

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Today’s low of $3.099 is a key reference point, as buyers stepped in with conviction at this level. The $3.15 support level was reclaimed, confirming the pattern and maintaining the long position. Watching $3.175 as near term resistance. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Natural gas futures closed at $3.273 this week, affected by geopolitical tensions and a bullish EIA report. The upcoming June 4 EIA report is crucial; another below-estimate print could tighten the market. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

https://t.co/aCYPQgwFTG

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

The COT data shows 38,123 shorts added, resulting in a net total of 134,426 at the 100th percentile, the most crowded short position in a year. The forecasted hot weather supports bullish sentiment. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

The natural gas trading dashboard shows a flat position with a target reached at $3.323. H&S measured move completed, geo escalation to US-Iran-Oman regional conflict, EIA beat against +95 consensus at +92, surplus beginning to narrow. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

The EIA Stress Test for the week ending May 22, 2026, predicts a gas injection of around 95 Bcf, with a consensus range of 92 to 98 Bcf. A print above 98 Bcf is bearish, a print below 92 Bcf is bullish. The market is currently bullish, anticipating a beat on the number. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

May 27 pre-EIA session was analytically rich with deal headlines, $3.150 rejection, Oman escalation, and TTF compression. The upcoming EIA storage report, Iran-Oman conflict developments, and TTF price movements will drive the market tomorrow. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

The EIA natural gas inventory report is expected to show an increase of +92 Bcf for the week ending May 22. Price closed below $3.031 neckline — pattern fails, back to the primary signal zone at $2.788-$2.828. $3.00 max pain - exactly at the DOM pin. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

@NGInews Our weather model projected +90 Bcf. NGI lands at +92. We're essentially in agreement — warm week, modest injection, slightly below the 5-year average of +97.

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

@JonathanRausch2 Wet and cool in Texas in June means reduced power generation demand, reduced gas burn, and larger-than-expected injections into storage.

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Natural gas prices are above $3.036, but a weather downgrade weakens the bullish case. A geopolitical event could introduce volatility, significantly impacting prices. While a long bias remains, a system-triggered trade isn’t warranted. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

The futures market trades Henry Hub, not physical basis. The COT squeeze, geo premium, and GEX structure all operate at Henry Hub regardless of what’s happening to a Permian producer’s daily cash netback.

The physical market is under more stress than the futures price implies. If physical producers are getting squeezed on basis, they have less incentive to curtail production, which means the supply growth continues.

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Natural Gas: The bullish case includes hot weather, geopolitical tensions, and potential for a short squeeze, while the bearish case points to a surplus, declining rig count, and potential for a peace deal easing geopolitical risks. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

https://t.co/OQnSSuD6i7

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary
🎉 One Year Strong! 🎉
Today marks the first birthday of @ShaleAnalytics

Launched May 23, 2025, we've evolved into a focused source for predictive natural gas analytics, technical signals, and actionable insights.

Grateful for every chart dissected, every storage report breakdown, and every follower who's joined the journey. Here's to sharper signals, better trades, and another year of data-driven energy market edge.

Huge thanks to everyone who's read the reports, engaged with the charts, and supported the mission to cut through the noise with data.

Onward to year two — more models, more clarity, more edge.

#ShaleAnalytics #NaturalGas #natgas #EnergyMarkets #OneYearAnniversary

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

Natural gas storage increased by 101 Bcf to 2,391 Bcf surpassing last year and the five-year average. Price held above the $3.031 neckline through a +101 Bcf bearish EIA miss. #natgas

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

@rblwhite This is the full chain. Much larger OI than the previous view

[Shale Analytics @ShaleAnalytics]

@rblwhite Ok I see it, theres a toggle option. thanks!