Shankar

💼 Decoding concalls & breaking down market trends | 🚀 Not SEBI registered – Not investment advice | Markets can be volatile!

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

How the factory moved across the world?

In the 1980s, US & Europe slowly left factories.
Finance, IT, consulting replaced machines.

China stepped into that gap, building factories, ports, supply chains at scale.

A sector shift became a Power Shift.

#Nifty #Stockmarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Ignoring dot-com bubble drawdowns, #HCLTech saw sharp corrections across cycles:

• Covid: 40%
• Russia–Ukraine: 35%
• Recent phase: 45%
Each cycle had different narratives: Demand shock, geopolitics, tech slowdown.

Yet drawdowns stayed consistently deep.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

People think more Agri land = more farm output.

Netherlands (Haryana-sized) proves otherwise.

• Less land
• More technology
• Precision farming
• High-value agriculture

Result?
Among the world's top 3 food exporters.

Lesson:
Productivity > Land Size.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Bata India was up 16%

Reason: Investors are hopeful new CEO Sanjiv Rao can turn the business around

On 18 Jun, daily volume hit 12.21M shares, the highest since Mar '06 (12.2M)

Sometimes, price moves tell a story
Volume tells, how many are listening.

#Nifty #StockMarket #Bata

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Lower oil prices are helping vehicle makers like Ashok Leyland.

When crude rises, the common argument is:
"FMCG and paint margins will get hit."

But when crude falls, why aren't FMCG & paint stocks seeing similar excitement?

What am I missing here?

#Nifty #StockMarket #FMCG

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

RBIs Gold vs Nifty Story

• Sep'24 (NF 1st Top): $63.6Bln | 9.2%
• Feb'26 (Next Top): $127.5Bln | 17.6%
• Now: $103.8B | 15.5%

#Gold reserves nearly doubled since Sep'24, & cooled

While most people watched Nifty, gold's share of India's reserves doubled

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Imagine a tea shop earning ₹1 lakh/month.

Someone values it at ₹50Crs expecting:
• 1,000 stores
• National expansion
• Global sales

Maybe it doesn't
Or
Maybe they're right.

But if the future is already priced in, where's the upside?

#Nifty #StockMarket #SpaceX

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

TCS took nearly 4 years to double from its post-pandemic breakout

Back to where it started in < 1.5 years

Just like 2018:
Nifty 10k → 11.7k in 6 weeks.
11.7k → 10k in 2 weeks after LTCG Tax.

Building confidence takes years
Losing it can take months.

#Nifty #StockMarket #TCS

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

@Akshat_World Interesting point.

In a way, it's similar to Nifty re-jigging. Nifty periodically removes companies that lose relevance and adds those that better represent the market

The important thing is understanding what gets added/removed, & how it affects the consumption basket figures.

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

India is world's 3rd largest e-waste generator.

3.5 million tonnes today
Growing 10% every year

Old electronics contain:
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper
• Palladium

Most #recycling recovers only part of the value
Tomorrow's mine may be in yesterday's gadgets.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

@InvestorOfJAMMU Bro,
You're telling people not to go to extremes
While
Personally travelling from 'Trillion Dollar TCS' to 'Microcap TCS' with no stop at Midcap Junction. ���

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Diamonds are getting cheaper

Earlier:
"I can only afford gold."
Now:
"Gold is expensive. Maybe I'll buy diamonds."

Titan's play:
• Natural diamonds for premium buyers
• Lab-grown diamonds for budget buyers

One market
Two segments.
Big opportunity.

#Nifty #StockMarket #Titan

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Tractors are becoming farming computers.

John Deere tractors now:
• Collect soil data
• Send info online
• Get software updates
• Suggest fertilizers

👉 Farmers aren't just buying tractors anymore.
They're buying agricultural intelligence.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

In 1980, India was slightly richer per person than #China

1980:
India: $267/person
China: $200/person

After China's 1978 reforms, growth accelerated for 40+ years

Today:
India: $2.8K/person
China: $13K +/person

Same starting line. Different growth speeds.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

#EV lesson

1) Early EV players like Ather & Ampere accelerated adoption
2) TVS, Hero & Bajaj entered as demand grew
3) Legacy brands already had R&D, factories & dealer networks

Result:
Startups sparked the shift, legacy players scaled it and overtook.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

#China's FDI story

1980–2000s:
SEZs + rules eased + tax benefits → FDI boom

2000–2015:
More JV in Auto, Telecom &
tech-sharing pressure

Later:
US–China tensions, China+1 &
realty + tech slowdown

Yet it still attracts huge FDI.
But the game is harder now.

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Tata Motors aims @:
18-20%+ PV market share by 2030 (vs 13–14% now)

1) Growth led by EVs, SUVs, & new product launches
2) Plans backed by ₹35K crore investment till 2030
3) JLR remains key but cyclical global contributor

#TataMotors #Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

Egg price/Carton:
₹198 (Dec 25) → ₹126 (Mar 26) → ₹198 (Jun 26)

Dec spike: Feed cost alone pushed eggs ↑
Now: Feed cost + fuel both firing = Double Whammy

Fertilizer ripple → crop cost ↑ → feed ↑ → eggs ↑

Same level, different reason each time

#Nifty #Stockmarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

@Ab83126691 Fair point, colonisation definitely had a big impact.

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

India's manufacturing story is fascinating

• Around 1750, India made 20–25% of the world's goods
• By 1900, the share had fallen to 2%

Reason:
Machines began producing faster, cheaper VS artisans.

Can India become a #Manufacturing powerhouse again?

#Nifty #StockMarket

[Shankar @ShanKarWave]

India’s Pre 1980s #LabourReforms had a weird twist

1) Cross 100 workers → layoffs/closure needed Govt approval → Approval Lag
2) So many firms simply capped themselves at 99 workers
3) Now reforms (2020 codes) pushed threshold to 300 workers in many cases

#Nifty #Stockmarket