Frank notOcean 🧩 $BARD

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Wall Street is taking @HyperliquidX seriously - as an opportunity and a threat

I think there are 3 factors that made it happen:

1. Hyperliquid enables round-the-clock trading of TradFi assets when traditional markets are closed

2. Hyperliquid enables pre-IPO markets with impressive trading volumes and OI

3. Reliable and democratic infrastructure that allows it to happen.

“convenience store” is becoming a department store.

perps. commodities. pre-IPO. outcomes. one venue. 24/7.

that’s the vision: house of all finance. and it’s getting closer

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Pre-IPO markets on @HyperliquidX, June 1:

SPCX · $61.6M OI · $205 (↑41% in 4 days)
ANTHROPIC · $8.74M OI · $1,551
QNT · $4.14M OI · $99
OPENAI · $3.46M OI · $1,352
Total: $80.5M open interest.

SpaceX IPO: June 12. 11 days.

CBRS peaked at $58M OI the day it resolved. SPCX is already at $61.6M - and still climbing. Trade it on @Markets_xyz: https://t.co/A6tAIAcEeT

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Pre-IPO markets on @HyperliquidX - how a new $1.12B asset class emerged in 90 days.

@SpaceX. @OpenAI. @AnthropicAI. @cerebras. Accessible 24/7 on @tradexyz and @ventuals.

From a wallet.

Full breakdown below ↓

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Cerebras @cerebras IPO'd 12 days ago. Traders didn't go home.

They rotated into SpaceX.

I analyzed every pre-IPO perpetual on @HyperliquidX. Five markets, two deployers, $1.12B cumulative volume in 90 days in a category that did not meaningfully exist before March.

What the data shows, market by market:

→ CBRS (Cerebras · @tradexyz): proof of concept. Launched May 1. IPO day did $281M in volume - the single largest pre-IPO day in HIP-3 history. OI still sticky at $37M post-resolution.
→ SPCX (SpaceX · @tradexyz): the new flagship. Day 1 volume $54.5M. OI ramped $25M → $50M in seven days. Doing in 10 days what CBRS took three weeks to build.
→ ANTHROPIC (@ventuals): $7.5M OI · funding +58% annualized. Most-loved Ventuals name. Longs paying the highest premium in the category.
→ SPACEX (@ventuals): $4.5M OI on $72K daily volume. OI/vol = 62×.
→ OPENAI (@ventuals): $3.4M OI.

CBRS → SPCX isn't two trades. It's one trade in two parts. When Cerebras resolved on May 14, capital didn't leave the venue, it redeployed into SpaceX four days later.

@tradexyz captured 61% (~$43K) of Pre-IPO HIP-3 revenue, while @ventuals accounted for 39% (~$28K).

Three months ago, retail couldn't touch SpaceX without a $1M net worth and a broker relationship.

Today: a Hyperliquid account.

now Quantinuum $QNT is next Pre-IPO Perpetual (IPOP) Market on @tradexyz

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

new @Markets_xyz app update spotted 👀

real question though: what should Markets build next?

genuinely curious what's missing (prediction markets👀)

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

https://t.co/RPPmv8uG5A

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Hyperliquid testnet has its first HIP-4 market on a real-world event - not a crypto price. It's "Fed rate change in June."

The resolution rules are sharp. It settles "Change" if the Fed moves rates at the June 16-17 meeting, and "No Change" if rates hold or the meeting produces no decision. Moves between meetings don't count.

But here's the gap: the spec says what counts as a rate change - it doesn't say who posts the result on-chain, or whether there's a challenge window.

$BTC and $HYPE markets settle to @HyperliquidX own mark price, so they never needed an external oracle. A Fed decision can't do that. This is the first HIP-4 market where real-world resolution actually has to be solved - and the mechanism or oracle isn't public yet.

The one to watch: https://t.co/AfrUJxm1VJ

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

cftc just streamlined the rules for prediction market exchanges.

one umbrella letter now replaces 18 separate approvals. new exchanges can join by request.

19 venues on the list, including @kalshi, @polymarket us, cme, bitnomial, @cryptocom, railbird, ex-ledgerx.

the takeaway: lower barrier to entry, consistent rules, and the cftc is signaling formal rulemaking is next.

prediction markets are graduating from experiment to recognised venues.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

trade[xyz] q1: $112.87B volume, +857% qoq.

what the headline doesn't show:

commodities = 67.65% of platform throughput
silver + cl = ~50% of total volume ($56.52B combined)

two stress windows:
- silver crash (jan 20 - feb 10, 22 days): $18.89B
- hormuz crisis (feb 24 - mar 18, 23 days): $10.47B

~26% of q1 volume came from 45 stress-event days.

48 consecutive days of OI ATHs is real for @tradexyz. spread convergence to crypto perps is real. the s&p license is real.

but the volume curve has two named catalysts driving the spikes.

the "no-event month" baseline is the q2 question.

kudos and credits to for amazing research: @smartestxyz and @shaundadevens

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

https://t.co/XhqwNKkd9m

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

$HYPE outcome market is up on @HyperliquidX testnet.

Same template as the $BTC one, recurring daily binary, settles to the $HYPE mark price on HL.

First contract: HYPE above 28.18 at May 15, 00:00 UTC.

ticker: hype-above-2818-yes-may-15-0000

$BTC was the canonical first market on mainnet. $HYPE looks like #2.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Ondo just bridged 250+ tokenized US stocks to @HyperliquidX via @felixprotocol and @LayerZero_Core

How I farm~39% APR, delta-neutral, on $GME

Funding rate on the $GME perp is currently +0.0091%/hour on @tradexyz (~78% APR)

Long the Ondo-tokenized $GME spot on HyperEVM, short the perp on Hypercore, capture the spread.

Same wallet. HyperEVM and Hypercore. 24/7.

https://t.co/87lSa0vlCP
https://t.co/g6yBM6CGbx

Hyperliquid stopped being a DEX. It's a 24/7 equity venue now.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

HIP-4: Week One Numbers

HIP-4 launched 7 days ago with a single market: a recurring daily $BTC binary.

In its first week it cleared $20.6M in volume across 132,462 transactions.

That's 0.37% of the prediction market category for the same week. It's also the wrong number to fixate on.

Here's why.

@Polymarket runs thousands of markets. @Kalshi runs hundreds. HIP-4 launched with one.

The right comparison isn't HIP-4 vs Polymarket. It's HIP-4's $BTC daily binary vs Polymarket's most active $BTC price markets (5 and 15 mins).

On that basis, $3.3M daily volume on a single binary puts HIP-4 within striking distance of @Polymarket's biggest crypto-price contracts. From day one.

Three patterns from the data:

→ Daily volume held steady at ~$3.3M for six straight days. May 2 → $3.03M. May 7 → $3.19M.

→ Transaction count grew through the week. 17,899 on day one. 28,589 by day six.

→ Avg trade size: $156 on HIP-4 vs $97 on Polymarket. HIP-4 is pulling larger, more sophisticated participants. That tracks with the cross-margin thesis: these are traders sized for perp positions, treating binaries as portfolio tools rather than retail bets.

What week one proves:

The mechanism works. The opening auction clears. The CLOB handles size. Settlement executes cleanly. The oracle layer holds for a $BTC mark price binary.

Phase 1 was about proving canonical markets can carry meaningful volume on the rails. They can.

What week one doesn't prove:

Whether non-canonical markets attract liquidity. Whether the oracle architecture holds for sports, elections, macro releases. Whether multi-outcome support lands and unlocks the categories where Polymarket and Kalshi actually win.

Those are questions for the next 90 days.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Three resolution philosophies. Three trade-offs.

@HyperliquidX HIP-4 chose speed. Authorized oracle, minutes-bounded resolution. Fast.

@Polymarket UMA's optimistic oracle is slower but battle-tested across billions in disputed volume. 2 hours to 2 days.

@Kalshi's in-house committee is fast in the common case. Inscrutable in the edge case.

The honest framing: HIP-4's oracle architecture is the least specified part of the spec.

For $BTC daily binaries, the oracle is HyperCore's mark price.

For sports, elections, macro releases? The infrastructure has not been publicly designed.

That's the bet. Speed first, optionality later.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Three things only HIP-4 does:

→ Cross-margin with perps and spot

A long $BTC perp + a $BTC > $80k by Friday outcome contract sharing the same $USDH collateral. @Polymarket lives on Polygon. @Kalshi lives in a brokerage account.

→ On-chain end-to-end

Polymarket's V2 still matches off-chain. Kalshi has no chain at all. HIP-4 runs every step on @HyperliquidX: order, match, settle, oracle.

→ Permissionless deployment via burn-able stake

1M $HYPE, slashable, burned on slash. Up to 50% builder fee share. Phase 2 turns market creation into a deployable revenue line, not a curated listings function.

The trade-off: zero maker rebate (Polymarket pays makers 20–25%).

Free entry, paid exit. Nobody else does this.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Hyperliquid stopped being a crypto exchange this quarter

Q1 numbers:
→ 40% of HL OI is now HIP-3 → 52% of that is commodities

The biggest perp on HIP-3 markets in terms of volume in Q1 was silver. Revolutionary for @HyperliquidX

Full breakdown ↓
Data: @artemis

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

“You miss 100% of shots you don’t take”

>be early
>try new things
>get rewarded for curiosity

https://t.co/y5paI08WUz

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

$22B in April.

11× in six months.

While @HyperliquidX was finalizing HIP-4, @Polymarket and @Kalshi quietly turned prediction markets into one of the fastest-growing categories in finance.

Sports drove Kalshi to $12B/month. Geopolitics carried Polymarket to $9.5B. On-chain venues are still underrepresented: @trylimitless cleared $356M.

This is the pool HIP-4 entered on May 2.

The category isn't speculative anymore. It's institutional-scale.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Took @kirbyongeo's HIP-4 ecosystem rundown and compiled it into a single visual map.

30+ services laid out by layer:

foundation rails → live frontends (7) → coming soon (10) → analytics & infra.

Full credit to him + @hypurr_co for the source thread.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

HIP-4 quietly enables synthetic options on @HyperliquidX

Want to bet BTC ends between $78k and $82k by Friday? Buy four cheap “yes/no” bets, one at each strike inside your range.

→ “BTC > $78k?” YES at $0.55
→ “BTC > $79k?” YES at $0.48
→ “BTC > $80k?” YES at $0.40
→ “BTC > $81k?” YES at $0.32

Total cost: $1.75. Each pays $1 if true.

If BTC ends at $80.5k → three bets win → +$1.25 profit
If BTC ends below $78k �� all lose → -$1.75 max loss
If BTC ends above $81k → all win → +$2.25 max gain

Same shape as a call spread. Built from four binaries.

Polymarket can do this in theory. But each bet sits in a separate market with separate collateral, and you can’t cross-margin against a BTC perp.

HIP-4 puts all of it on one engine, one collateral pool, alongside your perp delta.

That’s how a binary book becomes an options surface.