SimpleJack

A macro system research approach to equity markets and crypto by studying hidden constraints and non linear micro factors that can lead to market instability

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Let them short $GME

https://t.co/NHXtkLScZX

[GameStop @gamestop]

GameStop reports highest quarterly net income in company history of $389.6 million. Highest first quarter operating income in GameStop’s history of $143.3 million. Net sales grew 14% year-over-year, driven by collectibles. Cash, marketable securities, digital assets and related receivables, and collateral pledged for derivative asset of $9.7 billion.

https://t.co/BAu3T6V9w4

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@larryvc @SylvesterPatr0n Power to the Others!

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@CardPurchaser Josh Allen

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Arrr, I be knowin' in me treasure filled bones that I be sharper than that scurvy dog @jimcramer by a vast sea of doubloons!

And most o' ye $GME diamond handed crew be brighter than that overgrown crybaby Huey who envies a weatherman's luck!

I’ll prove it on any intelligence map ye dare chart any test o’ wits! I’ll outsmart the bilge rat by leagues, arrr!

Put yer gold where yer gob is, ye landlubber! Winner picks the punishment fer the loser.

Ye can shove a banana up me aft on the livestream if I lose, which I won’t, ye coward!

But if I win, ye’ll buy a chest o’ @GameStop shares, hoist the diamond hands forever, and wear a dunce cap on yer show fer a week while I count me booty!

I ain’t no madman cravin’ that spectacle, but yer landlubber predictions be dumber than a plank walkin’ fool day after day fer years!

I be dead serious, ye bilge suckin’ bitch. “They think they be smarter than us”? I bloody well KNOW it! Bring yer worthless hide on, or walk the plank!
Eyes knows me much more wrinkled than that smooth bald pie hole you stuck on tops a ya pencil neck.

I’m 100% serious you block head cuck. If you’re smarter than all of us, prove it.

The results of the test can be revealed live on @MadMoneyOnCNBC

You have the platform to ridicule me and say you were right in front of your aufiance. I would stand there and take it. Simple Jack in real life getting shown how simple he is.

You would be able to prove that you do correctly predict things one in 1 million times, but you won’t because you know you’re a bitch.

Bring it on Jimmy.

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@Venturinglist Probably a few reasons, but here are at least two of them

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@AlexZarac @gamestop Exactly when have you seen me do that ?

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@larryvc $GME employees, management ,and board. 👐

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@knotty_llama This is the post that got me blocked. The post from users who are blocked proceeding said block maybe the alpha trail. https://t.co/8C69WltpCI

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Between 2019 and 2023, GameStop consistently traded between 14× and 16× forward earnings, a range that always puzzled observers because the underlying business was shrinking. Michael Burry quietly explained the math in 2019 with a simple valuation formula:

Fair multiple = 1 / (required return − per-share growth + dilution − buyback yield)

During those years, GameStop’s stock-based compensation (SBC) was running at 10–15% of operating cash flow. That massive dilution term (+10–15%) completely overwhelmed any modest required return (say 8–10%) and the negative per-share growth from a declining business. Plugging in the numbers yielded a fair multiple of exactly 14–16×, matching the stock’s actual trading range to the decimal.

Fast forward to 2025. The latest Q2 10-Q tells a radically different story. GameStop is now sitting on $8.7 billion in cash and cash-equivalent securities while stock-based compensation has collapsed to only 1.1% of cash flow from operations. That single change flips the entire equation:

- Dilution drops from +12% to +1.1%
- Required return remains ~8–10%
- Per-share growth turns positive at 10.9–16.9% simply from earning 5% on the cash pile while issuing almost no new shares

The same Burry formula now spits out fair multiples of 48× on the low end and 110× on the high end—even before any share repurchases.

If management uses even a portion of the $8.69 billion in liquid assets to repurchase shares at, say, a conservative 12% annual rate, net dilution flips negative (−10.9%). At that point the denominator in Burry’s formula approaches zero and the theoretical fair multiple becomes infinite. The historical precedents like Monster Beverage in the 2000s show the market caps these situations at 100–200× earnings until the buybacks are complete.

In short, the same valuation framework that perfectly explained why GameStop was “stuck” at 14–16× from 2019–2023 now explains why, in 2025, the stock can rationally trade at 50–200× forward earnings. The only variable left is whether management announces aggressive buybacks. With 25–30% of the float now directly registered and locked away from lending, any such announcement would almost certainly ignite the mother of all short squeezes.

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@knotty_llama Blocked here and on Substack

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@PhantomBlack699 @EaNotSport1 https://t.co/8C69WltpCI

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Between 2019 and 2023, GameStop consistently traded between 14× and 16× forward earnings, a range that always puzzled observers because the underlying business was shrinking. Michael Burry quietly explained the math in 2019 with a simple valuation formula:

Fair multiple = 1 / (required return − per-share growth + dilution − buyback yield)

During those years, GameStop’s stock-based compensation (SBC) was running at 10–15% of operating cash flow. That massive dilution term (+10–15%) completely overwhelmed any modest required return (say 8–10%) and the negative per-share growth from a declining business. Plugging in the numbers yielded a fair multiple of exactly 14–16×, matching the stock’s actual trading range to the decimal.

Fast forward to 2025. The latest Q2 10-Q tells a radically different story. GameStop is now sitting on $8.7 billion in cash and cash-equivalent securities while stock-based compensation has collapsed to only 1.1% of cash flow from operations. That single change flips the entire equation:

- Dilution drops from +12% to +1.1%
- Required return remains ~8–10%
- Per-share growth turns positive at 10.9–16.9% simply from earning 5% on the cash pile while issuing almost no new shares

The same Burry formula now spits out fair multiples of 48× on the low end and 110× on the high end—even before any share repurchases.

If management uses even a portion of the $8.69 billion in liquid assets to repurchase shares at, say, a conservative 12% annual rate, net dilution flips negative (−10.9%). At that point the denominator in Burry’s formula approaches zero and the theoretical fair multiple becomes infinite. The historical precedents like Monster Beverage in the 2000s show the market caps these situations at 100–200× earnings until the buybacks are complete.

In short, the same valuation framework that perfectly explained why GameStop was “stuck” at 14–16× from 2019–2023 now explains why, in 2025, the stock can rationally trade at 50–200× forward earnings. The only variable left is whether management announces aggressive buybacks. With 25–30% of the float now directly registered and locked away from lending, any such announcement would almost certainly ignite the mother of all short squeezes.

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

This is at least the fourth if not, the fifth example of how my tinfoil is not for a hat, it was used to build a time machine to provide everyone Alpha.

If you haven’t been reading my post for the last two years, you have a lot of catching up to do and time is of the essence $GME #88MPG @gamestop @ryancohen

https://t.co/4Kxqc9ZrSK

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

This is at least the fourth if not, the fifth example of how my tinfoil is not for a hat, it was used to build a time machine to provide everyone Alpha.

If you haven’t been reading my post for the last two years, you have a lot of catching up to do and time is of the essence $GME #88MPG @gamestop @ryancohen

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Between 2019 and 2023, GameStop consistently traded between 14× and 16× forward earnings, a range that always puzzled observers because the underlying business was shrinking. Michael Burry quietly explained the math in 2019 with a simple valuation formula:

Fair multiple = 1 / (required return − per-share growth + dilution − buyback yield)

During those years, GameStop’s stock-based compensation (SBC) was running at 10–15% of operating cash flow. That massive dilution term (+10–15%) completely overwhelmed any modest required return (say 8–10%) and the negative per-share growth from a declining business. Plugging in the numbers yielded a fair multiple of exactly 14–16×, matching the stock’s actual trading range to the decimal.

Fast forward to 2025. The latest Q2 10-Q tells a radically different story. GameStop is now sitting on $8.7 billion in cash and cash-equivalent securities while stock-based compensation has collapsed to only 1.1% of cash flow from operations. That single change flips the entire equation:

- Dilution drops from +12% to +1.1%
- Required return remains ~8–10%
- Per-share growth turns positive at 10.9–16.9% simply from earning 5% on the cash pile while issuing almost no new shares

The same Burry formula now spits out fair multiples of 48× on the low end and 110× on the high end—even before any share repurchases.

If management uses even a portion of the $8.69 billion in liquid assets to repurchase shares at, say, a conservative 12% annual rate, net dilution flips negative (−10.9%). At that point the denominator in Burry’s formula approaches zero and the theoretical fair multiple becomes infinite. The historical precedents like Monster Beverage in the 2000s show the market caps these situations at 100–200× earnings until the buybacks are complete.

In short, the same valuation framework that perfectly explained why GameStop was “stuck” at 14–16× from 2019–2023 now explains why, in 2025, the stock can rationally trade at 50–200× forward earnings. The only variable left is whether management announces aggressive buybacks. With 25–30% of the float now directly registered and locked away from lending, any such announcement would almost certainly ignite the mother of all short squeezes.

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Care to model the number of shares sold short yesterday? The data normally doesn’t allow for a good estimate but yesterdays data has an outlier that makes it more reliable

Strong possibility of 10 million+ new actual short positions were opened

Yep you read that correctly maximum number resides around 13 million but that would mean that absolutely zero shorts closed, which is not realistic. Read on Apes

Some interesting data I am noticing today for $GME

I have been developed a model over the last year or two that looks at various data points to identify what the true free float trading supply cap could be.

One of the most boring data points that I have monitored has been average duration in days that shared have been on loan. It has religiously been in the 100-110 day range for roughly a year. 106 days at the close on Friday

Today this changed dramatically. It dropped to 84.3 days.

Typically on normal training days this is small and you’re unable to determine if it is affected by old shorts, closing out or new shorts, jumping or a combination of the two

The 5/4/2026 session shows a structurally interesting set of cooccurring signals that allows us to make a strong inference on the short exposure net increase or decrease for yesterday based on several data points.

Average stock-loan duration dropped from 106 days to 84.43 days in a single session

Off exchange short volume printed 13.7M shares against a normal daily run rate of 1M to 3M

Borrow fee jumped 56 percent intraday

And the lendable pool went to zero shares at one Fintel-tracked prime brokerage by early 5/5 UTC.

The combined picture is a thinly intermediated loan market absorbing a heavy directional flow, against a public short interest of 61.9M shares (15.17 percent of float, 5.12 days to cover).

The cleanest read is that 5/4 saw both meaningful new short borrow and accelerated loan-book churn

#SHF #MarketManipulation #shortsale #MOASS #ApesStrongTogether

[GameStop @gamestop]

GameStop reports highest quarterly net income in company history of $389.6 million. Highest first quarter operating income in GameStop’s history of $143.3 million. Net sales grew 14% year-over-year, driven by collectibles. Cash, marketable securities, digital assets and related receivables, and collateral pledged for derivative asset of $9.7 billion.

https://t.co/BAu3T6V9w4

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@Topps My hoops finest so far. Acetate is 🔥

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

@ODB123 👀

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

Any of you out there who have taken the 13’th step and become a cardboard crackhead as you were in your childhood years? When @powerpacks
launced myself I’m gonna buy a bit just for fun because I want to support @gamestop

At the time I didn’t know that power packs was that drug dealer they always told you about Fletcher have fun in the beginning and gives you a little taste so you keep on coming back for more, lol

And just like a dope fiend when i got back into collection, I got back in 10 times harder than I ever have been in before

I’ve got a serious compulsion. I think Taco Bell just started selling cards or maybe I asked them to cause I can’t be bothered doing business with the store that doesn’t have the wherewithal to sell me collectible trading cards. I don’t have time for multiple stops multiple times a day. Everyone needs to sell them.

I became buying so many that I was buying duplicates and triplicates of ones I had no interest in having multiple of. So I built out a little tracker for myself to keep track of my collection.

I’m in the middle of chasing down an impossible rainbow with the four one-to-one of one of the elite players in the league and went on a forum to share my progress using the screenshots from this app and people went nuts.

They’re asking who’s the app where do we get it? Where can I buy it? When I told them i actually made it just to help myself a few dozen of them said they would pay a few bucks for it and I should make an app.

The pretty pictures of the collection are nice with anyone who’s ever read anything from he knows that I get obsessed with the mechanics of how things work and how different things interact with each other.

So the app is almost built, and I developed some modeling to determine market trends for different sets, different players, teams, price points etc.

Retail can still have fun collecting spent just as much money. I’ll be much more successful at building some value, if they had a way to properly digest the mountains of information.

Every box has different parallels with different rates and different print runs for different sets.

Ensure take a look below for one of my tests that I ran this week on a new set to see how quickly I could pull the information and get the data correctly organized for actionable purchasing or not purchasing.

In short, would anyone pay a few bucks a year to have access to this and the tracker?

Give this post a like or give shoot me a comment below on what you would like to see organizational and informational wise to help you collect smarter and better.

If there is interest, I’m gonna continue if there isn’t I don’t want to spend money in time to build that stuff that I could just run off of my phone

Would any of you have any interest in a retail data analytic app that also serves as a parallel insert set and rainbow tractor.

If I do build this, I have several other ideas that I think would be beneficial over the long run.

@RoaringSensei I know nothing about Pokémon, but this just be something that Football people would be interested in or to the other side of the house. Is there a need for more data?

I think this information will turn out to be beneficial most of the time not always numbers don’t always drive passion or art. But I’m putting my money where my mouse is I bought about $1500 worth of one particular insert on the secondary market today for @topps signature series hoops based on this info.

I have two hobby boxes of signature Football due to be arriving this week.

Hobbies are not the right product for every collector and his data will show that depend depending on what you are chasing.

Be Good
Do Good
God Bless
Go Bills!

@CardPurchaser

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

I'm doing the same. I started cataloging my cards this weekend. I'm about 10% through. Then I have, I don't know, 50 to 60,000 comics that are back imported from the 1970s to today. I will not be able to part with everything, but I will try to muster up the courage to do so.

Hardly anything is greater so if I sent to PSA and they are in good shape to double triple the value. Shares and ITM leaps seem like they might be on my menu.

I am a collector in every sense of the word and not a flipper at all. Comics taught me the meaning of diamond handing when I was five.

The Allen rainbow stays with me forever. I can’t bare to part with that, like I said, I’m a completion list and I’m still missing several cards before I die. I’m finishing that fucker.

[SimpleJack @SimpleJack]

While waiting for my Topps signature Football Hobby boxes to release figured I would check out some Topps NBA signature to see what the set might look like. Top hits from two Blaster Boxes this Morning. Not too shabby…

If my NFl signature hobbies are half as good as these NBA signature blasters, I would be happy.

@CardPurchaser