Amazing gains so far. How I did it? read below
So far:
- $SERV x5
- $NEAR x2
- $GRASS 70% up
- $NIL 50% up
- $CFG 60% up
- $USELESS 55% up
All publicly posted here, only wrong on $FARTCOIN which did an amazing run first but then crashed back below entry unfortunately.
Just like I said in the post below we have seen some changes in market behavior last months.
- BTC not going down on bad news
- ALTS remaining strong when BTC moved
- ALTS in multi month sideway structures after huge moves down
- No euphoria on timeline went BTC went up but mostly bearish views
So how did I pick pretty much the best runners so far?
Part charts, part conviction/narrative and partly fundamentals.
The charts
First and foremost the best oppurtunities in crypto are after a bear cycle when you got a prolonged sideways period with usually price sweeping the lows of ALTS but no significant downside. This is usually created by absorption from larger players, they are dampening downside volatility and often buy large amounts of coins over time in order to accumulate without price moving.
Combine this with ALT behavior getting better during BTC volatility which is a sign that market is changing, last months/years we have seen weakness on ALTS basically with ever BTC move, but that stopped recently.
That combination was the trigger for me to start bullposting/getting active again after months of nothing.
Conviction and narrative
Conviction comes partly from fundamentals and partly from narrative. So I try to combine those to fund coins that are both (imo) fundamentally undervalued and/or fall in the narrative that I think is hot.
The narrative with the highest conviction for me was AI. AI coins have been going down massively because of ALT correlation and general market being very bad. Yet everything AI in tradfi was hugely hyped. So for me this was the clearest narrative, AI coins are mispriced and when we get some capital flows, I think those are the first to reprice. This is also where the most of my capital allocation is.
Next was privacy, we already saw the market warming up to privacy months ago. We all know blockchains are open to everyone, which poses massive risks to large users. It's just something everyone wants and needs especially with OPSEC in mind and AI getting better in hacking/tracing.
RWA was another narrative for me, obviously on of the fastest growing part of crypto and clear PMF. but there's just not that many interesting projects trading on venues with high liquidity so I just chose CFG because ONDO seemed overvalued relative to CFG.
Fundamentals
With fundamentals I mean:
- Is there PMF
- Has there been actual adoption/users
- Have teams been active
- Revenue growth?
Pretty much all of my picks fit the above criteria, they have clear product market fit, users have remained steady or even increased during bear market (without incentives/bootstrapping), teams remained very active during bear market and most have seen revenue growth.
Another part is, do others talk about the coin? because attention span is important too but not the most important criteria for me.
So in the end when I pull the trigger is when:
- Market conditions change
- Charts start showing bottoming signals/accumulation
And then I pick:
- Fundamentally strong coins with PMF
- Coins that fall within the popular narratives
Please RT/like if you have enjoyed my runners or like the content ๐
Moreover, It can be challenging to determine price levels when an asset has achieved 'price discovery.' The Fibonacci retracement tool can provide some guidance in this situation, although I believe it is not entirely reliable. We expect some resistance overhere.
#bitcoin
@Linkstincts I personally only look at hidden bull div in a trend with a hh and hl - this looks more like consolidation formation
By the way, this does not rule out just going up. MYRO very strong after all
Het onvolprezen @Kick_uitgevers geeft een schitterende, nostalgische #Ajax-kalender 2022 uit, met waanzinnig mooie foto's.
#Branie geeft er eentje weg.
Volg @braniedepodcast, retweet dit bericht en ding mee. Vrijdag a.s. de winnaar!
#ALTSEASON time?
Read the thread below to see what I think ๐
Retweet if you like content like this, I might post these kind of analysis on a more regular basis if you guys like it!
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