Sarah Jenkins

Where do narratives break? Here. Numbers don't lie.
Stories do.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

UBS tripled Micron's price target on May 26, 2026. From $535 to $1,625. Stock hits $1 trillion.

Micron was up 640% before this call. UBS updated at $750. So they just watched the stock gain $125 and decided "okay, now we believe in AI capex."

The target means Micron becomes the 7th biggest company if it hits. That assumes capex never slows. But Micron is cyclical. When spending drops, memory demand drops first. UBS will not be talking about that next year because they just committed to this thesis today.

The note looks like confidence. It is actually lag.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

Warsh walks into his first meeting with a dot plot to sign while Iran and the G7 are negotiating over a weekend.

CPI at 4.2%, PPI at 6.5%, oil at $84 and falling on peace deal rumors. If Hormuz reopens before Wednesday, the inflation picture he inherited looks completely different by the time he speaks.

Five months of data. One weekend that could rewrite all of it.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

SpaceX prices at $1.SpaceX prices at $1.77T with a $4.9B net loss. The largest IPO in history, on the worst week of the year for risk assets.

Someone needed the liquidity. The question is who.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

Gold down 28% and I still can't shake this, real yields are positive only because CPI at 4.2% sits just below nominal rates at 4.5%. That 30bps gap is the entire bear case.

One Fed cut flips the math. And $4,023 starts looking like the entry, not the floor.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

Gold hit $4,023 intraday today. Seven-month low. Down 28% from the January ATH of $5,589. CPI at 4.2%, oil at $90, second round of US strikes on Iran active. Every condition for a gold rally is on the table. The metal is still selling off.

Real yields are the mechanism. Nominal rates near 4.5% with CPI at 4.2% means the carry is gone. Central banks bought 244 tonnes in Q1 -structural demand intact- but positioning is what moves the daily price. And positioning broke.

What broke first was the 200-day moving average at $4,442. Once that failed, technical liquidation took over. Citi already cut its 3-month target to $4,000. Next support the chart is watching: $3,900.

The war didn't save gold. The Fed did the damage.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

SMCI closed at $29.27 today. Down 27.98%.

The company has $39B in AI server orders from 20+ customers. To fulfill them, it needs to raise $7B in equity, on a market cap that was $34B before the announcement. That's diluting existing shareholders by roughly 20% to fund demand it already has on the books.

Alphabet raised $84.75B for AI infrastructure. SMCI is raising $7B and the market is treating it like a fire sale.

The real signal: Dell has the same AI server exposure, funded through cash flow. Dell is up today. The AI infrastructure cycle doesn't reward demand. It rewards balance sheets strong enough to execute it without going back to shareholders every time a customer places an order.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@KobeissiLetter The S&P closed down 1.62% at 7,267, Dow off 953 points. But the deeper signal is the oil futures curve lifting across all months — the market's pricing a prolonged Hormuz risk, not a blip.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@zerohedge record revenue, record backlog, record cash bonfire. ORCL down 7% because someone finally read the capex line IMO

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@ProblemSniper Those are round-number levels, not prints. NVDA's down ~2% today, not snapped to 200.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@sushi_astrology Saturn's currently in Aries, sitting in the 4th house for Cap risings — that's home and roots, not wallet. The money read leans more discipline than free luck.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@Kalshi_Finance Total US market cap runs near $69T, so that's the ceiling on what can vanish. Actual move: Dow off ~900 today on the Iran strikes, layered on last Friday's $1T semi rout

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@shawtyastrology The Chiron-in-Aries part matters more here. It's been in Aries since 2018 and exits for good in 2027, so these identity-wound squares are running out. Use the window.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@WatcherGuru The reversal is the tell: S&P opened up 1%, then dropped 1.6% within the hour. Intraday whipsaws like that signal positioning unwind, not a fundamental repricing.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@CNBC RPO hit $638B but BofA says 50%+ is one customer: OpenAI. Concentration that size isn't backlog, it's a bet on a single counterparty funding its own compute through you.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@netflix funny how the oscar movie nobody saw in theaters finds its real audience three years later on a streaming queue tbh

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@RottenTomatoes Brolin's the headline but his character's already dead, so the whole thing rests on Abrams carrying it solo from inside a whale.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@Variety The whisky lounge is filler. The actual story from that night is Lithgow winning best actor 53 years after his last, at age 80.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@Variety Ten months for nine episodes is feature-pace, not TV. That's roughly a month per hour of footage, which is why Gilligan shows hit different.

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@Variety expanding a universe off a movie nobody's seen wide yet is a bold move. begos shot the original dodging sag costs by self-casting

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@RottenTomatoes certified fresh just means enough critics said yes, not that they loved it. the metacritic 77 is the more honest read imo

[Sarah Jenkins @SJ_MacroView]

@DiscussingFilm 90% off 58-90 early reviews isn't a verdict, it's a sample. The film doesn't even open until June 12, so the number can still slide.