$NBIS: Why Leopold Aschenbrenner Can Move the Markets
When Leopold Aschenbrenner revealed his NBIS position today but filed May 20, NBIS jumped as much as 15.5% after hours hitting $240.
Leopold's fund Situational Awareness returned +2065% in 2025 (1) alone rotating from Nvidia to Memory/Storage/Optics to BE/Power/INTC and now Neoclouds. When a man 21x his entire portfolio in 1 year by timing almost every AI trade correctly, there's alot of people copying his trades. Every moves he makes is amplified.
Leopold accumulated his entire NBIS position between his last 13F filing on March 31 starting $92 to May 20 when NBIS was $191. May 20 was the file date for his NBIS position disclosure. His stake is enormous at 5.6% of the company outstanding shares which is significantly larger percentage of the float. His bid alone was a significant factor in driving NBIS from $92 to $191.
(1) https://t.co/r2IpABAB1C
I’m 99% sure $MSFT acquires $NBIS next year — whether they want to or not.
Why:
• AI compute is the real bottleneck
• $NBIS already runs hyperscale AI data centers
• Existing deals = deep operational integration
• Buying is faster (and cheaper) than building at this point
Control the infrastructure → control AI.
There is now a massive disconnect between $NBIS stock price and the average institutional price target of $172.
Here are all six institutions’ Price Targets:
• Northland Securities: $211 (raised November 12th from $206, Outperform rating)
• Arete Research: $211 (December 1, 2025; Buy rating)
• BWS Financial: $130 (September 2025; Buy rating)
• Goldman Sachs: $155 (November 14 2025; Buy rating)
• DA Davidson: $150 (raised from $125 on November 6, 2025; Buy rating)
• Citizens: $175 (intimated November 19, 2025, Outperform rating)
Consensus: Strong Buy
Consensus average upside of ~115% from current stock price of ~$80 !!
@Gubloinvestor Can't believe zeta is lower than pre/post earnings. Nbis back down is a double whammy. Thesis haven't changed for either. This has to be the market and not the stocks.
$NBIS: The majority of 13F filings are out and institutions are buying huge amounts of Nebius shares. Not just any institutions, but some of the world's best investment managers.
There is a net buying of 18.5 million shares in Q3 2025. That is almost 24 million shares bought versus 5.4 million shares sold.
Top quant funds like Two Sigma (+2.2m shares) and Hudson River Trading (+450k shares) have added to their positions.
Top investment banks like UBS (+2.3m shares), Wells Fargo (+2.4m shares), and BNP Paribas (+1.5m shares) have added as well. This is in addition to other investment banks like Citi, Baird, JP Morgan, William Blair, etc.
Even George Soros' fund, Soros Capital Management added 229k shares. Ray Dalio's fund, Bridgewater, added 55k shares. Blackrock added a small amount as well.
These are top investment managers. Nebius's ownership consists of the world's best investment managers, not just retail. I cannot get more bullish.