Wild how much leverage is in the system. Deals are individually levered, funds level leverage, debt has back leverage. Even the back leverage has back leverage.
You aren’t going to get a screaming deal on the well-located value add multi deal that was overlevered with floating rate debt. Too much capital chasing opportunities like that.
Investors like the idea of distressed real estate until they actually see it. There has been a lot of opportunity to purchase distressed deals over the last several years in retail (specifically malls), hotels, office, but very few groups have looked at buying.
Distress in CRE takes a lot longer to play out than most people realize. Loan workout negotiations, maturity extensions, etc can take years. I know of mall loans that matured in the 2015 range that still haven’t been resolved. Still some unresolved loans from the GFC as well.
I wonder exactly how much the rise of AirBnb has contributed to the housing shortage over the past few years. A lot of units have been taken offline from for sale and rental housing.
@CaseyMericle Great thread, very interesting although I wouldn’t say this is an accurate representation of all brokers. The best brokers that list high quality deals aren’t posting on Loopnet. I think if you sent that same email in response to email blasts your results would be a lot different
@fefemon96 @Cribdilla His argument was that the amount of capital chasing deals has more correlation to cap rates than interest rates do and that there is still significant dry powder for deals, therefore cap rates wouldn’t rise.
I think there’s opportunity for some good deals in LA over the next couple of months before the City Transfer Tax goes into effect on 4/1. Sellers who want to sell or are forced to sell now will want to close by April.