Land Axis

Land Axis is a property analysis and mapping platform for anyone who needs to understand a site before committing to it

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@CryptoCred 🤯

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@rom1trs OS

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

This is where development feasibility gets interesting.

When end values fall but construction & finance costs remain elevated, the pressure often flows back into residual land value.

The question is whether landowners accept that adjustment or simply hold reducing transactions.

[Peasant @asxpeasant]

AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY ‘COLD’ TAKE:

I am acutely aware that this is a contentious topic right now in Australia as “not just the far left” want house prices to go down, but I’ll say it how I see it from my perspective in pre construction in Sydney

My job is to network with developers and clients to find and win new construction opportunities, and help my clients bring them to life by assessing cost to build amongst other things.

- our build prices are higher than they were last year. Call it war, inflation, etc.

- there is more subcontractor tension due to less jobs stacking up, but none the less, material and labour costs means subbie MARGINS are being compressed to rock bottom (subbies are taking more risk on to feed mouths) ie. There’s a FLOOR to how cheap build costs can get.

- at the same time END SALE prices are dropping. Higher cost and less end revenue means developer margins are compressed, MORE projects are being put on hold to change to a more profitable scheme (from new apartments to “build to rent” shoe box hold and operate models)

- we still have record high immigration

My simple take is based on 101; SUPPLY and DEMAND

prices are suffering a shock now as buyers aren’t speculating on property (Yay success the plan worked! Prices are dropping!)

Or did it?

Less houses are getting built in 2027 and 2028.

You can’t see it easily now but there’s way less being planned right now that’s actually stacking up (not feasible or profitable for the developer)

So NEXT YEAR, I’d say early to mid 2027, I think prices find a floor, and the economic physics “monster” takes grip.

1. NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY
2. SAME OR MORE DEMAND

My base case take:

House prices V bottom like a spec stock, and we’re in for some pretty aggressive price action (rebound in prices as more people bid on less stock)

I also suspect this might be on the back of rate cuts to facilitate weakened economic conditions, due to margin compression and job stress on multiple fronts as explained above

My 2 cents
Pez

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@daryljwilson @asxpeasant Complication is vendors often don’t reprice quickly, they just hold. So rather than immediately seeing cheaper land, u can end up with fewer transactions and more sites sitting idle until expectations reset.

That lag could be part of what creates the future supply squeeze.

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@asxpeasant Policies that suppress property prices in the short term suppress the development needed to increase supply.

If developers can’t make projects feasible, approvals don’t equal homes.

Less feasible supply + population growth = potentially much more pressure on prices later.

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

If you're a commercial real estate agent in Victoria, this might be worth a look.

Land Axis pulls together property data, zoning, overlays, easements, and planning history. Free to subscribe. #Victoria #Property https://t.co/CNcP78J2xX #landaxis

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@0xReflection What’s next boss?

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@Thejimpenman System is broken. It takes us 6-12 months to get the planning permit for a couple of townhouse then another 6 months for building permit.

Then neighbours can still object to works on boundary

Then delays again for permits during construction

We have to allow 24 to 36 months

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

Property decisions shouldn't depend on ten browser tabs and a gut feeling.

We're building Land Axis, one place to analyse a site, check constraints, and make the call. Built for developers, agents, valuers, architects, planners, and builders.

Heads down building. More soon 🏗️🗺️

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@ColinJEly1 @ronInBendigo Depends on many factors including single level vs double storey, fixtures, finishes and location but allow minimum of $2500 per sqm these days.

200 sqm house will cost approximately $500,000 to build in Melbourne with slightly better than builders spec.

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@AlfieJCarter Agents

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@benjamincowen You must have pumped, rugged and then ghosted everyone

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@3AW693 In every suburb us men need to group up and fight back. That seems to be the only way left to take back our suburbs.

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@benjamincowen 90% sell order set at $5299

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@benjamincowen BTC to ETH got filled. Thanks very much

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@DudespostingWs How else do you cut it 🤨

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@TedPillows Correlation is not causation

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@Pentosh1 153,968

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@great_martis My 2 year old can trade better than this guy

[Land Axis @SlateProjects]

@katherine_deves Proud to see Australians march today for real action on the issues that matter: housing affordability, cost of living, mass immigration, energy security, and healthcare. When government fails to act, we as the people speak up. #AustraliaDeservesBetter