SlothyFlows

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

He’s basically confirming 🇨🇦 was in a recession since 2020. It masked declining quality of life by adding more economic units.

It doesn’t matter that the human capital stock is doing worse, they just need to consume food & shelter to boost GDP.

Also “lowered” debt averages.

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

🇨🇦: tl;dr Toronto airports

- YYZ: passengers unwittingly smuggle drugs, staff swaps bags +5yrs

- YHM: ex-CEO offered bail for fent trafficking “mobster”

- YTZ: ON Gov just expropriated land to expand int flights. The Star just learned it’s owned by JPM, but…

<Thread> 🧵👇

[Rosanna Prestia, MBA @RosannaInvests]

Everyone wants 10x upside.

Very few want the 70% drawdowns, volatility, uncertainty, sleepless nights, and public ridicule that usually come before it.

The market pays you for absorbing risk most people cannot tolerate.

Asymmetric returns are the reward for surviving asymmetric risk.

[Leah Wald @LeahWald]

When a company uses AI as "the reason" to cut staff, it's quietly admitting it never had a growth plan. Only a cost one.

AI didn't tell you to fire anyone. It could have made your people faster, sharper, better supported. But subtraction is easier than imagination, so that’s what got chosen. Comms called it decisive.

The thing nobody is pricing in: experience. Not the resume line or the gray hair slide on a deck. The quiet judgment that recognizes the rare case before it happens. Thats the person who's watched the thing go wrong twice and can name what it looks like on the way down. That knowledge isn't written anywhere because it lives in people.

AI is trained on what usually happens. Experience is what handles what usually doesn't. Let those people go to save 20% and you're not trimming cost; you’re selling off the only insurance you had against what the model has never seen.

It compounds. People build judgment by doing the work. The early reps are the apprenticeship. Hand all of that to the machine and you remove the path by which the next person learns to catch the mistake. You end up with a thinner and thinner bench of people who can actually review what ships. And checking falls to AI that's built to agree with you, not flag the problem. That's not quality control.

So the question was never how many jobs survive this. It's what we decide a person is worth once output is the only thing that counts. A quarter of AI-written code ships with a real security vulnerability. AI code is already behind one in five breaches. The judgment that catches that before it goes out is built over years. Yet that’s the first thing being treated as optional.

https://t.co/cRM3kvqXmL

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

Both are partially right.

1) OI is low because you have to have physical market makers (who can make/take delivery) and financial market markers (spreads and volume). We have this in precious but it’s still just a handful. It drops off significantly end of month from both our expiry window, as well as Comex expiry windows where a lot of traders are arbing and trading against. In VCMCarbon we also have physical makers/takers (unlike a major competitor who literally wrote a contract spec where there was no available “physical” to their spec, nobody to make/take registry transfer). LNG and Lithium is close. When, not if on building OI and deliveries.

2) But volume does matter. Bank FCMs don’t even start onboarding until they can seen the liquidity and tight spreads needed for institutional flows. Thats about 20k per day from what we learned at Boca (which is when many flipped the green light end of March to submit clearing applications and/or find carry broker connections). And arb revenue against other markets, even if it slows end of month, is still rev.

3) Finacial futures startups (MiaEx ext) aren’t relevant here from a V/OI perspective due to #1. And we’re the first full stack physical clearinghouse perhaps ever (new contracts, new clearinghouse + FCMs/ISVs connect, new tech, all from scratch, takes time). And physical commodities liquidity is winner take all (see #1 again), financial futures and equities are replicable and all compete (even though best liquidity pools still take most). We aren’t listing copies of WTI to take market share, we’re ramping up our own products with no competition (other than carbon).

4) So the billion dollar question where these threads all started….What should be forward priced into the stock based on the risk/reward of above, runway/dilution, and where V/OI is at?

Should you go long or short on early volume/low OI versus market cap?

If you think we don’t have the clearing members and physical market makers onboarding and we don’t know what we’re doing, and we won’t through the low budget runway we’re operating on ($_30mm annual “burn” to wait on this “option” is literally nothing on our market cap & the backers we have, ~2% dilution per year). Remember, we already sunk all captial for a 1mm ADV exchange, dilution behind us, pre-built. And now look at how I’ve managed dilution for 6years WITHOUT revenue and ramp up, on-boarding momentum; you think now is where I’m going to dilute uncontrollably and lower the probability of a 1mm ADV NAV that I still own +10% of? If we hit it anytime in the next 7 years you’re going to make [many] multiples on your shares here (Lol, or the moron-take that I’m just going to pump & dump my future 4/5-figure stock into an index…Claire, ms. 4%. zero-DD).

(This is all the conservative take btw, competing on the incumbents web1 playing field, we’ll still go up multiples from here…but they can’t even play on the MarketOS Web3.5 playing field we are building, in that we are 1 of 1 and will be coming to take existing markets and liquidity as well).

Alright cool, so now let’s get back to addressing the morons shorting an illiquid call option now, with a month plus to cover liquidity, on shares that can’t be pried out of the cold dead hands of me, [major family offices and institutions] and people that have held for 4-5yrs because they understand the simple math we’ve set up. I guess some people don’t know how to do forward probabilities and share counts, can’t see the flood of institutions now wanting limited stock—for them they can go ahead and short the coin toss in a heavily skewed coin and cry FRAUD (lol, we literally have NYMEX people that have been building markets for 5 decades, Goldman partners that helped build Brent, ICE, former head of CME metals and energy, former head of product launching clearport, head of DME / Omani crude, co-head Goldman Asia…and and…all in on a pump and dump and not here to build markets hahahaha)

[Anish Moonka @anishmoonka]

Bryan Johnson spent $2 million a year for five years trying not to die. He's tested longevity drugs, gene therapies, plasma transfusions, stem cell injections, the works. His final list of what actually works is mostly stuff your grandma would have told you for free.

Johnson is the most measured human alive. Hundreds of blood tests, 30 doctors on staff, his own brand of olive oil. The 41 tips he just sent his "immortal nieces and nephews": sleep 8 hours, walk after meals, see a friend weekly, lift heavy things, floss.

Researchers estimate 80 to 90% of his health gains come from those free habits, not from the gene therapy he flew to Honduras for or the 100-plus daily supplements he takes. Johnson says the same thing himself.

Harvard ran a study on relationships that lasted 85 years and followed 724 men from their teens to their nineties. The result: how long you live depends more on the quality of your relationships than on your genes, your IQ, or your social class. A separate study of 3.4 million people found loneliness raises your risk of dying early by about the same amount as smoking 15 cigarettes a day. Tip #20, see at least one friend once a week, is doing real work.

Tip #11 says walk after meals. A 2025 study found that a 10-minute walk right after eating lowers your blood sugar spike more than a 30-minute walk done any other time of day. The spike is what wears down your heart and arteries over decades.

Tip #13 is lift heavy things. A study of about 2 million people found the strongest third had a 31% lower risk of dying than the weakest. You don't need a gym for this. Carrying groceries, lifting your kid, doing pushups in your living room, it all counts.

Sleep dominates the list with about a dozen tips. The data: under 7 hours of sleep raises your risk of dying by 14%, over 9 hours raises it by 34%. Seven to eight is the sweet spot.

Johnson dropped one of his most-hyped pills, rapamycin, this year because of side effects. He keeps simplifying. Even the guy who hired 30 doctors is landing on the boring stuff.

The longevity industry is worth around $80 billion. The advice with the strongest evidence costs zero.

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

You know how repressive regimes will loot whatever they want from the public?

The West does that too.

Let’s talk about 🇺🇸’s Inventoon Secrecy Act (1951), that’s currently suppressing 1000s of technologies— from missiles to efficient solar panels. Seriously.

<thread> 🧵👇

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

The only companies firing people b/c AI makes them so wildly productive also share these attributes:
- over-hired during COVID
- are market share losers
- have giant capex spend

What a delightfully curious coincidence

[Jeremy Bieber @JeremyBieber]

Your identity and your AI agent should be yours, not a double agent for a platform. Open source is the right way to build that trust.
Abaxx 🇨🇦 Agents++

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

🇨🇦: something extremely f*cked up is happening with federal worker pensions, and taxpayers will be on the hook.

Since the supervillains in charge won’t explain it, I guess I will.

Here’s how 🇨🇦 is looting ~$3B from gov workers pensions & dumping the risk on you.

<thread> 🧵👇

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

@canada_spends Manufactured losses to loot its assets.

Example: Canada Post built a subsidiary that ran the country’s largest 3PL, creating massive cost reductions & would have made it the biggest winner in the e-commerce boom.

… but it suddenly had to sell its operation? 🤔

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

@David_Moscrop But also, it would be profitable if policymakers didn’t intentionally loot its profitable business segments.

We basically sold the rights to Canada’s largest private package logistics distribution for a song.

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

🇨🇦: Canada Post is losing money.

The left thinks that’s okay. The right thinks it now needs to be sold off.

The elites & their politicians? They don’t want you to realize that Canada Post’s losses were manufactured so they could loot a public asset.

<thread> 🧵👇

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

What’s (really) the price of oil right now?

How the physical and financial oil markets work, and why one can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in Sri Lanka.

🗞️🗞️ FREE-TO-READ (next 7 days): https://t.co/TT7PvaFaMY @Opinion

[The Economic LongWave @TheELongWave]

Canada’s four biggest concerns today are not random.

They are the emotional fingerprint of a country under strain:

✔️Cost of living
✔️Healthcare
✔️Housing
✔️The economy

Look at the deeper pattern:

Affordability creates stress.

Healthcare failure creates frustration.

Housing creates insecurity.

Economic uncertainty creates anxiety.

That is what a late financialized era feels like.

The old system still stands.

But fewer people believe it still works for them.

This is how social mood changes before structures change.

In Schumpeter’s terms, societies do not renew by smoothing over every crack.

They renew through creative destruction

Canada feels like a country caught between denial and restructuring.

Not collapse.

Not comfort.

Pressure without resolution.

That is why this moment matters.

[Heather Exner-Pirot @ExnerPirot]

New RBC report: between 2015-2024, more than $1 trillion in investment exited Canada—the largest capital exodus in Canadian history.

Six sectors where Canada can attract back investment:
Oil and gas ➡️  $705 billion
Electricity ➡️ $635 billion 
Mining ➡️ $200 billion
Agriculture and food processing ➡️ $205 billion 
Defence and space ➡️ $30 billion

Read the full report here: https://t.co/cQo5APqQBr

[wealthmoose @wealthmoose]

🚨 Read this slowly.

• Wife lives in the U.S. 🇺🇸
• Four kids live & study in the U.S. 🇺🇸
• ~91% of his portfolio in the U.S. 🇺🇸
• Home in the U.S. 🇺🇸
• Brookfield moved HQ to the U.S. 📍

Yet he tells Canadians: 🇨🇦

“We can’t depend on America.” 🇺🇸

Do you see the contradiction?

#cdnpoli #Canada #US #Reality

[Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️ @StephenPunwasi]

🇨🇦: Tech exec at LPC convention pitches a $500k exit tax to work abroad.

Elites who built their careers abroad want to lock you into a predatory system they’re creating.

Plan B isn’t an option. It’s your insurance against a Soviet-style lock in.

[ThePrimeagen @ThePrimeagen]

It's been 8 days since AGI was achieved

[Nathan Labbe @Cappy_Nate]

High Speed Rail Costs By Country (excl tunnels):

🇨🇳 $25m/km
🇸🇦 $30m/km
🇪🇸 $30m/km
🇫🇷 $35m/km
🇪🇺 $40m/km
🇰🇷 $40m/km
🇯🇵 $50m/km

🇨🇦 $160m/km

At similar costs to every other country, this costs $25B.

Not $90B.