I'm Sam, 20+ years in finance has taught me that the markets are tough, but you don't have to face them alone. 🤝
I'm here to be the steady hand I wish I had when I started.
I translate complex data like unusual wheels into simple, logical steps, so you can trade with confidence and peace of mind. 💚
Let's build the future one clear trade at a time.⬇️
🚀 $SPCX is officially trading, but the real alpha isn’t in buying the day-one hype—it’s in trading the structural flows and unlock schedule.
For the options traders out there, understanding these liquidity bottlenecks is everything. The float is highly constrained right now, meaning volatility is going to be our best friend (or worst enemy if you aren't paying attention).
Here is the master roadmap to trade $SPCX over the next 6 months.
Bookmark this. 🧵👇
🗓️ **THE CRITICAL CATALYSTS & VOLATILITY EVENTS:**
🔹 **June 12–26 | The Stabilization Battle:**
Morgan Stanley’s desk will be working overtime to manage volatility. With a constrained float, expect massive intraday swings. We’ll be watching the tape and unusual options activity closely to gauge institutional positioning.
🔹 **June 26 | Russell Reconstitution:**
The first wave of forced passive fund demand kicks in.
🔹 **Aug 5–12 | Q2 Earnings + First Major Unlock (20%):**
A massive convergence of events. We get our first real look at Starlink margins and AI burn rates, followed immediately by up to 20% of early-release shares hitting the market. Expect IV (Implied Volatility) to be severely elevated going into this week.
🔹 **Aug 21 – Oct 25 | The "Bleed" Phase (7% Unlocks):**
Every 15-20 days (Day 70, 90, 105, 120, 135), another 7% of shares unlock. The float will steadily expand, shifting the supply/demand dynamics.
🔹 **Nov 2026 | The Double Whammy:**
Q3 Earnings paired directly with a massive **28% unlock**. This will be the ultimate institutional confidence test.
🔹 **Dec 9, 2026 | 180-Day Lockup Expiration:**
The floodgates open. This is the largest float transition point for employees and early investors. The market will finally transition from scarcity dynamics to a normalized float.
💡 The Smart Funds Playbook:**
A constrained float plus looming index inclusions (Russell now, potentially S&P 500 by December) mixed with heavy lockup expirations creates prime conditions for premium selling, vertical spreads, and exploiting IV crush around those earnings/unlock windows.
Don't trade blindly. Let the structural liquidity flows dictate your strikes and expiries.
#SpaceX #SPCX #OptionsTrading #MarketStructure #SmartFundsPro #TradingStrategy #USMarkets
Lots of questions coming in about when to buy **$SPCX**.
here is the quick roadmap:
1️⃣ Patience over FOMO: The sell-off is accelerating. Rushing in right now is catching a falling knife. I am strictly waiting for the downward momentum to exhaust and the trend to reverse.
2️⃣ The Level to Watch: For context on how fast this dropped, the Optimized Trend officially turned bearish at **$205.43**.
3️⃣ The Execution Plan :Once the trend structure shifts back to the upside, I’m targeting two specific options strategies to capitalize on the turn:
* **Selling Puts** to collect premium and establish a lower entry floor.
* **Buying LEAPS** to capture explosive long-term upside with defined risk.
Let the market settle and wait for the signal. 📈
#spacex #invest
The S&P 500 has fundamentally shifted. It’s no longer just a tech index—it is an index anchored to the monetization of intelligence.
Look at how the concentration has exploded over the last 5 years:
* **AI-Linked Stocks:** From ~15–25% in 2021 to a massive **39–45% today** (via Goldman Sachs / Deutsche Bank).
* **Semiconductors:** Rocketed from low single digits (~4–6%) to **~18%** of the entire index.
* **SPCX + TSLA:** Now command a combined **~8%** weight.
The Takeaway: Asset allocation has officially become a correlation play. If you own the broader index, you are heavily exposed to the AI infrastructure capex cycle.
And this trend isn't slowing down.
@MerlijnTrader This is not 100% correct, for example 2016 was strong year but 2017 was stronger than 2016. That means 2027 might be better than 2026 as well.
JUST IN:
The Fed flipped from possible rate cuts to possible rate hikes.
9 Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike this year.
My thought = NO RATES HIKES until end of 2026