Associate Professor @SouthAsianUni with research interest in HANK, behavioral fin, nonlin. dyn.,mathematical epidemiology & inequality. Pronouns: he/him/his
नॉर्वे की पत्रकार पीएम मोदी से सवाल पर क्या कहती हैं.
आखिर वो क्यों कह रही हैं कि पत्रकार हैं तो सवाल तो पूछना पड़ेगा.
हर एक सवाल का जवाब
@Tweetnitins@HelleLyngSvends
In the late 1920s, a young Indian woman boarded a ship bound for Germany to do her PhD. Her name was Irawati Karve. And she was about to take on one of the most dangerous ideas of her time.
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This model has done more to stimulate research and discussions of crucial issues of macro than hundreds of books. (Same is true of Aghion Howitt 1992 paper for which they go the Nobel) Simple, toy, models can make a gigantic difference, stimulating both further theoretical and empirical research, and organizing precise discussions.
I was “upgraded” to a middle seat in premium economy from my preferred last row window by #AirIndia on my Delhi-Pune flight yesterday. What followed was a 2-hour-long exhibition of the “downgrade” of the moral fabric of the Indian society. Of casteism, classism & Islamophobia
🧵
With apologies, a long tweet, about the likely macroeconomic outcomes of Liberation Day.
Tariffs can be imposed for understandable if not necessarily good reasons: Protect a sector, right or wrong. Extract rents from foreign producers if there are rents to be extracted. Sure, if there is retaliation, everybody will be worse off, but it maybe worth taking the risk.
Across the board tariffs, which sounds like what we are going to get, are however the worse possible tariffs. They are bad for the country that imposes them, even without retaliation.
Standard scenario: The initial effect of higher tariffs may look good: Lower imports. Higher demand for domestic goods. Smaller trade deficit.
But, with the smaller deficits, and the higher interest rates needed to keep demand under control, appreciation of the dollar (say), less competitive exports. Until trade deficit is back to square one.
So: Useless? Worse. Costly reallocation from exports to import competing sectors. Misallocation. And for the revenues from tariffs: They are there, but in the end, they are paid mostly by US consumers.
A relevant twist, which changes the standard scenario: The enormous uncertainty about Trumps’s tariff policy: Are the tariffs transactional or permanent? Will they remain/increase/decrease?
In that environment, if I am a firm, what do I do? Build a plant in Mexico or in the US, in Vietnam or in China, etc. I do not know, and so I wait. We all wait. Investment comes down, aggregate demand falls, and the effect is a recession.
Now the trade balance improves, for two reasons. The direct effect of tariffs, and lower activity means lower imports. As the Fed tries to maintain activity, lower interest rates and a lower dollar mean more exports. Looks great. Claim of success on the trade front (if you can make people forget the recession)
But only for a while. Over time, as the economy recovers, you go back to the first scenario. The depreciation eventually turns into an appreciation, activity recovers, the trade deficit returns to square one Overall result: a recession, no gain. A general mess.
We shall see how it all turns out.
A Russian woman spoke out:
"I don't understand why I should expand my borders if my country is dying out, degrading. I have no doubt that my country's soldiers should not be on the territory of Syria, Georgia, Ukraine or other countries. I do not understand why my taxes are not spent on the development of my country, on improving the quality of life of my family, on building houses, roads, on opening schools, kindergartens and clinics. I did not give my permission for my money to be spent on missiles and shells that hit foreign countries, killing hundreds of thousands of people like me."
Two very contrasting matters happened today that saddened me and angered me.
The lady with multi herbal supplements related liver failure died. A family lost their loved one. A void. Just their lonely cries. The alternative medicine practitioner who prescribed the product is scott free to harm others.
On the other side, I received yet another summons from the Chief Judicial Magistrate, Thrissur district asking me to come for a hearing, based on a criminal defamation complaint filed against me by SNA Thaikatmooss Ayurveda Private limited because I educated people on the lack of benefits and potential dangers with these untested and highly promoted fraud products.
Patients die due to fraud practices and medical science communicator get harassed for educating the public on healthcare. This is new India.
Pay: This is the price. Die: This is the hill. I'll be here as long as I can.
I and twenty-two other Nobel economists signed a letter endorsing Kamala Harris for President.
We believe Harris's policies will result in a stronger economic performance, with economic growth that is more robust, more sustainable, and more equitable.
https://t.co/y7DPaDw8IS
Also, to mention our other formal theory work in progress research inspired by Acemoglu-Robinson’s political economy framework on regime changes and democratization.
Looking forward to its publication soon!
Recent discussion around Acemoglu-Robinson's Nobel prize seems to totally miss out on literature inspired by their work on political economy. This is just the right time for us to share our paper (with @tariq_basir ) on Arab Spring. https://t.co/TTXLBbZGZR