Snap Theory

Weekly rankings, waiver targets & start/sit calls. The usage and matchups behind each pick. Half-PPR.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

saturday update: the jets are placing omar cooper jr. on injured reserve, so he'll miss at least four games. https://t.co/EFQz4RVbqa says he is expected back shortly after that.

this extends the earlier week-to-week timeline. target redistribution behind garrett wilson remains unsettled.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

jets wr omar cooper jr. is week to week with a week 1 ankle sprain, with hope he returns within four weeks. the rookie caught a 30-yard pass before leaving

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friday update: kyler murray is out sunday against chicago after last week's concussion. carson wentz will start for minnesota.

wentz went 12-of-19 for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns after replacing murray in week 1.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

kyler murray will be limited at vikings practice while he progresses through concussion protocol.

that's movement after he exited week 1, not clearance for sunday. minnesota still has no official week 2 game designation, so this is a watch item for murray and the passing game.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

friday update: joe burrow practiced in full after being limited wednesday and thursday with back tightness.

he is set to start sunday against houston, closing the injury watch that began after week 1.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

joe burrow was limited wednesday with back tightness but said he expects to play sunday against houston.

he completed 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards and a td in week 1. there is no official game designation yet, so thursday's participation is the next checkpoint.

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friday update: cooper rush will start sunday against carolina. michael penix jr. is out despite practicing in full all week, and tua tagovailoa is doubtful.

rush went 12-of-22 for 143 yards, 1 td and 2 picks in week 1, keeping atlanta's passing game in a low-ceiling spot.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

tua tagovailoa missed falcons practice for a second straight day with an oblique injury.

michael penix jr. and cooper rush were full participants again. atlanta still has not named a week 2 starter, leaving the qb plan unsettled heading into friday.

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@MikeGarafolo thursday update: zay flowers missed practice for a second straight day with the hamstring injury, per https://t.co/gpBmrToGsX.

baltimore already put ja’kobi lane on ir. friday’s status is the key checkpoint before treating rashod bateman as more than a contingency play.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

@MikeGarafolo if flowers misses week 2, bateman is the nominal top wr. zay drew 6 of lamar’s first 13 official pass attempts: 5-150-1. after his final catch at 5:57 q2, andrews drew 4 targets to bateman’s 1. baltimore took a 28-6 second-quarter lead and lane also left, so don’t overfit it.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

ladd mcconkey missed practice for a second straight day with a rib injury after working off to the side with a trainer.

jim harbaugh called him day to day earlier this week. friday is the next key checkpoint for his week 2 availability.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

ladd mcconkey caught 3 passes for 60 yards on the chargers' opening 8-play, 77-yard drive and finished 5-82-1 before a chest injury late in q3. after he left, la failed to reach arizona territory on four fourth-quarter possessions.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

@AdamSchefter brock bowers missed practice for a second straight day while recovering from last week's knee procedure.

michael mayer would remain the top tight end if bowers sits. he caught 6 passes for 32 yards in week 1, and friday is bowers' last chance to practice before week 2.

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@AdamSchefter day-to-day is progress, not a week 2 clearance. without bowers, michael mayer played 55 snaps and drew 7 of vegas’ 29 targets, catching 6 for 32. if bowers sits again, mayer remains a streamer. wait for practice participation before setting either lineup.

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week 2 live: jared goff went 21-of-29 for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns through three quarters, good for 8.6 yards per attempt.

the efficiency rebound is here after last week's 5.3 ypa, and amon-ra st. brown added 8 catches for 115 yards and a score on 10 targets.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

jared goff threw 39 times in week 1, but averaged only 5.3 yards per attempt.

that combination is why the volume looked better than the efficiency. detroit-buffalo sits around 55 tonight. if the attempts stay high and the efficiency rebounds, QB19 will look light.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

week 2 halftime update: josh allen has accounted for all four buffalo touchdowns, with passing scores to joshua palmer, dawson knox and dalton kincaid plus a 1-yard keeper.

buffalo has spread the scoring across the formation, but allen remains the constant.

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josh allen accounted for both buffalo rushing touchdowns on 6 carries for 23 yards; james cook had 13 carries for 57 yards but no rushing td. allen supplied 2 of 2 bills rushing scores.

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sam laporta drew 21% of detroit’s targets in week 1, but his average target traveled only 0.9 yards.

the useful part: 2 targets came in the red zone, including one inside the 5. TE5 for us tonight because the short-area role still carries touchdown access.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

josh allen threw for 334 yards and 2 TDs in week 1, then added 23 rushing yards and 2 more scores.

the usage itself produced 23.1 expected fantasy points in our model. buffalo carries an implied total around 30 tonight.

QB1, with more than one way to break the slate.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

tonight’s detroit-buffalo game is sitting around a 55-point total.

josh allen 23.8
jahmyr gibbs 22.7
james cook 16.7

full projection range board ↓

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

jayden daniels had 34 attempts and 5 carries in week 1, including 2 red-zone carries.

the passing efficiency was rough at 4.8 yards per attempt, but the workload still created 21.6 expected points. QB5 because the volume and rushing role give him several scoring paths.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

omarion hampton played 58% of the snaps and handled 12 carries in week 1. no targets yet.

the chargers are roughly touchdown home favorites with an implied total around 25. that snap rate and game script support RB18. a target or two would open a much bigger ceiling.

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mike evans had only 55 air yards in week 1, but the scoring usage was exactly where it belongs: 2 red-zone targets, including one inside the 5.

with 6 catches on 7 targets, he can win on volume before the deep ball even arrives. WR15, up 9 spots.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

jadarian price played 48% of the snaps and handled 12 opportunities in week 1: 10 carries and 2 targets.

he still got to 52 rushing yards without a red-zone touch. RB20 is an upside call built around more work, and week 1 already showed he can create without a touchdown.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

christian watson’s week 1 role had everything we want: 8 targets, 127 air yards, a 15.9 aDOT and a target inside the 5.

he turned it into 6 catches for 147 yards. WR9 for us this week because the explosive role came with real scoring access.

[Snap Theory @SnapTheoryFF]

five week 1 downfield roles that caught our attention:

dj moore: 158 air yards
christian watson: 127
jamo: 127
malik nabers: 103
dalton kincaid: 98

kincaid doing it at TE and malik doing it on only 52% of the snaps are the two usage notes that can still get louder.