Snoopy

eyes on the stars

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@mark_collins09 @dig_with_kyle Super helpful.

What needs to happen for things to turn? With oil prices falling (basically pre-conflict levels) and constant uncertainty from Ottawa, the set up looks strong for CY2027.

What do you think happens in the NTM? Any leading indicators?

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@mark_collins09 @dig_with_kyle What's causing it? Would really appreciate a quick chat if you're open.

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@Rationaldomain1 How's your short doing, buddy?

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

Insane how $FOUR is trading down here

5.6x 2027 EPS growing >10%+

Normal

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

$BRZE

Clean print all around

3rd straight quarter of subscription revenue accel'ing

DBNR stepped up 300 bps this quarter

Customers >$500k up 35% Y/Y

$100mm repurchase autho.

Even at $21, this trades at ~2x NTM sales

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@Rationaldomain1 This stock takes a hit anytime the company talks. Happened at Cowen a few weeks ago and is happening now with Oppenheimer.

Company sounded fine

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

$EVH

2026 EBITDA guide a touch weaker than I expected but driven by a conservative approach to reserving new contracts + losses of mid-year launches higher due to higher-than-expected membership volumes.

I'm fine with that as long as they continue executing on new PS wins

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@smiths117 you would've been better off rotating your $clf into $evh

bro was screaming to buy the dip when $clf's entire mgmt. team was selling

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

They just need a year to execute and do what they say they'll do.

They really got screwed by this OBBB. Hopefully no more one-time headwinds...

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

Add in:

Legacy PS EBITDA growth from core cohort for 2027 (idk, 30-40mm?) + MER improvement from the 2026 cohort (idk, 100%?)

Your 2027 EBITDA quickly bridges to $180mm+ with multiple levers for it to become much higher than that in the years beyond.

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@Carflos223Matos @richtrades100 We'll need to hear what assumptions they have for the exchange membership headwind in their 2026 EBITDA bridge

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@Carflos223Matos Yes

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

$EVH Performance = MIN (Software Performance, Payor Performance)

Earnings tonight

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@Michhhhh43 Happy AMN day

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

$AMN

Looks like Labor Disruption Revenue more positive than I had initially imagined.

Assume 10% EBITDA margin on this $600mm. That's $60mm of accretion on a $600mm market cap business.

Rest of the business looks fine/trending as expected.

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

Not easy to get a read thru on $AMN data given recent strikes.

We know that based on on-the-ground data, management believes the correction is close to being finished and sees margin expansion in 2026 + MSD growth in 2027.

This is despite weakness shown in the Aya dataset.

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

So clearly there's noise between what we're seeing and tracking vs. what management is seeing.

Not very clear whether these strikes persisting are a net positive or negative (more revenue but lower margin?)

[Snoopy @SnoopyPartners]

@Michhhhh43 My guess is it just has a shitty, pod & retail investor base.

It also got cranked prior to last quarter's print on zero news. They then printed a clean Q3 and still continued to draw down.

Can't win.

Ultimately, the deleverage and growth will drag it back up.