Snowcap

Snowcap is an investment firm focused on deep research and active engagement. Tweets reflect solely opinion and do not constitute investment advice.

[Snowcap @SnowCapResearch]

We are short $STRL, a poster child for the AI bubble. Data center exposure appears exaggerated. Backlog growth is not supported by contract win data. Margins look inflated. The stock is expensive even vs AI darlings like $NVDA. We see 60-80% downside.
Report at https://t.co/L0rkQnRPnD

[professor smol cap @prof_smol_cap]

One year after @muddywatersre and @SnowCapResearch called out $FTAI's asset-sale-as-revenue model, we revisited the short thesis. The company's own filings, in a way, confirm the short sellers' thesis. Leasing fleet down 35% in 12 months. Inventory up 117%. GAAP OCF still negative. And last night: EPS miss, stock -9.5% after hours. Details below.

[Snowcap @SnowCapResearch]

16/ For added context, by our calculation, Sterling’s E-Infrastructure segment is trading at an implied valuation of nearly ~29x EV/EBITDA – which is a significant premium to $NVDA, and on par $VRT – a pure play data center infrastructure business with vastly superior EBITDA growth.

[Snowcap @SnowCapResearch]

We are short $STRL, a poster child for the AI bubble. Data center exposure appears exaggerated. Backlog growth is not supported by contract win data. Margins look inflated. The stock is expensive even vs AI darlings like $NVDA. We see 60-80% downside.
Report at https://t.co/L0rkQnRPnD

[Snowcap @SnowCapResearch]

15/ Even if investors believe Sterling’s margins are sustainable, a re-rating in line with civil contractor peers implies 60% downside to its stock price alone. We see even further downside should Sterling’s margins normalize in line with industry peers.

[Snowcap @SnowCapResearch]

Change of plan. Will now be tomorrow morning.

[Apollo Research @ApolloResearchC]

maybe late morning :D

[Snowcap @SnowCapResearch]

This morning we will announce a new multi-bn mkt cap short that we believe is a poster child for the AI bubble in public markets. Stay tuned.