Snowsledge

Space: The Final Frontier

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

Seems likely that we revisit ATH for QQQ this Friday after Bessent nonsense. Then it is goblin town for ~2 years.

Some swing trades on semis are still possible I guess, but it will be really difficult for everyone on leverage.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@naoufal_elh @Unstuckinvestor Can you help me look into mine as well? Had X premium+ annual plan from AppStore, received no prorated refunds as well.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@labubu_trader gold

[Gabriel M Haines @gabrielhaines]

Presenting the official trailer for THE MAX EXTRACTOR

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@DsrPrivate Recession island?

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

Ask Gemini in the Chrome browser should have been a personal agent with remote control ability.

[3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader]

I hope Google can launch their personal AI agents products soon instead of trying to beat OAI/Anth on the coding side.
As one of the top three companies in the world(outside of CN) who can distribute apps to consumers with low cost, also running apps of great penetration and retention.
I have a hard time understanding why they didn’t move forward in this direction. Seems to be a low hanging fruit for them.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@degentradingLSD that kind of revenue from frontier usage is extremely slow to build up though, and hard to justify politically since it does not benefit the masses immediately

[Based @BasedOneX]

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[@dingchilling @dingchilling]

some conspiracy theories are real

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.

You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.

I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.

But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.

Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.

Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.

So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.

If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@DsrPrivate Don’t understand the move in gold

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@Merridew__ People fear the unknown more than anything else

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@henlojseam yeah, his silence is enough imo

Druckenmiller alr spoke for him against Bessent

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

With Jackson Hole tonight, we probably get confirmation that US aims to inflate out the debt with tbills and running off long-duration.

If that is the case, you will want to own both growth and hard assets, not cash. That is SPY and Gold for beta, no sure anymore about ex-US since rates in US is will be competitive for corporates.

For alpha, I guess compute is a long. Not sure about what's the best vehicle to do it though, all the current neoclouds are still operating with the old structure that has no residual value backstop from Nvidia.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@z1vex He would love to rug us using alt perps

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

Would be funny if the whole pump was just a lead to trump rugging the crypto folks once more together with cz. The grift just never stops.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@DsrPrivate Why not for beta?

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@solardefi I'm just guessing btw, no clue

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

Trend of open models catching up to frontier. Trend of smaller models being people’s daily driver. And now smaller models can run on 5090 at home.

Maybe labs revenue peaked? Anthropic 65b ARR is as good as it gets, probably end the year with 80b for ipo at 30x ($2.4t val). On semis, probably good to explore into edge AI now, it’s been too long.

[Snowsledge @Snowsledge]

@solardefi Shortage is real now, but the future pipeline seems too much? Ballpark, we probably still need ~20GW for frontier intelligence that can't be run on your PC.