Lonelywolf

28M
Harmless
Silly
Nomad at heart

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx Sure!

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx Hell yeah!

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@umichvoter

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx *herding not hedging...

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx I want more data obviously and I think there's a range of possibilities but my personal "bet" is around +5. I just think the environment is too blue and I don't think polls are capturing the turnout/persuasion differential due to hedging.

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx Lol I hadn't even seen that! I've just been going off IPEV turnout differential and what few polls have polled on enthusiasm. If they are outright stating it, then they are very worried because if it's "close" you don't give the opposition this kind of open ammo.

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx @DjsokeSpeaking @MatthewLGunning @umichvoter 2018 gov had far stronger candidates in both parties than this race, and the result was 50.22 to 48.83% on an electorate far whiter and more rural than this one (so far). Modelling out IPEV so far, assuming undecideds go KLB, she wins by at least the same margin. Time will tell.

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@LinkofSunshine You're the assemblyman and don't know it. They take all their positions from your tweets. You're the J Jonah Jameson of Twitter.

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx Annie COULD pull it off but imma say Darlene by 2-5 unless the swing is SWINGY... I do hope Annie can clinch it tho

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@davidslosttt I'm gonna get flamed for this but my read is that I think the electorate is going to be bluer than anticipated and most of the polls are either herding or have a lot of undecideds that I believe will break her way. I think she wins by bigger margins than just a point or two

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@davidslosttt I just voted today too!

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx They're juiced up!

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx I'm too warm blooded for this climate 😭 summers are brutal. I'm out in shorts and a Tee till it's like 35f....

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx @DjsokeSpeaking This is why I said yesterday I want to see another week or two of the IPEV. I know polling has this race really close but some of the cross tabs are awful. I don't see how KLB loses if the margins remain this good amongst her strongest voting bloc.

[Lonelywolf @Snowtippedwolf]

@AmarionWx It'll come down to turnout and how indies/leaners break.