Lennaert

Trading Analysis & Education | Daily BTC Updates |
Partnered @OKX | NFA

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

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[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC is rejecting the ~$73,145 previous daily high.

Bitcoin tapped the ~$73,145 imbalance and rejected, which is basically another rejection of the 72K range high region.

The ~$73,145 tap is also the previous daily high (PDH), we see that we're currently rejecting that.

Rejecting the PDH makes the previous daily low (PDL) a logical target, which is laying at ~$70,466 in this case.

If we take out the PDL today, the probability of holding the PDH increases significantly.

So, the local battlefield is the range between the PDL and PDH. Leaning more into a bearish bias though.

We didn't reclaim the 72K region, so I didn't long. I'm still positioned short here, and I took another TP on my long from earlier this week.

If we lose the PDL, the chances are likely we're going to fill the ~$67,000 CME gap. I'll also tp my shorts here.

Last day of the week, let's see.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC is at a decisive moment.

Bitcoin is still trying to move passed the much discussed 72K level.

If price still has bullish intentions for this week, I'd like to see momentum building from here.

I removed one long scenario I posted this morning. Why?

Looking at the chart, if price continues to grind down from here, testing the range lows is a logical reaction.

Also, we still have an unfilled CME gap at ~$67,400. This is also at the rangelow area.

The long after the 72K breakout is still valid, but I don't like the risk of the ~$68,000 low becoming internal range liquidity (IRL).

Therefore, I'm skipping that setup and will wait for better quality places in the range for potential longs.

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Let's see how price behaves the remainder of the week.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC again rejected the ~$72,000 region.

I opened a little hedge-short after rejecting 72K again yesterday, with ~$66,590 liquidity as my final target for this week.

Locally is not the best place in terms of RR when it comes to longs.

So for longs, I'm looking for a reclaim of ~$72,000, or a retest of the ~$69,100 region (4H imbalance & range extremes).

For the longs, if they're triggered, ~$74,800 liquidity is my final target for this week.

For now, Bitcoin stays in the range.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC first bullish target hit for this week.

As mentioned in my Bitcoin analysis on Monday, we had a strong start of the week, and ~$72,000 was the first target.

Target hit, so I TP'd my long and I'm looking for new potential setups for the remainder of the week.

The retest in the ~$68,200 imbalance for respected well, and we created a new big imbalance in this last impulse.

My bias for the rest of the week is slight bullish, so I'm looking for continuations with ~$74,800 liquidity as next target.

The ~$69,100 H4 imbalance is a POI where I'm interested in longs.

If we gain ~$72,000 with strength, I'll look for more aggressive scalp-longs towards ~$74,800.

Can you short locally? Definitely, but it will be small scalp for me since it's against my bias.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

It looks like $BTC want to fill the CME gap around $67,500.

Retesting this area would also mean testing the range extremes, so I'll stay reactive for longs after reversals if we test it.

I'm using if, because in the end we react and do not predict.

Bitcoin took out the PWH, so if it has any bullish intentions for this week, it should hold the ~$65,090 previous weekly low (PWL).

We can even sweep below the area I highlighted. As long as I see a liquidity grab + bullish reversals above the PWL, I'm reactive to longs.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC is testing the ~$68,200 H4 imbalance.

I'm using the weekly Bitcoin chart in addition to my trading plan from yesterday.

We can see that the ~$69,335 previous weekly high (PWH) got taken out.

So statistically, the probability of holding the ~$65,700 previous weekly low (PWL) is high.

But, we also see that we reject the 50% wick fill of the week before, which is an important level.

Taking the above into account, my bias locally is completely neutral.

Imo, these are very hard market conditions to scale positions and navigate.

We also have increased geopolitical tensions, so I'm trading with a lot of caution here. I'm adjusting my risk personally.

Knowing the probability we hold the PWL is high, it could still mean we'll just continue to see chop for the rest of the week between the current levels.

Therefore, I'm watching the reaction after the potential sweep of ~$72,000 liquidity, or potential high-probability reversals after 100% filling the H4 imbalance.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

What’s your $BTC bias for this month?

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC strong start of the week.

Bitcoin is still trading above the ~$65,000 previous monthly low (PML).

As long as price shows bullish orderflow above the PML, my target for longs this week is ~$76,000 (PMH).

We already took out the previous weekly high (PWH) today, which means that statistically, the chance of holding the ~$65,712 previous weekly low is high.

We can see that this last H4 impulse left a big imbalance, and the monthly open price is also in that zone.

So if we get a nice retest of the ~$68,280 imbalance, I'll look for longs after reversals with ~$72,000 liquidity as target for this week.

After sweeping ~$72,000, I'll monitor price to see if we get bearish intentions for potential hedge-shorts.

Losing the ~$65,712 PWL invalidates my bullish thesis for this week. Expecting a deeper sweep when this happens.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

Typo: *As long as price shows bullish orderflow above the PML, my target for this “MONTH” is ~$76,000 (PMH).

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$ETH is testing the extremes on the monthly timeframe.

In terms of range trading, where are the highest RR setups? Right, in the range extremes.

Looking at Ethereum on the monthly, we're currently testing the sell to buy candle that started the impulse to the ATH.

This support area is also the range extreme, which offers the best RR setups.

The sell to buy candle left a big wick, and those get tested most of the times as they are a draw on liquidity.

When we test that wick and show a bullish reversal on the higher timeframes, it could be the start of a big move.

Coming months will be very interesting.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC zoomed out looks like a giant breakout trade.

The monthly structure on Bitcoin looks like a classic breakout setup.

First leg is the breakout, second leg is the first retest, third leg expansion.

The second leg becomes internal range liquidity (IRL), and this gets swept before the real move up.

If this happens on the lower and middle timeframes, I wouldn't hesitate to take the breakout long.

Now, it's happening on the monthly timeframe.

This could get interesting.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC trading plan for next week.

We can see that Bitcoin tested the range low again, but didn't get any follow through.

It just doesn't look convincing to me yet, and another sweep/bullish deviation below the range low would be perfect.

The current range low is becoming very obvious, so a lot of retail stops are probably placed below it.

Sweeping those with a bullish reversal would be the most high-probability long scenario imo.

In the end, we don't predict, but we react. So I'm curious to see what PA will do after the Easter weekend.

For now, happy weekend and Easter!

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC bounced after sweeping the range low.

It's Friday + NFP + bank holiday today, so my approach is different and I'm not eager to trade.

But, we can see that Bitcoin grabbed liquidity at the ~$65,800 range low, and bounced from the extremes.

These are the areas with the best RR in a range, so I'm watching orderflow locally.

We see that after the bounce, price shows bullish intentions and is respecting an H1 imbalance.

We also took all buy-side liquidity in this last pump, so two scenario's are valid. Long and short.

If price continues the bullish orderflow on the MTF, I'll try to trade the continuation towards the ~$68,653 PDH (previous day high).

If price shows bearish intentions and invalidates the bullish orderflow, I'll try to short it to the ~$65,700 PDL (previous day low).

Again, not eager, just monitoring.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC liquidity target taken.

Plan for the rest of the week is to short a potential continuation on Bitcoin to the next ~$65,000 liquidity target.

This last move down pulled more sellers into the market, so definitely interested in shorting the reaction after the sweep.

Can be the sweep of the liquidity above ~$66,961, or if we keep grinding down, an internal sweep. Shorting the lower timeframe MSB when this happens.

Keep in mind that it's NFP tomorrow, not an ideal day to trade.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC dumped after mitigating ~$69,180 liquidity.

We can clearly see that Bitcoin has bearish intentions as it took out buy-side liquidity and dumped.

Todays daily candle rejected the previous daily high and had a big bearish displacement.

For trades today, I'm only looking to add a potential short if we get a bearish reaction in the ~$67,800 imbalance.

Besides the fact price rejected the previous daily high, @BrighterData distance statistics, based on the last 18 months of data, tells us that there's a 7.2% we take out the current daily high.

Therefore, the probability the ~$68,653 high holds is significantly higher.

My target for the short will be the liquidity below ~$65,998.

The rangebound continues.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC nice bounce from the range low.

As we can see, Bitcoin is showing bullish orderflow since it grabbed liquidity at ~$64,953.

Yesterdays long played out nicely, and in terms of range trading: If the rangelow is defended, the probabilities of testing the range high increases.

How I approach this, I just try to follow the bullish orderflow until proven otherwise.

We're currently trading in major liquidity pools, so if we get a local bearish MSB, I'm willing to short towards the rangelow.

Price formed an H4 imbalance at ~$68,353, which is also around the monthly open price. Interesting for scalp-longs after LTF reversals.

My final target for longs is the ~$72,000 range high, which is also the previous weekly high. This makes it an even more interesting target.

1st day April, let's see.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC is entering interesting long zones.

As mentioned yesterday, Bitcoin is testing the rangelow. And after the last liquidity sweep, price left a huge wick.

We know big wicks are a draw on liquidity, and get filled most of the times.

So if we retest that ~$65,600 wick (preferably 50% or more), I'm looking for longs after LTF reversals. My targets will be ~$69,470 and ~$72,000 liquidity.

Price is still respecting the rangelow, so I'm not interested in shorting here. Best place to short is at the ~$72,000 rangehigh imo.

But since HTF bias and orderflow is bearish, I'm willing to short the sweep of ~$69,470 too if we get a bearish MSB.

Let's see what happens this last day of March.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC beautiful range PA.

Yesterdays long after grabbing weekend liquidity at the rangelow played out nicely.

Like I mentioned yesterday, I still approach longs as relief bounces since the HTF narrative is still down.

In terms of range trading, respecting the rangelow often results in testing the rangehigh. In this case the high is at ~$72,000.

I'm still interested in the reaction after sweeping ~$69,478 liquidity. If we get a strong bearish MSB there, I'm shorting it.

Testing the ~$72,000 rangehigh is also very interesting for shorts after the MSB.

If we get another deviation below the range low, it's simply waiting for high-probability reversals for longs.

Let's see what Bitcoin does this week.

[Lennaert Snyder @LennaertSnyder]

$BTC continues the range.

My plan for Bitcoin is to trade the range until proven otherwise.

HTF pressure remains down, so I'm looking to add shorts after grabbing liquidity at ~$69,487 and/or the ~$72,000 range high.

I'm also looking for longs, but I'm approaching it as catching a potential relief bounce.

We're trading at the range low here, so longs after high-probability reversals towards the liquidity above us is legit.

If we get another range deviation below the ~$65,127 rangelow, I'm longing the reversal too.

The ~$60,000 low is a very interesting liquidity pool to target imo.

Let's see what next week brings.