Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸

Small business owner, student, swing trader, traveler. Read, think, listen, act. Discipline, patience, loyalty, love. $BTC $ADA $TSLA

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@stelzner_n1150 I didn’t want to vote for a communist retard.

[Ethan Levins 🇺🇸 @EthanLevins2]

Netanyahu is currently here:

31.78026° N, 35.20054° E

Israeli security services need to do a better job at hiding his movements, this one was easy today.

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@IsraelMFA Satanist talking about morals… stfu

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@TheTweetOfGod Don’t be such a fag God

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@AgentSelf99b @JeremyCom Shocking that all these ballots came from Skid Row where there’s a bunch of homeless people and NGO’s that work to get those ballot harvested

[Jeremy Padawer @JeremyCom]

The odds of Nithya Raman receiving 40% of the vote yesterday are “LESS LIKELY than picking ONE GRAIN OF SAND on Earth dozens of times in a row.” I believe elections tend to be fair. Someone help me make sense of math that seems impossible…

I ASKED CHATGPT -
“What is the statistical likelihood that 40% of votes from a “new batch” of ballots go to a candidate who received 24% of votes from all other batches that represented 95% of counted electorate. Give me a % odds.”

The Answer (Part 1) -
“Assuming the candidate’s “true” share is 24%, the odds that a random new batch lands at 40% or higher depends on batch size:
50 ballots
0.88%
100 ballots
0.028%
200 ballots
0.00004%
500 ballots
~0.00000000000018%
1,000 ballots
~0.0000000000000000000000000035%”

My follow up -
“Assume 40,000 ballots. Are the odds one in a billion? One in a trillion? Worse? This seems to be happening in Los Angeles Mayor’s race between Mayor Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.”

The Answer (Part 2) -
“If the 40,000-ballot batch were drawn from the same population that produced 24% support in the other 95% of votes, then seeing 40% support in that batch would be far beyond “one in a billion” or “one in a trillion.”

75 standard deviations is in an entirely different universe.

The probability is approximately:

~10⁻¹²²⁰

or about

1 chance in 10¹²²⁰

That’s a number with roughly 1,220 zeros after the 1.

Statistically, if the batch were truly a random sample of the same electorate, the odds are so small that statisticians would effectively treat the event as impossible. The usual conclusion would not be “wow, what a lucky fluctuation,” but rather that the batch is not representative of the earlier ballots—for example, it came from a different geographic area, voting method, demographic group, or subset of voters.

So yes: much worse than one in a billion, much worse than one in a trillion, and vastly smaller than any probability encountered in ordinary statistical analysis.”

My follow up -
“More grains of sand on earth than the likelihood of this?”

The Answer (Part 3) -
“Yes. Much, much more.

Estimated grains of sand on Earth are often put around 10¹⁸ to 10²⁰.

Your odds example was roughly:

1 in 10¹²²⁰

So this is not just “less likely than picking one grain of sand on Earth.”

It’s more like picking the right grain of sand on Earth correctly over and over again dozens of times in a row.”

Sincerely,
Jeremy Padawer
https://t.co/POrFyAfNhH

@spencerpratt @BoredElonMusk @Hotshot_Movie @415FirePhoto
#losangeles #la #fyp #mayor

[Adriana Vitan Balint @adrianavbalint]

'Ucrainenii au încărcat și au direcționat drona pentru aruncarea în aer a terminalului de petrol, contînd și pe alăturatul depozit de azotat de amoniu. Asta ar fi ras instantaneu cu totul cam jumătate din Constanța și, mai ales, ar fi șters urmele, exploziile spulberînd orice firicel din drona controlată permanent de atacatorul ucrainean.

Dacă nimerea, drona era rusească - vorba unui amic pe care-l prețuiesc mult. Doar că drona s-a înfipt și s-a blocat în balizele antipoluare. N-a mai putut mișca.

În tot acest timp, operatorul ucrainean al dronei avea permanent control vizual satelitar, în timp real, prin camerele video ale sculei, perfect funcțională cu excepția agățării ei în balize. Operatorul a văzut astfel că niște unii s-au apropiat și că filmează drona de la nici 10 metri distanță. Deci obiectul delict era nu doar blocat, ci deconspirat și ușor atribuibil statului producător și utilizator cu mare succes. E plin internetul de povești eroice despre lovirea cu dînsele, în două rînduri, a Podului Crimeei, între altele.

Cînd ucrainenii au văzut,  în timp real, că românii filmează drona neatinsă au sunat la București înainte s-o detoneze controlat. Au sunat nu din dragoste aliată, ci pentru a distruge în siguranță electronica în care încărcaseră traseul și ținta prestabilite. Altfel s-ar fi dovedit cu probe pipăibile că au țintit cu premeditare ce au țintit.

Pierdea controlului dronei prin bruiaj rusesc - adică varianta oficializată inclusiv de la cel mai înalt nivel în România - e o harneală pentru vîrsta unui școlar neatent de clasa a patra. Las' că rușii s-a lins pe bot de Starlink-ul american cu antena la vedere pe drona filmată. "Pierderea controlului" e anulată de telefonul de la ucraineni care a anuntat detonarea dispozitivului pentru - repet - distrugerea probei.

Pe scurt: ne-a ferit Dumnezeu.
Ne-a ferit numai bunul Dumnezeu, cu niște balize antipoluare agățate de coada unei monstruozități cu care România - deci NATO - trebuia tîrîtă în război, nenorociților!!!"
Sorin Faur, jurnalist

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@MOSSADil Based.

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@dannydanon @petrogustavo What are Israel’s lines? Creating an Epstein class? Murdering children? Those don’t seem to be it

[Mason-Dixon Latin Mass Society @MDLatinMass]

An 18-line Latin prayer proclaiming Christ as the Son of God, invoking Saint Titus, containing the words of Saint Paul, and carried by a man well over a hundred years before the first Bible ever existed, is the most Catholic thing you'll see today.

[MV33Racing🏎 @MV33Racing]

Kimi Antonelli just matched Hamilton’s record with 5 wins in a row.

As a teenager.
In his second year in F1.

A new star is born 🇮🇹

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@verstappenews Bro has a kid at home or at least his sim

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@AdrianP_doc Sure, but it wasn’t Russia trying to blowup you’re ports

[DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican]

Hello Mr. Hunter Biden,

You're getting six-digit likes on every post lately. I don't have any hope to ratio you or whatever through traditional "Hello" means.

But for those uninitiated, those who are captivated by your fake-humble persona obviously PR-engineered to capture unsuspecting disaffected Republicans:

You are not some humility, witty guy turning over a new leaf. You are the ultimate proof of nepotism, everything that the so-called "Epstein Class" is supposed to represent.

Let me explain - off the top of my head.

You were a board member of USGLC. U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. The most powerful NGO that nobody's ever heard of. Last year, I documented in several threads, how Liz Schrayer, USGLC lead, took credit for ramming through a 90 billion dollar bill for Ukraine in 2024, even as @mattvanswol demonstrated that Western North Carolina got zero help in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene because FEMA threw up their hands and said they ran out of funds.

USGLC, arguably, is the most powerful NGO that nobody has ever heard of. It includes a bunch of corporations, a bunch of nonprofit leads, and ... for some magical reason, I documented, extensively, linked, that Liz Schrayer started pursuing you in 2012. During the Obama years, when you were Biden's son. Are you a former Secretary of State? No. Are you a CEO of a Fortune 500 company? No. That puts you below the average USGLC board member, by a good tier.

So what DID get you on USGLC? The only reason: that you were the son of a sitting Vice President known for corruption, and you yourself were known for corruption.

You are not "folksy." You are the worst of the worst of the elite. Most of the elite, at least, get their credentials through Georgetown/George Washington/Harvard Kennedy. You got yours purely on nepotism. Any photographs you have of yourself at motels is proof that you are so incompetent that you waste all your money, not that you come from humble beginnings. Because others like @MarcoPolo501c3 have thoroughly documented that you benefited a great deal from your nepotism.

You even tried to bait those in with saying you prefer to keep immigration "legal" - but we all know the trap that keeps illegal immgrants here: outlaw deportations, and make every immigrant case "asylum", and magically, everyone who might've been here illegally a few years ago is legal.

You may get 175K likes on your semi-subverting, PR-designed photographs. But those of us who know, know you're fake.

https://t.co/vMml22uCbu

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@notgaetti Fuck off fag

[Chase Geiser @realchasegeiser]

If section 224 of the NDAA passes we should take up arms and overthrow our own government, just as our founders said in the Declaration of Independence.

[Laura Powell @LauraPowellEsq]

“You HAVE to wear an AIDS ribbon.”

“I have to?”

“Yes!”

“See, that’s why I don’t want to.”

[Ivan Vazquez 🐐🇺🇸 @socalivan]

@elonmusk @EthanforMD @grok There is no voting out of this

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@EthanforMD Is this accurate? @grok