Jerome Kerviel

Was that wrong? Should I not have done that?

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

IOW, we should have offsetting winners if we've discovered a way to improve efficiency of AI by 30x. Whoever MSFT/OpenAI were planning on selling all these AI products to is a major winner here. Who are they? And why aren't they up on this?

CC @TheStalwart @MartinShkreli

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

One oddity with this DeepSeek market meltdown...

Presumably all this AI spend by the hyperscalers was planned to help them sell AI products to end users (e.g., Disney? CVS?), at high cost. Now lets say DeepSeek has reduced costs by 30x. Bad for the hyperscalers... (1/x)

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

But for end users of AI products, this is a massive win. They can now buy AI at a fraction of the cost. It’s like discovering a way to refine oil 30x more efficiently—Exxon would be panicked, but everyone else would be cheering, and the overall market would be way up.

(3/x).

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@LionelHutz_Esq @SJOldValueGuy Finally, you also have competition from used bags here (e.g., ThredUp). People are deciding between a new Kors bag, or a used Gucci bag at the same price point in other words.

The docs are bad, so the FTC could still win, but the underlying case is very dubious.

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@LionelHutz_Esq @SJOldValueGuy The market also has issues around the lack of a price discontinuity. If the FTC defines the market as $200-500 bags, the bags at the $150 and $650 price range still provide some competitive constraint at the top and bottom end. Pricing in this space in continuous IOW.

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@Dimi You see the statement from the USW saying what they want? Sounds constructive?

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@Dimi Hey Demetri - great scoop. Curious - when you write the WH has informed the Japanese of the decision, does that mean his decision on the deal, or the decision to issue a statement?

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@matthewstoller Intel is functionally a US state owned company after the CHIPS Act, so I get it.

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@BongCapital "Funding secured"

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

Re: $X - @elonmusk can you confirm you will be putting in a topping bid on $CLF's offer for US Steel (ticker X).

Great strategic asset for Tesla (steel), SpaceX (steel, again), and https://t.co/vcH4lv5hsH (X ticker).

Almost hard to imagine it not happening?

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@vamoscapital Huge. Biggest W of the year.

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

Quick thread on one of the more interesting (and obscure) antitrust merger investigations going on in the world. Welcome to UNH/EMIS, currently under review by the CMA: https://t.co/QcpV0j51wj

A high level summary follows:

1/x

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@Elibietti This is a good point conceptually, but also, the reality is that the quality of European competition/IO scholarship is quite low, so it may well be that there is little to cite to over here.

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

@NeilRetail CC @PGunigantiAT

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

Great analysis here by @NeilRetail. https://t.co/awGmpw50Ek.

Curious Neil if you think there's any competitive issue here? Rolling up Michael Kors/Kate Spade/Coach wouldn't leave a lot of competitors in the accessible luxury space for handbags, right?

[Neil Saunders @NeilRetail]

Great to chat with Reuters about the Tapestry / Capri deal. The luxury market is slowing down so, in theory, a merger of two houses will help reduce costs. The challenge remains how to boost sales growth - especially at the tarnished Michael Kors brand.

https://t.co/rv31IoJxof

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

A lot of people in finance are tracking LK99 prediction markets, but the actual market that matters for us is:

https://t.co/tWuQ90jpoY

Markets closed for at least 1, maybe 2 days if a president dies.

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

MAE https://t.co/3UxEXCCe4S via @imgflip

[Jerome Kerviel @SocgenJerome]

$SIMO / $MXL