Jay Johnston

Commercial Banker, Non-Professional Trader "The King of Scratch", Tweeting trading, economics, and finance.

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

Banks & CRE. Classically the largest source of bank failures. Now there is a lot of concern about how this plays out this time. Let's look at some cursory considerations. CRE as % of assets. Low for big banks, not so much for small ones.

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@jedimarkus77 @zerohedge ����

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

Wife is Latina , so it's a thing. Fortunately for me she likes American Football even more. Lol

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

I'd probably echo most people when I say I think soccer is the stupidest game I have ever seen. I've had the misfortune of having to watch two of these now. (Penalties, poor theatrical faking, probably corrupt it seems).

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

How do we feel about long gold and oil? Not a bad look really. Also seems odd that YM (Dow) looks better than the others..hmm.

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@sweinand Yup, good book

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@Schornack You're out here? Hope you are enjoying it.

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@tweetatweir @EconstratPB Hahaha 😂. I needed that laugh

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@Molson_Hart @amznsellerhelp So insane.. Monopoly real time case study stuff. Sorry to hear it

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@tweetatweir Nah. Just life has put me in a different mindset these days.

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

I keep typing posts & deleting them. That's where I am now..

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

I will say none of those three decisions would have been extremely serious, but they were wrong just the same and would have made things worse not better

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

Ridiculous. I just went through medical hell and used LLM to avoid three wrong doctor recommendations in two weeks, overriding their call. Thank human ingenuity for LLMs. I can see where blind reliance on it would be a problem if they weren't so bad already.

[Roger @rdd147]

Doctors 25% more likely to miss a diagnosis on a patient within 3 months after Ai is implemented. The results indicate Ai has an immediate negative effect on professionals skillsets vs prolonged reliance.

https://t.co/ciPB3DdR2J

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

What a long painful trip that was. Three procedures, two trips to the ER on complications, a university hospital in Seattle. Very bad period of my life. Anyways increasingly spending more time trying to fix my health than econ or finance sadly

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

Been in ER since morning. Not in a great place in more ways than one. Certainly some more medical stories out of this. But just focusing on the now. Heading for more procedures shortly. Doc sounds pissed he has to be here and is in a hurry, can only hope he does fuck up

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

Doesn't fuck it up i hope..lots of pain meds at least I guess

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@Jesse_Livermore Nope. But i'm not sure I have the guts to do what is implied here.

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@HegedusAero @toiletkingcap @WarrenPies @EconstratPB Well I suppose if you didn't have confidence in their keen judgement you would save/invest with them to start. :) "just say 'no' to dividends, believe in the retained"

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@HegedusAero @toiletkingcap @WarrenPies @EconstratPB 1) doesn't AI investment come from personal savings not lower it? Investing in corp is use of savings, no? 2) corps could fund from record profits (retained earn.) or 3) finance CAPEX from banks via money creation to leverage current period income?

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

An amazingly broad survey of community banks in the northwest and potential acquisitions. Well done. Some serious work went into this.

[Luden @ArbitrageIsSexy]

I spent months building a field guide to Pacific Northwest community bank M&A. While i was writing it, Banner Corporation announced the exact acquisition my analysis predicted. The compression trade is out now:
https://t.co/WrpLpZqPuc

[Jay Johnston @Solomon_Slate]

@ArbitrageIsSexy Quite the comprehensive piece. I know many of these banks from the ground level. One aspect to think more about may be NOOCRE levels. Organic growth in this size range is heavy to it, so banks that are on the upper edge likely to play a larger factor in "who".