SpaceMuse

Mundane financial astrology. Macro and technical analysis. Liquidity mapping. CRYPTO.

Sentiment: 📉

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

Black Wednesday 2.0 is coming.

RE: Yen. People now see there are major structural deficiencies and plumbing problems. Some analysts are calling for 200 USD/JPY, noting Japan's unsolvable structural problems. BUT JAPAN DOES NOT EXIST IN A VACUUM. This requires macro analysis.

Why is Scott Bessent so opposed to "JPY volatility"? Why is Bessent forcing Japan to use the Fed’s FIMA Repo Facility?

Because Japan is a primary pillar of US dollar hegemony. They are the largest foreign US Treasury holder. And since they are facing a currency crisis -- triggered by import-related inflation -- they must dump those US treasuries to support the Yen. And that is exactly why long-term US treasury yields have been surging.

This creates an obvious optics problem for the US government: surging treasury yields suggests declining confidence in the US government's ability to repay its debts. It suggests declining confidence in the USD. NOW WE HAVE ARRIVED AT THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM.

So, there are two fundamental premises we must accept:

1. Yen collapse will not be permitted
2. US Treasury market collapse will not be permitted

There is only one nuclear option that addresses both problems: UNWINDING THE YEN CARRY TRADE.

Yen bears were screaming that intervention would have no effect at 164. Now we're at 158. They point to the BOJ's recent $35 billion intervention and say, "JPY is already back to 158 (from 155)! Intervention is futile!"

But they are missing the forest for the trees. A fundamental truth about markets -- they only care about liquidity. It is true that Japan lacks the funds to stabilize the Yen market through forex intervention alone.

This doesn't matter, because Japan will be using YEN-SHORT CARRY TRADER LIQUIDITY to do the intervention for them. Forex markets are unregulated, so the data is opaque. But the Yen carry trade is estimated to be $250 BILLION - $20 TRILLION in size. (So that $35 billion BOJ intervention is truly a drop in the bucket!)

^^ THAT IS THE LIQUIDITY JAPAN WILL BE USING TO COLLAPSE USD/JPY AND PERMANENTLY RE-PRICE ITS CURRENCY.

The BOJ only needs to dump enough dollars to BEGIN unwinding the carry traders. Once that happens, the forced liquidations will cause a feedback loop that does all the work for them. An avalanche of USD/JPY margin calls will cause forced liquidations across western financial markets -- that USD liquidity will then be used to buy back their Yen obligations. This will cause JPY to surge.

Now, aside from Japanese domestic markets and US Treasuries -- why does this matter? To answer that, we need to look at where Yen-short carry traders are investing the funds. Again, since the forex markets and shadow banking pipelines that carry traders use are highly unregulated, we can't point to any conclusive reports that tell us exactly where the money is going. But using CFTC positioning data, Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting, BIS cross-border banking statistics, and in particular, asymmetric correlation tracking across global asset classes -- we can be fairly sure of two things:

1. Yen carry traders are net long US mega-cap tech equities, high-yield fixed income, emerging market sovereign debt, and digital assets (bitcoin).
2. If the yen carry trade unwinds, THESE MARKETS WILL DECLINE SEVERELY -- as part of a larger global asset bubble deflation crisis.

As opaque as the forex market is, we know that the global Yen-short trade is ~ the largest it has ever been.

Meanwhile, the Japanese domestic retail Yen-long trade is ~ the largest it has ever been.

Choose wisely which side you bet on, because the outcome has massive implications for global markets.

[Bilbo Faggins @Bilbofagginzzz]

https://t.co/kp5ZhN5ccM

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

@MaddyViews You're almost there: Let's talk about the Jews

Israel was invented 75 years ago. Its population was imported.

Jewish supremacy has been with us for thousands of years

Where do you think Israeli society came from?

It's the Jews...

[Truth Troll Official™️ @truthtroll_X]

I was taught that Hitler hated all non-white people…?

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

And so it continues... Our economic debates seem utterly disconnected from the reality.

That reality: This is an economy mostly creating healthcare jobs, and it does so month after month, and everything else is just noise.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

Always remember when an Israeli intelligence agent went on 60 Minutes and said this:

“We create a pretend world. We are a global production company: We write the screenplay. We are the directors, producers, the main actors, and the world is our stage.”

[Deep Leaks @DeepLeaksHQ]

Dear US Tax payers

Just to let you know, that while you struggle to pay your rent, educate your kids and save something for a "rainy day"

The Pentagon "accidentally" paid Dictator Zelensky an Extra $6.2 billion of your money

"An accounting error"

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

The truth about #antisemitism:

"Here’s a 35-minute compilation of FAKE 'anti-semitic hate crimes' reported and verified by mainstream media.

False flags are their go-to strategy."
https://t.co/cb7bITP9fk

[Caitlin Johnstone @caitoz]

Black person explaining what racism is: It’s when we’re killed and systemically abused and deprived of opportunities because of our race.

Zionist explaining what antisemitism is: It’s when someone says Jews aren’t entitled to an ethnostate located in the region described in their ancient scriptures where thousands of years ago people who practiced a similar religion used to live, or when someone opposes sending missiles to that ethnostate.

[Sammy Obeid @SammyObeid]

FlyDubai or Don’t Buy it?

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

@terahashmining1 *The Jews

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

@dailyfoodsfacts Sadly, this is the largest pasture-raised egg company (sold in Whole Foods): "Vital Farms lists corn and soy as its top feed ingredients. Marigold and paprika in the feed help deepen the yolk color."

[Nicolas Hulscher, MPH @NicHulscher]

This is insane…

An advanced Alzheimer’s patient just REGAINED her memory, speech, mobility, AND bladder control after a SINGLE dose of psilocybin.

There are NO Alzheimer’s drugs capable of doing anything CLOSE to this.

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

They just had to outdo NAZA 🤣

Israelis are so embarrassing. Truly a collectively mentally ill society...

[MichaelRapaport @MichaelRapaport]

Unbelievable night in ISRAEL.

I humbly received a RECORD-BREAKING 26-MINUTE STANDING OVATION in ISRAEL.

What an honor. 26 MINUTES!!!

I was sure it was gonna stop at 19:48, but it just kept going & going & going.

I didn’t even know they timed these things, but WOW — 26 minutes!

Apparently a film once got a 25-minute standing ovation in Venice, Italy, but NOW the record is held by the incredible ZIONIST JEWS OF ISRAEL!!!

So #Humble #ChagSameach 🇮🇱

[Ryan @forbiddenmerch]

Hey @grok

Is this a real passage from the Talmud?

[Jozu 🇵🇦 @JozuJoestarr]

becoming an adult is realizing that the laws they taught you about in school mean nothing. this is clearly a monopoly

[Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur oPt @FranceskAlbs]

Perchè mai in Italia si dovrebbe insegnare la cultura israeliana??

Perchè è parte dell'israelizzazione della società che l'elite al governo (e parte di quella all'opposizione) propugna.

Spero che il popolo italiano si opponga a questa vergogna annunciata.

La storia siamo noi.

[Dr Rahmeh Aladwan @doctor_rahmeh]

98–99% of synagogues in the world are zionist but zionism has nothing to do with Judaism.

[Weimar William @WeimarWillhelm]

RAF pilot recounts destroying Dresden

“It was evil.”

“We were supposed to be the good guys.”

“We ended up being worse than the third Reich.”

[SpaceMuse @Space_Muse]

@AllenR_Smith @billymacdermott There is no evidence of Uyghur genocide...