Prime_Time

Private Credit / High Yield / Distressed - Strive to be a going concern - Definitely not investment advice

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

As an efficient markets advocate I refuse to date anyone

Any quality person who wants to be in a relationship would be in one. Everyone else either doesn’t want to or has issues. No free lunch

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

All host countries are out

Everyone leave and finish playing at home

This isn’t fun anymore

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

Most political economic beliefs come down to people weighing short term benefits vs long term benefits

Socialist policies help “working class” in the short term and hurt in the long term

Free markets hurt “working class” in the short term but help in the long term

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

When are airline margins supposed to benefit from Ozempic again? Are we ready to admit that was idiotic?

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

A vacation to some remote place feels like rehab before returning to the NYC trap house with all your work addicted friends

Life hits right when you have both

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

I’m probably a simpleton but I’ve seen multiple longer-term investors say markets are broken and I just don’t get it..

Markets are mis-pricing securities so there is LESS opportunity somehow? Or things stay mis-priced for longer so risk mgmt is tougher? Idk doesn’t resonate..

[Arrakis Global @ArrakisGlobal]

Shifting from an investor... to a trader. A few thoughts.

LT Investing died for me in 2022. The nature and structure of markets, the geopolitical paradigm and how asset pricing works today meant I had to shift my approach.

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

These are incredible businesses if you’re top 5-7 and shit otherwise.. comp, tech, strat diversity. The strategy doesn’t work in small scale

Capacity is interesting too. As the big shops get bigger, each incremental unit of alpha gets tougher, making it harder to launch

[Bloomberg @business]

Bobby Jain and Millennium have struck a deal that will see his eponymous firm return all external cash and manage money exclusively for his former boss’s hedge fund empire https://t.co/Zuft5QwTfK

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

Spot on…

For a senior loan to take a loss, PE needs to get zero’d… LME? Sure there will be LME but that’s marginal. PE is a a disaster if you think private credit has issues.. and I also believe private credit has issue.

[High Yield Harry @HighyieldHarry]

I'm still scratching my head a bit at how the fintwit narrative is Private Credit is all going to zero but somehow Private Equity problems aren't getting mentioned at all.

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

@__paleologo (1) managing overall leverage in a L/S portfolio. Discussed in chapter 6 through idio and signal but maybe not as directly as wished (2) factors in credit markets and how those relate to equity markets (credit vs equity duration or similar) and (3) managing center book vs pod

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

@paulswaney3 INTEGRATION

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

Tell me you have zero knowledge of what a hedge fund does…

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Citadel’s 9.3% return sounds bad until you realize it’s actually worse.

The S&P 500 is up roughly 17% this year. A Vanguard index fund charging 0.04% would have nearly doubled Citadel’s performance.

But here’s what makes this story interesting: Citadel doesn’t charge 2 and 20 like normal hedge funds. They use a passthrough model where investors cover everything from trader bonuses to phone bills. Total annual costs often exceed 5% of assets, plus 20% of gains.

So that 9.3% gross return? After fees, many LPs are looking at 3-4% net. In a year when you could’ve made 17% doing literally nothing.

The natural gas angle is what everyone will focus on. In 2024, Citadel’s commodities desk generated $4 billion in profits, mostly from nat gas trades. That same thesis went sideways in 2025.

But the real story here is simpler: Wellington has returned 19.4% annually since 1990. That track record is why investors pay those fees. One mediocre year doesn’t change the math. Ken Griffin has earned the benefit of the doubt.

The question is whether his LPs agree, or whether some of that $66 billion starts looking for the exits.

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

Miami needs true public transportation… then I’ll buy into these renderings

[Lost Nomad @lost_nomad__]

People don’t realize yet that Miami is America’s 3rd largest skyscraper city, and it will pass Chicago soon for 2nd place in the 2030s

Miami is the 21st Century’s Los Angeles. It’s a MAJOR world player now

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

The current LME/restructuring landscape is wild if you think about it..

Image how boring it was when companies just filed ch11 and restructured like adults

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

@BigJohn043 I think this a true fact but takeaway is incorrect. Many VP level people I know are frustrated with mega funds. There are so many layers of people in line to be an MD/deal lead that you know you won’t get there, especially with fundraising stagnating

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

@the_P_God I got “water makes you weak” — not only are you currently a bitch if you’re thirsty but drinking water makes you more of a bitch.. youth football coaches were their own breed

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

Do not work at a fund where people care about the order of names on an email..

.. that is all

[Darth Powell @VladTheInflator]

Want to solve the fake housing crisis?

Singapore already gave us the map

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

@RudyHavenstein Can you argue the CEOs got off free (or benefited)? Absolutely.. doesn’t mean the monetary & fiscal policy response was wrong. That’s more of a legal comment on how management should have been handled.

[Prime_Time @Special_Sits]

@BigJohn043 I assume continuation funds aren’t included? Total dollars committed to PE may be flat still becuase distributions have been so low. Usually new commitments replace distributions so may be missing a puzzle piece here to show the full story (but maybe not also…)