Spire

Improving life on Earth with data from space 🌎

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Looking ahead: Atlantic air will gradually cool France and the U.K. over the coming days.

But the hottest conditions are expected to shift into parts of central, southern, and eastern Europe, another reminder that understanding where risk moves next is just as important as where it starts.

Learn more: https://t.co/98jLCJCNgE

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

A record-shattering heat wave has spread across Western Europe, driven by a stubborn heat dome that is pulling hot air northward from North Africa.

Here’s why businesses are paying attention. 🧵

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

For industries where weather drives operational and financial decisions, like energy, utilities, and agriculture, understanding what’s coming next is increasingly critical.

Spire helps organizations and governments anticipate evolving risk through:
• 3 km high-resolution forecasts
• AI-powered sub-seasonal forecasts
• Weather regime & anomaly guidance
• Satellite-based soil moisture intelligence (historical, near-real-time, and long-range forecasts)

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

It’s official: after months of anticipation, El Niño has arrived.

According to NOAA, there is a 63% chance it will become a "very strong" event. If current projections hold (Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies of +2.2°C to +2.8°C), it would rank among the strongest El Niños on record alongside 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

In our latest blog, we explore what this means for weather risk, market volatility, and decision-making across agriculture, energy, commodity trading, and insurance.

Read more about the business impacts of El Niño and how space-based data can help organizations stay ahead: https://t.co/yDJzj8KvLG

#ElNino #WeatherRisk

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Are you attending Commodity Trading Week Americas this week?

Weather drives commodity markets, and Spire gives you the data edge for trading across every time horizon.

From insights into soft commodities and crop risks to energy trading intelligence, our solutions are comprehensive and powered by proprietary space-based data.

We offer high-resolution, global, and AI-driven sub-seasonal (S2S) models, plus specialized power generation forecasts for wind and solar.

Our soil moisture intelligence includes a 40-year historical archive of data, near real-time insights, and long-range soil moisture forecasts.

To discuss your use case or potential collaborations, book a meeting with Jimmy Garrison: https://t.co/2EesEWUKLj

#CTW2026 #CommodityTrading #CommodityTradingWeek #WeatherIntelligence

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Try it yourself. Over 3 months of reforecast history is now live on the @EarthmoverHQ Data Marketplace, and it's free to access, no subscription required: https://t.co/8PMjdiKhid

*Spire conducted independent validation of data from its AI-S2S model, outside of the training and fine-tuning period, against ECMWF forecast data from January 1 - February 15, 2026. The ECMWF data used in this validation is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. These results are based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) – ©2026 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source https://t.co/eJvLAEXBz8.

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Sub-seasonal forecasting, especially at weeks 3-6, is a notoriously difficult horizon for skill to be added. Physics-based models struggle to beat climatology in that window.

Most sub-seasonal forecasts, including the commercial ones, are post-processed ECMWF sub-seasonal range (S2S) forecasts. When the market is all reading the same signal, there's no edge.

Spire AI-S2S is 100% independent of any public sub-seasonal model and provides probabilistic forecasts out to 46 days, including weather regimes, anomalies, percentiles, and climatological exceedance probabilities. It's a 200-member ensemble built entirely in-house and designed specifically to maintain skill in the range where other models trend toward climatology.

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

In a Jan. 1 - Feb. 15, 2026, verification against ERA5:
→ 14.76% improvement over ECMWF S2S* on 2-m temperature, weeks 3-6
→ 4.70% improvement over ECMWF S2S* on 500 hPa geopotential heights, weeks 3-6
→ Outperforms climatology by substantial margins across weeks 1-6

Both variables evaluated are critical for power and gas trading, as well as agriculture.

Recent improvements to initial conditions have led to meaningful gains, pushing results beyond what was previously published in a press release.

Read the full validation: https://t.co/8g6449nZrn

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

We're excited to announce a strategic partnership with @SchaefflerGroup to build sovereign European space infrastructure — industrialized in Germany, flight-proven in orbit, and deployable at scale for defense, weather, civil security, and critical infrastructure missions.

The partnership combines Schaeffler's precision engineering and manufacturing scale with our proven satellite platform expertise and extensive flight heritage, to establish a new European standard for space-industrial capability.

Read more: https://t.co/uD8FS6sxJu

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Adding the model validation chart for those who want a closer look at the numbers:

Over a 6-week verification period, Spire's AI-S2S showed a 14.2% improvement over ECMWF's S2S on 2-m temperature and a 3.23% improvement on 500-mb heights,* scored using CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score; lower = higher forecast skill). Each model was scored on its native grid against ERA5 reanalysis.

*Spire conducted independent validation of data from its AI-S2S model, outside of the training and fine-tuning period, against ECMWF forecast data from January 1-February 15, 2026. The ECMWF data used in this validation is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. These results are based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) – ©2026 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source https://t.co/eJvLAEY9oG.

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Most energy trading desks run on the same public models, shrinking edge.

Today, we're announcing an expanded intraday-to-45-day forecast stack, purpose-built for energy trading desks and powered by our proprietary space-based data.

Validated against ERA5 reanalysis, Spire's AI-S2S ensemble model outperformed the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub-seasonal-range (S2S) forecasts by 14.2% on surface temperatures at 3-6 weeks from January 1 to February 15, 2026.

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

"Weather is now the single biggest unpriced variable in energy markets — and the traders who forecast it better win."
— Shawn Mechelke, Spire GM of Weather, Climate, and Aviation

Stop trading on the same forecast as your competitors, see the weather differently, and act faster. Learn more: https://t.co/INipfU4ra3

#EnergyTrading #PowerTrading #PowerMarkets #WeatherIntelligence #RenewableEnergy

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

Airport operations run on real-time data — and knowing where every aircraft is, at every moment, is foundational to everything else.

That's why we're excited to share we've been selected by @AmadeusITGroup to integrate our real-time ground and space-based aircraft tracking into the Amadeus Virtual Airport Operations Center (vAPOC), enriching the platform's operational intelligence with continuous global aircraft visibility to support daily operations and disruption management.

Read more: https://t.co/YIDDgmoIpM

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

One week out: we’re joining @EarthmoverHQ for a webinar you won't want to miss, and if you work in energy, insurance, or climate risk, that's especially true.

On May 21, Spire's Director of Weather Prediction and AI, Dr. Tom Gowan (@tommgowan), sits down with Earthmover CEO Dr. Ryan Abernathey (@rabernat) to break down our AI-driven sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecast model (AI-S2S), which delivers forecasts and weather regimes up to six weeks ahead, updated daily, and built on data from one of the world's largest commercial satellite constellations.

In 45 minutes, we'll cover the science, the dataset, and real-world applications, which can be unlocked now through the Earthmover Data Marketplace.

📅 Thursday, May 21 | ⏰ 11:00–11:45 am ET | 🚀 Register here: https://t.co/0yh5STEM1p

[Spire @SpireGlobal]

We are excited to announce that our satellite manufacturing facility in Munich is now open and operational — establishing in-country satellite production to support sovereign space-based intelligence in Germany.

The facility features:

• An ISO-certified clean room
• End-to-end satellite manufacturing, integration and testing capabilities
• Mission-specific payload development
• Capacity to produce up to 100 satellites per year

Read more: https://t.co/GqKYQH4Yrl