"If the Fed hikes, they're going to lose the long end. If the Fed cuts, they're going to lose the long end."
Here's what @LukeGromen thinks they should do 👇
@LeeSaunders72@Steven_Swinford LOL at taxing the rich and getting them to leave. Once they leave they will spend their money elsewhere and not return anything. You need to make them stay and encourage them to spend and invest the money in the country.
@KurdistanWatch Abandoning the Kurds in Iraq again leaving them at the complete mercy of an ever hostile Iraqi administration. And they want the Iranian Kurds to rise up and help topple the Iranian leadership ha. The Kurds would be complete idiots to allow themselves to be used again.
US TRADE DEFICIT SURGES PAST FORECASTS
The US goods-trade deficit widened 17.2% to $118.8B in July, far above the $100.5B forecast and the largest since March 2025.
Imports jumped 3.7%, driven by the biggest surge in capital-goods shipments since 1993, including computers and semiconductors.
Exports fell 2.9%, potentially increasing the drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth.
Troll level - Expert.
I’m not sure I’ll be able to handle the next round of our media’s heads exploding with anger over this one.
I so hope Doug Ford doesn’t bite on this one & keeps what’s left of his composure.
ok i think i get it
The Ratio ($xmultiple): Indicates how many dollars of net value the project generates for every single dollar spent to build it:
$2x: Lower capital efficiency — for every $1 spent building the mine, it generates $2 in NPV. These projects are more vulnerable to inflation and construction cost overruns.
$7x to $20x: Exceptional capital efficiency — the project yields a massive return relative to its initial construction price tag
How come West Red Lake is almost at 20x though - it seems an expensive underground mine to build/maintain with relatively high AISC?
@Riccardino999 I'm seeing some contrarian traders/value hunters piling in. How wise is that? And is buying the bonds a safer way to play it - unfortunately that requires a lot of risk capital though.
🇮🇷Iran equities surge for second day; up to 90% of stocks rose intraday
Tindex (Iran Economic Index Reference) reported the Tehran Stock Exchange composite index jumped 155,000 points to breach 6,385,000, with as many as 90% of stocks advancing and over 80% up 2–3%.
(https://t.co/8hMVZR8qo9)
NETANYAHU RULES OUT IRAN DEAL
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he sees no possibility of a diplomatic agreement with Iran, following talks with President Trump.
His comments come as Trump increases economic pressure on Tehran.
Tensions remain high over Lebanon, with Iran accusing Israel of violating ceasefire terms, while Israel says its operations are responses to violations by Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Call it fraud, market manipulation, or state-sponsored intervention—the tape doesn't lie. Bessent has, at least up to this point, engineered a masterclass in suppressing crude.
Despite this, the crowd's mockery of him following this buyback is immense. Even the oil bulls who were slaughtered by him are laughing at him.
I've watched the regime evolve in real time. Powell's "Don't fight the Fed" morphed into Yellen's "Don't fight the Treasury," which turned into Trump's "Don't fight the administration."
And yet the herd is still fading Bessent like he’s a clown. He might look sloppy, step on a few rakes or face karma down the road, but yield suppression is his mandate zero. He is not rolling over quietly.
Tracked the bond flows from @AlexanderKim120 recently—literally the only Korean whose tape reading I respect—and just digested today's note from meme lord @agnostoxxx . Realized it was time to kill my bond bias and pivot.
Druckenmiller’s WSJ op-ed was legendary as always, but state intervention in the curve isn't exactly breaking news. Honestly it read more like a textbook local top for yields.
TL;DR: Shorting/mocking long duration has become the ultimate consensus crowded trade. Classic setup for a ruthless wash, rinse, repeat cycle.
So as noted earlier, while trimming risk and banking gains across BTC and PMs, I stepped in and started building a long Treasury book during today's NY tape.
Good luck out there.