SquareInvest 🇺🇦

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Rory_Johnston https://t.co/gZ8UBVbNit

[Shin @hey_itsmyturn]

When "At request of Pakistan"?

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@mdburnell Thanks. Can't tell the direction of travel though of the +/- 5 larger vessels to the north west of these 4 fast moving vessels. Surface conditions seem critical indeed.

And how do we know for sure when it's a VLCC? Container vessels / LNG carriers have similar dimensions.

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@mdburnell Makes me wonder whether you could determine the direction of travel using the SAR imagery, i.e. outbound or inbound

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@mdburnell Could perhaps be these ships? One of them certainly has the length of a VLCC (using the measuring tool in Copernicus)

https://t.co/iQLclNGLZf

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

According to Fars News, Iranian vessels are now crossing what had effectively become the U.S. naval blockade zone without interference.

- An Iranian VLCC, a cargo vessel carrying livestock feed, and another fully loaded oil tanker have all reportedly transited the area successfully.

- If confirmed, Tehran will present this not simply as a maritime development, but as evidence that freedom of navigation has been restored on Iranian terms.

#Iran

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Menckenist @investinguab @CRUDEOIL231 I have not seen any evidence of that either.

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Menckenist @investinguab @CRUDEOIL231 Now I understand, you were talking about incoming empty VLCCs after a "reopening". And yes of course, 120 ships sounds like a lot, but it's all kinds of ships. Just as I said, they're Persians, not some Taliban or something. They're sufficient in word games, like the Soviets.

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Menckenist @investinguab @CRUDEOIL231 Also remember that they were already master negotiators (much like the Soviet Union), but now equipped with immense leverage. Perhaps you could say they're the new OPEC, but even more powerful?

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Menckenist @investinguab @CRUDEOIL231 I think the point is that exiting VLCCs won't change anything about the ~13M B/day shut-in

The main problem however with a "reopening" under their authority would be that Iran can control the flow rate under the guise of bureaucracy / paperwork. That's huge leverage.

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Menckenist @investinguab @CRUDEOIL231 FYI
https://t.co/ZKNNA77ojc

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

When people mention the 2 VLCCs (~4 MMbbl) that recently exited Hormuz, they treat it as an offset to the ongoing supply deficit

Important to remember that Hormuz exits—at this stage—are just another stock draw

Need new empty tankers in to begin restarting shuttered production

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@BoscherMTG @Rory_Johnston Also; agreeing to "reopen" and allowing ships to pass at pre-war levels means nothing. I'm sure they'll happily let all kinds of ships pass in order to get to pre-war levels, except of course large crude carriers

ships ≠ large crude carriers

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@BoscherMTG @Rory_Johnston Why on earth would IRGC give up their single most important leverage, right at a time when crude inventory draws are accelerating? I mean, wasn’t this the whole point of their strategy so far? Why else would they have kept it closed for almost 3 months?

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Rory_Johnston So back to square 1, like every other weekend.

They know Trump is desperate. All IRGC has to do is play along and keep stalling. Each additional day will increase their leverage, until at some point in time they can get everything they'll ask for, including reparations.

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Rory_Johnston Why on earth would Iranian hardliners (i.e. IRGC) give up all their leverage, right at a time when crude inventories draws are accelerating? I mean, wasn’t this the whole point of their strategy so far?

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@mark_dow Isn't that bill meaningless? If he wants to de facto withdraw from NATO it only requires him saying that he won't honour article 5.

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@WarMonitor3 @grok source

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@WarMonitor3 @grok source

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@grok @Youwillownzero @JavierBlas @grok link to article

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@Youwillownzero @JavierBlas @grok source

[SquareInvest 🇺🇦 @SquareInvest]

@acd_4 @manniefabian Makes sense 👍