srwtx

I don't see the world like most people do.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

The more I've learned about the Market, the more I've come to see successful trading as an expression of Wu Wei (ask your favorite LLM).

It requires effort, but only in learning the flow of the market. That effort is pure curiosity. It is a constant, near voracious appetite to understand the forces and currents that flow through the market movements.

Once you adopt that posture to the market, individual trades become probes - not profit seeking, but tests to see what happens (and scaled appropriately small).

Once you begin to "feel" the movement of the markets in ways you can explain, you no longer try to predict in the near-term where it will go next. You place positions to capitalize on movements either way.

Your positions flow with the market and skim the energy of its movement.

This way, you don't care about hitting the top or the bottom. You position in the lulls and harvest in the swells. Market flushes become discount opportunities.

Nothing in the market should "offend" you. Everything the market does should fascinate you, especially when you're wrong. You want to "feel" its flow and flow with it, not "beat" it.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

@chicfryrice @ThoughtCrimes80 It took me some time to understand...
You're not lonely if you have you.
But you can't find yourself until you are alone.

Everything we think we need from others is actually what we need from ourselves.

Until then, how can we honestly give what we do not possess?

[srwtx @srwtx3]

@unusual_whales That would require employment, right?
...or is it about discount labor?

Maybe should have thought about that earlier.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

If you get to the point where your ego and holistic processes collaborate, what others call the "subconscious" becomes a sort of autopilot for success.

The ego tells it the direction, and the holistic drives the details without the ego having to reason about them.

I realize that sounds counterintuitive. We associate the ego with details, but most of the time it's just spitting out what the holistic provides and telling stories about it afterwards.

Artists will understand that easier than most. It's guilding that creativity that produces stuff you could plan.

Turns out it doesn't just work with art :D

[srwtx @srwtx3]

@RileyRalmuto Your ego and your holistic (aka "subconscious") CAN be friends, btw.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

You can be great and unnoticed.

You can be incompetent, unsuccessful, and a serial failure, and still be noticed, and all those things apply.

But in our current age, if you are the second, and loud enough, long enough, you can still be supported by the masses of people who ignore all your failings.

I like being unnoticed.
Not that I'm great.

I'll plant seeds and be happy seeing others claim the trees.

I don't need a lot.
Just a little more than enough.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

I strive to be the world I want to see.

I help others because I remember how it feels to be helped. I remember how those times changed me.

I've moved a lot in my life. I stopped counting at 37 times. I became very good at adapting the shape of my new environments.

Eventually, I learned that we can create our own shape, and in so doing, slowly shape the environment around us.

My responsibility to the world is to be the type of person I want the world to be, believe it can be, and show that you can be successful and happy without succumbing to the narrative of greed and transactionalism.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

@Geist_JW @ThrillaRilla369 Mellencamp -
" I fight authority; authority always wins. "

It's a very (subtly) different approach to discipline.

Hard to describe, but antithetical to conformity.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

Think of it this way:

If you trade a stock or a short-dated option, you have to be right within a specific time frame.

If you're wrong within that time frame, your stop loss triggers, and you lose money, or your option dies of theta loss, and you lose the capital invested. Either way, execution is more critical, and even perfect execution does not save you from unforeseen market dynamics.

If you trade a LEAP (Long dated option), you can be wrong in the near term, and still break even or profit in the long term.

Because your risk is fixed, you don't need a stop loss to prevent excessive exposure. You can wait until the market shifts.

If you buy a stock for $40 per share, your stop loss is the only thing creating (a potential but not guaranteed) risk cap. The price could gap down overnight, or blow through your SL so fast your stop loss is violated deeply.

If you buy a LEAP Call, your risk is in your premium and nothing more. It's direct capital efficiency with fixed risk.

Because risk is fixed, you can hold through any amount of unrealized drawdown. As long as you are comfortable with the cost of the position, you can hold.

If you scale in (put only a quarter of your intended position size into the first trade), then the price moving against you is actually a discount opportunity. You scale in more, dropping your basis.

I have held positions with unrealized %G/Ls of negative 75% and seen those same positions reverse to >6x. You just can't so that with stocks.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

I agree.

When risk management becomes a mindset filter, you look for completely different things in the market.

Yes, this trade might have potential, but how does it compare in convexity to other opportunities?

I have no use for 1:3 in stocks anymore. The 1:3 in stocks looks like a lie to me. If my stops are consistently activated, that's a participation tax on every trade.

The right LEAPs can 5 or 10x with fixed risk on direct capital engagement rather than large capital deployment with an insurance tax.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

@tclaugus2 Creation is multiplied by the new creation of every life.

In every life, in every mind, a new reality.

We create through the meaning we find.

What could be a higher purpose?

[srwtx @srwtx3]

There is nothing incongruent between Dallio's statements and actions.

In any systemic change, there are winners and losers.

He's positioned with the most likely winners.

Instead of noting what you might consider incongruent and declaring it false. Perhaps note the man's success and ask, "What am I missing here?".

The real barriers between success and failure are often not in the environment, but in our minds.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

Truth.
And true of everything else in life as well.

True liberty starts here.

Yes, others may have done it.
You have the capacity to determine how it affects you.

Responsibility is not just about who did what.

Response- Ability is about how you can respond.

If you blame others for your situation and leave it there, by action, you are a victim.

If you see the situation for what it is and determine how you will sustain or profit regardless of, or because of it, you are self-determined.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

Gen X?
Same here.

What did you do when your parents weren't looking...Which I expect, if like me, was most of the time?

Yes, there were hard lines and repercussions.

But they were few, and less than 20% of my daily experience.

When I reflect with my friends from my youth, the general sentiment? "It's amazing we survived."

[srwtx @srwtx3]

"undisciplined" stands out for me in that sentence.

Discipline can be learned and can be enforced.

Discipline can mean focus and execution, or it can mean punishment for stepping outside the lines.

Ask an X Gen about growing up with discipline.

The broken and well-trained are very polite until you turn your back. The conformant gets the job done, enough to avoid the fallout.

The human who finds the reasons and the self-understanding to fix their own commitment and stay the course has far more capacity than the conformant, and quite often, far more respect for all humans and sympathy for the ones still seeking a reason.

The human bred in rules has a head start, but fewer options. The human who discovers the value of focus forges their own and is not constrained.

The latter is the harder path, but with richer rewards. That is, if you value the individual life.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

The same could be said of software 20 years ago.

It's valid, but so too are the tech lords that rose from that era.

The difference, IMO, is perceived dependence on some "perfect plan" training program. We didn't have those for SE 20 years ago, to my recollection.

But then Gates was still a "nerd", and nerd back then was a slur, not a financial status achievement.

I don't know the percentages of the people who leave the pack, making it to higher ground. I'm sure the odds aren't favorable, but they never have been, and yet rewards are worth the risk if you succeed.

I guess if I have a position here, it's this:

If you're going to break with the pack, break completely. Believe the dream, commit to the work, but don't buy the shortcuts from snake-oil salesmen. If you do, you're just a different kind of herd animal.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

I'm hungry, and I enjoy their food.

Honestly, I don't think about "eating alone" being demonstrative of anything.

I go to restaurants with others to meet and talk.

I go to restaurants by myself because I want THAT food.

Some people don't actually think about, let alone care about, "appearances".

[srwtx @srwtx3]

That orange line is just one possible thesis, NOT a prediction.
What should be noted here are the long grinds at the bottom.
These produce IV compression, reducing LEAP pricing.

Something to note about a growth stock. As they transition from Maybe, to possibly, to probably, to definitely, the IV rebases higher.

Back in June / July last year, you could buy Jan '26 35C for .44. That was 175% the current stock price.

Today 80Cs will cost ~9x that, but only that cheap because the price has grinded lower. Last week, those same LEAPs would cost 10 or 11x.

The phase transition of the character of INTC is happening. The convexity is fading.

Everything I heard in the ER call from INTC said the greatest challenges were in Q1 this year. To me, that means a beat on the next ER will likely have positive forward guidance.

If so, the stock changes character.

That makes the period leading up to the PR the last chance to position and harvest max convexity positions. No one actually controls the spot, even the instis are negotiating market sentiment, but my Jan 27 Calls just started showing me discounts.

The longer it churns here, the more opportunity to scale.

That doesn't mean they will. But 44.60 looks appealing.

Again, I don't load there. I buy discounts gently because it could go lower. That red channel bottom is still looming and if the market sentiment stays suppressed, as the Q suggests may be feasible, it could happen.

I have a substantial (for me) position in INTC. Long and bullish. But I'm NOT betting on a reverse right now...not yet.

[srwtx @srwtx3]

@investingluc Thank you.