Haven't been adding much here lately - life changes, move, job transition, etc. But I'm hoping to be more active for this next leg in metals and minors.
I found the metals fintwit community 18 months ago and want to share a brief guide for other newbies. 🧵
1/
Trump will have:
* Torn up Obama’s deal
* Spent billions
* Depleted US critical supplies
* Cost tens of billions in US Gulf infrastructure damage
* Lost American lives
All to get:
* A worse deal than the one he tore up
And MAGA will screech and shout “TDS” if you question it.
According to Al Jazeera, the Iran deals includes unfreezing billions in Iranian funds, lifting U.S. blockade, pulling U.S. forces away, reopening strait of Hormuz though with tolls to Iran, and allowing Iran to keep its enriched uranium. This would be a total U.S. surrender.
I think the past few months have just been the most blatant, desperate, and even criminally illegal effort in human history to deflect reality
Sending opposite signals to the market doesn't work long-term
It just sets you up for a much harder and longer crash out
I figured out why oil is trading the way it is -- It's simple: normal people think the issue here is the word "war". They think that if a peace deal is signed, all the infrastructure is instantly.repaired, and the lost barrels immediately flow "from the taps".
The BBC says it has found a 'consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes' in financial markets before a 'social media post or media interview' by President Trump.
$SCZM $SCZ.v Santacruz silver should be sitting on ~120-130 million in cash after Q1 2026!! Approx 15%market cap in cash.. by year end should be approx ~250MM or 30% current Mkt cap in cash.... insanity. #silver $silj
I feel like the IRGC just agrees to everything after a few days of saying "we're making progress", then says they agreed to nothing after the headlines come out, just to buy more time until an oil crises makes the S&P500 trade 50% lower
Still insane to me that within 48 hours silver traded from $121 to $74
then a few weeks later within 48 hours oil traded between $119 and $76
Commodity moves in 2026 are a completely different animal