Stabilized Yet?

Thoughts on real estate and adjacent obsessions. "I see a thing as it is. I do not deceive myself by going off into vagaries about it." - Hetty Green

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

I continue to be perplexed by reports that AI isn’t driving meaningful productivity gains. Everyone I work with professionally is dramatically more productive because of it.

Clearly, I’m in a bubble.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

89% of leaders say AI has not improved their company's labor productivity, despite widespread adoption, per Gallup.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

Quietly best-performing asset class this quarter: manufactured housing.

$ELS reported base rents +5.7% YoY at 94% occupancy. $SUI raised 2026 core FFO guidance after a strong Q1. Large entry barriers (zoning, NIMBYism).

The SFR / BTR institutional playbook is coming to MH.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

$RLJ Q1: RevPAR $149, up 4.8%. Business transient room nights up 9%. Management explicitly attributed it to "AI-related spending and record corporate profits."

The AI corridor cities (SF, NYC, Austin, Seattle) are capitalizing on the corporate travel tailwind, while others lag.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

COPA was so clearly a massive net negative for SF multifamily and exacerbated the problem it was intended to fix.

[Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @NYCMayor]

For years, New Yorkers have been priced out of their own neighborhoods as outside investors have profited.

With @CMSandyNurse's COPA legislation, when many apartment buildings go up for sale, tenants and nonprofits would have a chance to buy the building before investors.

I'm proud to support COPA, grateful for Councilmember Nurse's partnership, and looking forward working with City Council to pass this important bill.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

Wild stat.

Alexandria ($ARE), the largest life sciences landlord in the country with a ~40M SF portfolio, signed ZERO public biotech leases in Q1.

CEO openly criticized federal science funding on the earnings call.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@sweatystartup Going to trade school over college effectively raises the floor and lowers the ceiling from an employment perspective.

Not necessarily the wrong choice, but hard for any parent to cap their child’s potential upside.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@EllliotttB @seandsweeney Do banks not require contingent liability disclosures?

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

3) GDP growth will continue to decouple from job growth as this dynamic expands

4) In 5-10 years, companies are forced to pay up for the shrinking group of mid/upper level candidates

5) Companies realize this isn’t sustainable and begin investing in select junior roles again

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

Prediction: The Great Talent Gap

1) GenAI will soon be able outperform junior level employees at a majority of tasks

2) Public companies will begin to cut junior roles as they are primarily incentivized to cut costs to boost short term earnings

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@fortworthchris @bobbyfijan Can’t speak directly for other cities, but NYC has such strong / unique demand drivers for post grads that it’s less dependent on local replacement demographics.

NYC has an affordability problem which has recently pushed families to the burbs, but not a demand problem.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@moseskagan

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

Still asking myself why I don’t drop everything and become a South Florida condo developer.

Pre-sale deposits can be used to fund construction in lieu of equity which allows a GP to put up minimal capital while controlling all of upside.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

There’s a lot of potential value in having a detailed understanding of local / regional bank capital treatment requirements.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@moseskagan Ah. Pretty tough. YoC figures for new dev still seem quite tight but supply demand dynamics for high quality space still seem healthy despite the over arching narrative. We shall see. Not touching it.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

This is well done - informative / good production quality / conversational.

@thecredaily

https://t.co/LHsRd6O7mW

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

“Only fascists should make cities. Democrats never have a salient thesis” - Red Rising Series

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@rhunterh

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@chernobelskiy To be fair, I assume he/she would have taken some serious tax risk by pulling out the deal at the last second given timing restrictions on 1031’s. Probably was in a tough spot.

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@iononrecourse REIT exec is a fantastic gig - primarily because comp is typically tied to hurdles that are under management’s control (I.e. not performance).

[Stabilized Yet? @StabilizedYet]

@moseskagan You’re telling me that’s not Beck Bennett?