Prediction market traders are biased bullish on $BTC through the end of the year with 52% odds for BTC to rise to $90k vs 36% odds that it falls to $70k.
Bitcoin has fallen back down to test $81k as support once again, but crypto sentiment remains neutral.
I guess nobody is worried about a potential move lower?
After seeing >$1B of inflows to start the week, US $BTC ETFs just saw huge outflows of -$635.6M on Thursday.
This was the largest single day of outflows since June 25th, and comes as the US spot BTC ETF cost basis of ~$81k is being tested as support.
Bitcoin is set to close below its 50 day moving average for the first time since mid-August.
Of the 4 other times $BTC fell below its 50D MA this year, 3 were followed by a small bounce and then a large drop of of -10% to -35%.
However, the most recent time BTC lost the 50D MA, it was able to quickly reclaim it and then saw a major new uptrend form.
The 30-year US treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 23rd.
This is interesting because inflation appears to be heating back up, but the concerns about a slowdown in growth have become significant enough to outweigh those inflation concerns.
Brent crude oil prices are consolidating right below their high of the year as we have seen mixed reports throughout the week as to the possibility of renewed conflict in the Middle East.
As long as oil prices remain elevated, global energy inflation will continue to rise.
Meta and Tesla will both report earnings after the US session closes in around 45 minutes.
$META recently bounced from a key support while $TSLA is testing a key resistance.
This area of short liquidations from $84k-$86k has started to be hit today.
A short squeeze like this can help $BTC push higher, but ideally we will also see some more spot demand entering as well to make the move more sustainable.
$SPCX is up more than +8% after hours following a very strong earnings report and a statement from Elon that he thinks it would be "a good idea" to merge SpaceX and Tesla.
SpaceX will report earnings after the US session today.
$SPCX recently pulled back -20% after trending up +68% from August into early October.
Today's earnings report could determine whether the next move is a deeper correction or a push back towards the local high.
Unless we see a major surprise from the Fed next week, all eyes will be on Warsh looking for hints as to what the Fed will do at the December FOMC meeting.