Ok now I’m getting on my soapbox and let’s call this what it actually is:
OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX and the broader unicorn ecosystem spent YEARS building quasi-public markets because it benefited them enormously:
-inflated valuations
-employee liquidity
-insider cash-outs
-perpetual fundraising
-hype cycles
-media signaling
-and public-market style price discovery WITHOUT public-market disclosure obligations
The entire game was engineered around dancing on the edge of Section 12(g) of the Exchange Act.
SPVs
Nominee holders
Forward contracts
Synthetic exposure
Transfer restrictions
Feeder vehicles
“Access” products
All designed to get the benefits of being public while avoiding the responsibilities of being public.
And now, after years of insiders getting rich off this gray-market ecosystem, suddenly they want to control who gets access, who gets liquidity, who can transfer, who gets information, and who gets to participate.
Sorry. That’s bullshit.
You created the monster. You fed the monster. You pumped valuations using the monster. You allowed insiders and connected funds to monetize the monster.
Now outsiders finally show up and suddenly everyone wants to pretend private markets are some sacred country club?
No. The entire structure was intentionally designed to avoid the spirit of Section 12(g) while still harvesting public-market dynamics.
And this is EXACTLY why Congress created 12(g) in the first place — because companies were effectively becoming public without disclosure, transparency, or equal treatment of market participants.
We already saw this movie with Facebook, SharesPost, SecondMarket, and the pre-IPO secondary boom. The SEC literally warned about this exact trajectory over a decade ago.
You cannot spend 10 years manufacturing quasi-public liquidity and then suddenly scream “private company!” once the market becomes inconvenient for insiders.
Is anyone paying attention to AI MUSIC ?
Suno just hit $300M ARR with 2M PAID users.
they’re generating 7 MILLION songs per day.
that’s Spotify’s entire catalog
every 2 weeks 😭
Not many predictions, just a reiteration of a few core ideas:
> Stop trying to look into a crystal ball. Be present and understand what’s happening now. If you understand the present, you can see the future
> Markets are not cheap and there’s a lot of hype. Everyone’s high on techno optimism and confusing skepticism with pessimism. When things are priced to perfection it leads to disappointment (and capital destruction)
> You can’t escape mean reversion
> Crypto is in its adoption phase. 2025 was about legitimacy; 2026 is about exponential adoption - but not exponential prices
> Prices will lag adoption. The Nasdaq fell ~80% from its peak and took 15 years to recover, while internet users grew ~7x over the same period
> Crypto prices eventually recover once we have ~10x more active users (at least 500 million)
> We’re facing an affordability and loneliness crisis. Understand that, and clear themes and investable areas emerge
> Capital preservation is key. Wait for the fat pitch. It usually comes with forced sellers. That’s not today. People feel the pinch, but markets have delivered a phenomenal decade
> You don’t have to bet. You shouldn’t play every hand you’re dealt.
> Go deep on supply and demand dynamics. It’s surprising how few people can explain businesses through this lens. In crypto, we have an oversupply of blockspace and insufficient demand. Prices won’t break new all time highs until that happens
> Competition is for losers. Avoid highly competitive industries. Focus on niche areas, find PMF, and dominate. First-mover advantages are overrated. Read Zero to One
> “Commodity” products can still earn a premium. Anyone who disagrees hasn’t walked through a supermarket: it’s Tide, not detergent; Kleenex, not tissue
May 2026 be a great year for you all!
In the @10SQFund September research note, we explore the connection between the Attention Economy and Web3. As adoption increases, this rapidly advancing market is poised to become a major driver of Web3’s growth, much like how blockchain has been transforming global finance.
https://t.co/Iz2qFyGZDy
THE TELEGRAM NETWORK STATE?
The Telegram TON IPO could be important.
Mainly because they get the importance.
But first...ok, yes, what got announced it isn’t technically a Telegram offering, nor is TON formally issued by Telegram, nor is it really even an IPO. To be precise, what just launched is a crypto treasury company called VERB that holds $500M+ of TON, which is a coin issued by a foundation that was once formally affiliated with Telegram and then became independent but is now affiliated again.
Got all that? But these are really just implementation details. The offering could be important[1] simply because (a) Telegram has a billion users, and (b) TON is now the official coin of those billion users, and (c) Telegram can now officially partner with TON because (d) crypto is now fully legal.
So, the potential is clear. Though it was a long and arduous struggle between network and state to get here. Let's review.
(1) First, Telegram fought the law and the law…did not win. Briefly, Telegram created TON back in 2018, but an SEC injunction made them turn TON into an independent foundation. However, after the recent democratically-mandated defenestration of Gary Gensler, we saw the regulatory state capitulate and TON reintegrate with Telegram.
(2) Next, the French state fought Pavel Durov and that state…did not yet win. Briefly, some French prosecutor came up with a fake case against Durov and grabbed him off a plane. This destroyed @emmanuelmacron’s ambitions to make France “startup friendly”, because investors just avoid France now after Durov's illegitimate prosecution.
(3) The UAE has intervened on Durov’s behalf, and he’s now reportedly been let out of house arrest to return to Dubai. If justice still exists, then Durov should beat his case, just as Trump beat his own political prosecutions. In part that's because the case is predicated on the ridiculous idea that Durov is personally responsible for every message sent by the 1B+ users on his platform. That’s like holding Macron personally responsible for every crime committed by 67M Frenchmen. It’s just an unrealistic demand for a zero-crime digital environment, by a French state that can’t itself control crime at all.
(4) Anyway, the real reason the French state is going after Durov is the same reason the Blue American state went after Elon and the Chinese state went after Jack Ma. It's because men like Durov are genuine leaders, and their growing strength scares bureaucratic incumbents.
Because if there was a technodemocratic[2] plebiscite held, the billion users of Telegram could produce more votes (and hence more democratic legitimacy) for the popular Durov than the 67M French would for the unpopular Macron. The enormous popularity of the heads-of-network means they could become not just more competent but more legitimate than heads-of-state. This is one part of what the bureaucrats (instinctively, inarticulately) fear.
(5) The other part is that that a fusion of a messaging app and a cryptocurrency allows something even bigger than a social network to emerge. With communication + AI moderation + crypto transactions, you have something more like a digital economy, one that bureaucrats can't control. Which is the other thing bureaucrats fear.
(6) Of course, all that is predicated on actually getting a Telegram coin launched, and making it tradeable, and allowing it to formally integrate with the app. And all that was fought by various states for the better part of a decade, and now all that resistance is finally melting away, seven years after the whole TON thing began.
Anyway, so that's why this is interesting to me. Founders like Durov built networks the size of countries, and finally have currencies to match. And as you can see from the video below (from the President of TON Foundation) and the tweet below (from the founder of Telegram), both Telegram and TON are well aware of the potential. They see the beginnings of a cloud country...a network state, if you will.
They see the importance.
Not sure many people understand the outcome from TON treasury company going to NASDAQ
small example: @saylor casually talks on FOX about innovation in crypto: TON, Telegram and fast transactions for billion users
i think all of you are wrong about pumpfun btw
(going to go back to max shilling bitcoin after this post but this needs to be said)
there are very few teams and founders in crypto that actually build anything that has any impact. it’s actually really hard and not easy at all
you guys can hate as hard as you want, oh but there are so many bundled scams, oh but alon isn’t good with interviewing live in front of 40,000 people that hate him, oh but they’re extractooooors, oh but other launchpads have revshare, bla bla bla give me a break
if you zoom out, this is a once-in-a-lifetime team that changed the landscape of crypto completely. the greatest testimony to how big their impact was is that you den of degenerates can’t even remember what things were like before
let me tell you, they were way worse, with all attention going to serial ruggers like ben.eth and later the presale meta, that basically only gave any shot at all to huge influencers (and then they rugged you), pumpfun team noticed the trend, saw it had potential, and restructured the entire game
yes it’s still a casino, yes almost everyone lost money, but it was a more fair casino than before and way more scalable and people had way more fun. also onboarded way more people
noticing that something has potential but is currently broken, and then actually finding a way to make it 100x better, and then figuring out how to get people to actually adopt it, and then turning it into the meta of the cycle, is not easy, and almost no team in crypto pulled that off, ever, period
so ok, maybe the game has changed. maybe they’ll need to reinvent themselves completely (maybe not wtf do i know), maybe people are sick of memecoins (ugh finally), whatever, the point is that this is one of the handful of teams that proved themselves in this space, i think that $2.5B is quite simply a reasonable valuation for a team of that caliber as long as you can hold and wait and actually want to support (if you’re trying to flip this in 3 hours then i have no fucking idea what to tell you)
that’s it, believe it or not i’m hyper-focused on bitcoin and on taproot wizards so i’m not actually long pumpfun (don’t want to get distracted and check the price every day like the rest of you degenerates) but i just think you guys are giving them way too much shit
Introducing Texture 2.0 Beta - now live on Solana 🧩
A new layer of capital efficiency on Solana with customizable lending markets and dynamic risk tools.
Blockchain adoption rapidly expands beyond the financial sector. Today, some of the most promising and actively developed applications include supply chain management, digital identity, IoT device security, asset tokenization, entertainment, and the creation of decentralized physical networks. In our latest research note, we showcase notable use cases, recent developments, and live projects demonstrating blockchain’s transformative impact across these sectors. @10SQFund
https://t.co/TAKd4F8a6V
#blockchain #BlockchainInnovation #Web3
The @SECGov has agreed in principle to dismiss its lawsuit against @krakenfx with prejudice—no admission of wrongdoing, no penalties, no changes to our business.
The case is over. Fairness and justice won. We can now continue to focus on innovation and growth.
This is a huge moment for crypto, the U.S., and the world. A case that should never have existed in the first place is finally behind us. The SEC’s lawsuit, which mischaracterized our business from day one, was always without merit. This dismissal confirms what we’ve said all along: regulation should be based on facts, not politics.
It’s hard to overstate the cost of all this. Years lost, millions spent, and untold stress for the team—@msantoriesq, @JonathanJachym, @JDMikeJ and so many others who fought through sleepless nights and long odds. Our founders, @Jespow and Thanh, never backed down. Winning wasn’t inevitable. But giving up was never an option.
And this isn’t just a win for Kraken.
It’s a win for our clients, the industry, and everyone building the future of financial freedom.
It’s a win for the startups that couldn’t afford to fight, the developers who kept building, and the voters who made their voices heard.
The results of this past election made something clear: Americans want crypto and blockchain to thrive.
They want alternatives to the broken legacy financial system. They want new opportunities, and they’re tired of being held back.
One of the great things about building in the United States is that we can recalibrate and get better.
It’s why my parents came here.
It’s why I remain long on the U.S. for innovation and growth.
But this fight isn’t over. This is just a step. Now, we need clear, bipartisan laws that ensure crypto can flourish here. We need to make sure this never happens again.
https://t.co/mD2pzVF78S
We are thankful for our amazing partners & investors. Grateful for all the support and good vibes 🙏 Let's keep growing together! 🍁
Sharing @10SQFund November TEN-Point Newsletter. Featured this month:
- Overview of the post-election crypto rally;
- The roadmap of regulatory changes in the year ahead;
- Stablecoins go mainstream with @stripe 's acquisition of @Stablecoin;
- This month's major news: launch of options on crypto ETFs, more institutional crypto adoption in Asia with Singapore's @dbsbank and Hong Kong telecom provider HKT, @coincheckjp De-SPAC as the first Japanese crypto exchange on Nasdaq, significant product announcements from @worldcoin.
https://t.co/WPQi78et7B
today the @helium network has ~230k daily active users, and is transferring almost 14 terabytes of day of traffic for multiple US cellphone carriers
you may have even used Helium without realizing it today, as your phone automatically joins the network when in range
onwards 🚀
Prediction markets are getting a considerable distribution boost with Robinhood's new product. Buying Bitstamp was one of the best and most strategic decisions they’ve ever made.
1/ we are about to see an explosion of software and services focused on the world of physical infrastructure, especially data centers
at @CrucibleVC we're investing in the software and services layer that will make the built world smarter, more efficient, and more profitable
This is by far the most positive thing we've ever heard from Rep. Waters on crypto, who's likely to be Chair of Financial Services again if Dems retake the House.
Dems can't stay anti-crypto with leadership talking like this. Never underestimate how fast things can change in DC.
Those were the two most widely read long-form posts I’ve ever written. I still get tagged about them on Twitter. I was at a crypto conference last week and at least a half dozen folks brought those pieces up to me in person. So they really resonated.
This Pervasive Quiet Quitting trend is an extension of the views of those posts, which so accurately captured (and predicted) the current state of the crypto landscape.
Sharing TenSquared's July - August TEN-Point Newsletter:
https://t.co/K1nPrNwn04
Featured this month:
- @telegram continues building its Web3 ecosystem;
- @Polymarket's product-market fit in the Election year;
- The California DMV goes digital;
- @10SQFund takeaways from Web3 InvestorDay 2024 in Chicago, organized by @decasonic;
- Other industry news and major updates.
We are happy to invite the following community members to join the Argonauts program at this time.
@0xDulDul
@DeFiVoyager_X
@pixelis0x
@TradeWithThanos@TheMartin_Ko
KimCapital
Please get in touch with us via DM to get set up!