StankBets

JENOVA Shall Lead Me To The Promised Land

in search of black materia to perfect my model

[StankBets @StankBets]

* Note that I just put an arbitrary starting $25K, these are not my profit actual numbers, just for visualization, and I don't like just showing units.

It's been a wild first week after the launch of JENOVA RESURRECTED. It will inevitably trend down, last few days have been way too crazy.

[StankBets @StankBets]

@DShyKnock KEKW, you have to admire this guy's attitude. Fuck I wish there were more people like him in the scene.

[StankBets @StankBets]

What are some resources or inspirations you guys use for predicting LoL games from draft?

I feel like formalizing LS' mtg way has given me quite a bit of insight, however, it is impossible to do so with "observational" methods.

It always ends up being a mostly expert rule system, which is super fallible to rule asymmetry. I have really tried to deep dive on expert systems, but it just seems like there are no actually good resources? Like the complexity of Drafts is so much greater, than what people have tried to use those systems for before. Moreover, the target they predict doesn't move, whereas in LoL things change all the time.

So how do you guys think about the problem at large?

[StankBets @StankBets]

FLY - DIG Map 2:

[StankBets @StankBets]

@Goldenglue Keep up the drafting!

[StankBets @StankBets]

@Biko40808319 Truly.....

[StankBets @StankBets]

DIG - FLY Map 1:
Meh.. no CC for Locke, seems like it can't be FLY favored like this.

[StankBets @StankBets]

@IHateWaffless KEKW

[StankBets @StankBets]

SEN - DSG Map 2:

[StankBets @StankBets]

SEN - DSG Map 1:

[StankBets @StankBets]

@Biko40808319 Some context here. The composite score for the ML models all agree that Shifters are ahead. But the expert rules on top drag it towards KC.

[StankBets @StankBets]

You can just tell that Daglas is completely tunnel-visioned here. The guy is just completely lost in the fight. You have a 0-3 Aatrox, with a huge deficit, YOU ARE NOT CARRYING, let your other players carry. How are you ever even looking for an engage, with Orianna still in the TP, you are 4v5. @Nukeduck @mithygg I applaud you for not jumping out a window having to work with these literal sub humans

[StankBets @StankBets]

@Biko40808319

[StankBets @StankBets]

For reference, this is his head-position in non-fights. He is visibly tensing his body, causing the forward head-movement, etc when in fights. Which also means he is no longer able to think "slowly". He is acting on pure fight or flight, and sees a champion and goes for it. Text book low IQ

[StankBets @StankBets]

GX - TH Map 2:

[StankBets @StankBets]

@IHateWaffless Watching LoL in general is brutal

[StankBets @StankBets]

HLE - T1 Map 2:

[StankBets @StankBets]

JDG - EDG Map 1:

[StankBets @StankBets]

It's actually crazy how bad pro players are at utilizing flash defensively. People hold on to it much more than they should later in the game. Earlier, it's fine to see if you can play it out, because not having flash in lane for some champions is almost as damning. But later in the game, you just have to use it the second you realize you might be mispositioned. (This is of course pointed at carries)

[StankBets @StankBets]

0-7 Ashe, congrats on not flashing, picking ghost etc. you absolute mongoloid

[StankBets @StankBets]

Welp, didn't matter TT are really just getting completely brain diffed

[StankBets @StankBets]

LGD - TT Map 2: