As stablecoin volumes accelerate, DeFinity Markets provides the execution, liquidity access, and institutional‑grade on/off‑ramping needed to support this next phase of market growth.
Building the infrastructure that lets stablecoins move with speed, transparency, and confidence.
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The start of 2026 has been brutal for crypto, but 4 indicators are now signaling that the bottom is in.
1. The Fear & Greed Index is now at 5. This has always marked the bottom
2. 5 red months in a row. This only happens once every 10 years, has always marked the bottom and was followed by 5 green months.
3. BTC/GOLD always bottomed after 14 months exactly, it already did that in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and was always followed by 2-3 years of up-only.
4. Bitcoin is sitting at the cost of production. This has always marked the bottom.
5. Bitcoin is now sitting at the ATH of the previous cycle, 23 months later. This has always marked the bottom.
Does this mean that the bottom is now guaranteed to be in? Of course not, but there probability is quite high.
Clear signal from traditional finance: when major banks publicly acknowledge the need to adopt Bitcoin and digital assets, the direction of travel is obvious.
Institutional infrastructure, execution quality and 24/7 market access will define who leads this transition.
At DeFinity Markets, we’re enabling institutions to access these markets with the transparency, execution quality and risk analytics they expect.
#InstitutionalCrypto #BTC $DEFX
A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.
This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.
So far, it’s been pretty bang on.
Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time.
No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.
As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.
In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.
Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year.
In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.
And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth.
Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.
Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.
If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...
Utterly brutal crypto markets with relentless, rapid positions unwinding and rumours swirling after 10/10 of impaired market maker balance sheets leading to less liquidity and someone blowing up.
It reminds me a lot of 2021 when in a 4 week period Bitcoin fell 56%, ETH -62% and SOL fell -68%. It then sharply reversed and exploded to new highs. That sell off was as baffling as this one.
With the macro backdrop still so positive it is hard to think that we won't see something similar here (a sharp recovery) but massive downside volatility like this is not easy for anyone and not certainly something I expected to see at this stage, but it is also not out of the normal.
Back in 2019 to 2020 we had a -72% sell off (in a bull market but the sell off was exacerbated by Covid). Back in 2016 to 2017 we had 7 sell offs of over 30% in BTC. Alts always do worse of those periods too (see chart)
The current price action is showing no signs of letting up yet even though we are massively oversold, but having lived through huge rapid de-rsking events before in many markets, this too shall pass.
My strategy is to add into these sell offs but Im ok with large swings in P&L in a long-term multi-year trend as I've explained many times, but everyone circumstances and time horizons are different.
Good luck out there, its ugly and made harder by the lack of actual negative news outside of price. Try to get away from your screens if you can and get into nature to destress.
This is it – the moment we’ve been waiting for. The SEC will drop its appeal – a resounding victory for Ripple, for crypto, every way you look at it.
The future is bright. Let's build.
@RealRandyChavez@veve_official Great summary. Even though u said this was long, it’s actually a really short read on why so many people are bullish on VeVe, I sure am!
I believe this is how @veve_official
and the $OMI token will make me a decamillionaire by the end of 2025. A long thread
In 2021 and 2022 there were countless nft projects that were able to raise a couple million dollars from VCs on the sole aspect of "we're an nft company" and they took estimates of what they'd likely sell, and the growth of the market. 98% of those have closed their door because they overextended themselves on their run rate, they didn't have a working product by the end of it, and there was no intellectual property that people could identify with. It proved that pixelated 2d pictures of animals would not be the end all be all for digital collectibles. People need something that has a history, as well as something that they trust.
The #Veve company, has the top IP in the world. From Disney, to Star Wars, to Marvel, to DC, Universal, all nostalgic brands with everyone's favorite characters.
Rhetorical question. If you were a hedge fund manager and you had the option to sell your clients on digital collectibles, what would you pick? Pixelated 2d pictures of random animals? Or high end 3d collectibles of spiderman, superman, and batman that you can take pictures with in augmented reality? That's not even a hard call.
The next thing you need to look at is the ceo. Who runs the company? Are they a ceo who's there just to think quarterly and receive bonuses in the short term? Or are they the original owner and they do it because they're passionate about what they do? Elon Musk is the owner and ceo of Tesla. No one else can do what he does the way he does because of his intelligence, experience, and intimate knowledge of electric vehicles which is disrupting internal combustion engines. David Yu has been winning entrepreneur awards since he was a teenager. He is the only teenager to ever get the Pokémon license. He has over 30 years of collecting experience, has several successful businesses in the industry, and digital collectibles are disrupting the multi billion dollar collectibles market. Hundreds of billions to be more precise. You want to know the biggest issues my clients had when I was buying and selling pokemon cards? It was their wives telling them they ran out of room. The physical collecting hobby has its limits because of space! This problem is immediately solved with this disruptive technology! There are very few people who are willing to work 60 hours a week when working for someone else. Even fewer who will do 90 to 100 hour weeks working for themselves. David is one of those people. In the same way that kids nowadays say "real recognizes real" business owners who are work horses can recognize their own. I have it, many investors have it, and I can tell you that David has it.
People don't buy what you do, they buy why you do it! David is building a dream company that I believe can be one of those rare trillion dollar companies one day.
And I know what you're thinking. "Didn't you just say the collectibles market is a multi billion dollar industry? How do you get a trillion out of that?"
You know Mark Zuckerberg obviously. Crazy, but also crazy smart. From Facebook to buying Instagram and what's app, he doesn't miss. And he's incredibly effective at remaining relevant.
He currently has a run rate of 25 billion per year he's spending on the metaverse. And if he didn't have 40k people looking for bad content on his platform so he can ban them, he'd have a run rate even higher than that. This run rate will sustain for the next few years until he ups it again. Conservatively, by 2032, he'll have spent a quarter of a trillion dollars on the metaverse. He's not doing that because the metaverse is just going to be worth half a trillion. He's doing it because it's multi TRILLION dollar opportunity. And sure, Facebook will make its money back and more. But it's already over a trillion dollar market cap. Keep this in mind.
The better ROI will be had in a company that has a lot of room to grow.
My forward guidance for 2025 has not changed since 2022 (when bitcoin was 20k, see below):
✅rise into April 2024 halving
✅halving around S2F value
✅pump after halving
✅ 100k in 2024
⬜️ 2025: hit S2F target ~500k average (range 250k-1m)
The market is “boring“ now.
You can’t expect this shit to go up forever.
That’s just not how it works.
When so many people are calling for 150k-1m, this increases hype.
It makes people too hyped.
The truth is, we want this slow and steady.
The slower it is, the stronger it is!