Steffenjakobsen

[David Frum @davidfrum]

Another way to think about Trump announcement today: If he increased US diesel imports from Canada by 4%, he would gain as much fuel as from this Russia deal. But the Canadians are global super-villains, so who wants to buy from them when you could enrich Putin instead?

[The Halfway Post @HalfwayPost]

BREAKING: Iranian officials say they will soon release the audio of several voicemails Donald Trump left them in which he begs, threatens, attempts to bribe, and finally cries for them to open up the Strait of Hormuz so gas prices will go down before Americans vote on November 3.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*UK 30-YEAR YIELD ADVANCES 12BPS TO 6.02%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until US meets all 7 conditions of the MoU they signed.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The US is in trouble... It has $100T+ in unfunded liabilities.

We've all heard that the US can pay any debt because it's owed in dollars... Well, that's not true for its unfunded liabilities.

They are owed in actual medical treatments and inflation-adjusted payments, and they're growing faster than inflation or tax receipts:

- Medicare: +8% yoy
- Social Security: +6% yoy
- Tax receipts: +4% yoy
- CPI inflation: +3.4% yoy

In other words, the US can't simply inflate these obligations away because they're currently growing ~2x as fast as inflation.

At the end of the day, the US will sacrifice the dollar and still be forced to break its Medicare and Social Security promises.

We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Inflation: Today vs 1970s

People assume inflation just spikes up, but it comes in waves. With every downward correction, people think the pain is over, just to be smacked in the face by the next inflationary surge.

Those who knew what’s coming made life-changing money, while those who failed to do so lost fortunes.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says higher US inflation will "pay off" US debt "very rapidly" in response to total US debt rising above $40 trillion.

"I know I'm the best in the world... you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this," Trump said.

US Treasury yields hit a new high of the day after the statement.

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 GOLDMAN SACHS DROPS DOOMSDAY STATEMENT: U.S. BONDS HAVE NO BUYERS

Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.”

Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell.

No buyers. None. Zero.

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.”

Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.

This was exactly warned by Japan’s @yutokanzakireal that the measures being prepared by Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people and apologized to people of the West.

Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized.

If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses.

The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

FRENCH 10Y YIELD PREMIUM SURGES TO 152BPS, HIGHEST SINCE 2011

[Barchart @Barchart]

France's Credit Default Swaps soar to highest level in 13 years 🚨 Dear God 🤯 🤯

[SilverTrade @silvertrade]

🚨TRUMP SAYS INFLATION COULD PAY DOWN THE DEBT 'VERY RAPIDLY'⚠️

👀The Fed's unofficial mouthpiece "Nikileaks" is reporting that Trump told reporters "certain levels of inflation" could pay down US debt 'very rapidly'👀

Is it any wonder that the US bond market is MELTING DOWN when major US media outlets are reporting that POTUS is stating that INFLATION COULD PAY DOWN $40.2 TRILLION IN US DEBT 'VERY RAPIDLY'⁉️

There is a word for this monetary phenomenon which is THEFT in reality:

⚡️HYPERINFLATION.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Dial 911 ☎️

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Japan 30-Year Bond Yield Rises 6bps to 4.2% Amid Global Selloff

[Lars Christensen @MaMoMVPY]

We will just rename everything...then it will be great. The Democratic Republic of America.

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 SCOTT BESSENT EFFECTIVELY CONFIRMS A BOND CRISIS, SAYS MARKET TOO ILLIQUID TO CONTROL

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on CNBC and said the quiet part out loud: He raised the size of U.S. Treasury buybacks because “we are in a very illiquid period. The market is moving quickly… I can’t set the equilibrium price.”

This is the same man who weeks earlier told traders “I am the house now. I have asymmetric information. Bet against me if you want.”

Here’s what’s actually happening.

He doubled bond buybacks, then pushed toward $6 billion, liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year bonds.

He went on to dump Euros and Dollars to save the yen so BoJ doesn’t dump their U.S. Treasury Holdings. Scott Bessent even warned the Fed to expand the FIMA facility to Japan or watch the treasury market bleed.

The 10-year has been grinding toward 5.2%+. The 30-year just printed levels last seen in 2004. Global government bond yields are near 4%, highest since 2007. Japan’s 10-year hit highs not seen since 1996. Germany’s 10-year is at 17-year peaks.

This isn’t one country. This is a synchronized long-end revolt.

Japan still holds about $1.1 trillion of U.S. Treasuries, the largest foreign holder. Those holdings have been sliding for months as Tokyo’s own debt-to-GDP sits above 220% and JGB yields explode. When the world’s biggest overseas buyer starts preferring its own higher-yielding paper (or just needs the cash), the bid for U.S. duration gets thinner.

That’s the illiquidity Bessent is now admitting he cannot paper over with a few billion in buybacks against hundreds of billions in new issuance and $40 trillion+ of existing debt.

When the official who called himself “the house” starts saying he cannot set the equilibrium price, the market is telling you something simple: we are in a bond crisis.

The most dangerous response from @yutokanzakireal: “Japan isn’t just betting against the house, it’s bringing the entire house down.”

We’re now seeing that as a global debt crisis which could catastrophically turn into a global liquidity crisis if not stopped.

That’s why gold exists. Not as a trade. As the asset that doesn’t require a Treasury Secretary to promise he can still control the price.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 5.59%, NEW HIGH SINCE 2004

[Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory]

The problem isn’t so much the level of interest rates but the speed with which they are increasing. This is what breaks stuff.

[Andrei Jikh @andreijikh]

A bank just failed (Nano Banc of Irvine, California) and the 10 Year bond yield is skyrocketing. Probably nothing.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The Fed is printing money to buy US Treasury bills... more than during Covid.

- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 9 months: ~$355B

Everyone is talking about the Fed hike... no one is talking about Warsh printing money Covid-style to buy UST bills.

At the same time, Bessent is issuing more UST bills to buy back US long-term debt.

In other words, the Treasury buyback is nothing else than QE in disguise.

We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.