Stein988

The market is constantly cycling

-Declines sow the seeds of recovery. 

-Rallies plant the seeds of correction.

[Stein988 @Stein988]

At Oaktree, one of our mottos is “we don’t look for our investments; they find us.”

Howard Marks

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Before the Iran conflict, Gulf nations were a reliable source of financing for Wall Street deals. Here’s a look at the four wealthiest countries, their funds and the key people to know. https://t.co/b4w1PNeWj2

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN PLANNED FOR A 6-8 MONTH WAR OF ATTRITION. THE U.S DIDN'T PLAN AT ALL

Political analyst Garland Nixon says time is entirely on Iran's side.

Iran's military is dug in. They don't need to fire a million missiles a day. Just keep firing, keep this going, and let the clock run.

The Iranian people are unified behind their government. The American people are losing it over gas prices.

"Americans love their trucks. Gas prices are the thing that gets them every time."

If this war is still running by November midterms, Democrats win.

@GarlandNixon

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the public deficit rose to €127bn in 2025, up from €104bn a year earlier. That is the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis. The biggest increases came at the federal and local government levels. Higher federal spending was meant in part to support the social security system. Pension insurance, for example, received a subsidy that was €6.5bn higher than in 2024. The govt also provided loans to the Federal Employment Agency (€1.4bn), the health insurance system (€2.3bn), and the long-term care insurance system (€0.5bn).

[Iran News 24 @IRanMediaco]

Iran's Fars News:

Trump is pushing hard to secure a deal with Tehran, which is why Washington’s proposal excludes Witkoff from the talks due to his close ties to Netanyahu.

5 leaders of friendly countries & 8 intelligence agencies have communicated iran to demand a ceasefire

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Today's Key Events (All EST) — 04/07/2026

08:15: US ADP Wkly Employment Change
08:30: US Durable Goods
08:55: US Redbook YoY
11:00: NY Fed 1 Yr Inflation Expectations
12:00: EIA STEO Report (Tentative)
12:35: Fed's Goolsbee Speaks
13:00: US 3-Year Note Auction
15:00: US Consumer Credit
17:50: Fed's Jefferson Speaks
20:00: Trump Iran Deadline (Tentative)

After Hours 👇
16:05: $AEHR Test Systems
16:10: $LEVI Strauss
16:05: Kura Sushi $KRUS
16:05: Skillsoft $SKIL

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BOTH SIDES WANT A DEAL. THE PROBLEM IS TRUST IS GONE

Political analyst Garland Nixon says Trump betrayed Iran twice.

"If you were Iran, would you trust him?"

Any deal now requires a third party to guarantee and enforce it. Not the UN, that's collapsed. So who?

Russia and China building a military base in Iran might sound crazy, but Garland says think outside the box because the U.S. is going to have to swallow something it would never normally accept.

And if this isn't resolved in the next month or two, the issue won't be Iran anymore.

It will be an internal uprising. In America, in Europe. Gas prices, economic pain, people in the streets.

"The ruling elite's biggest fear is always what's happening at home."

@GarlandNixon

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up.

Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged.

This time, potash fertilisers are little changed.

[Yardeni Research @yardeni]

Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 6, 2026)

In the late 1990s, Tech's market-cap share towered 15 percentage points above its earnings share. Today that spread is 1.5 points. Earnings have done the catching up. Is the bubble comparison finally losing its teeth?

[Bloomberg @business]

China’s electric-arc furnace steelmakers boosted weekly capacity utilization to the highest in more than two years, as the greener production method becomes more competitive https://t.co/VrPMdVsRgG

[Yardeni Research @yardeni]

Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 6, 2026)

PMI prices-paid indexes are flashing a warning: CPI inflation may be headed higher in the coming months. Is this rebound transitory or the start of something more persistent?

[IMF @IMFNews]

With debt high and borrowing costs rising, governments can no longer defer hard fiscal choices. Trust is now essential to reconciling competing priorities, Era Dabla‑Norris and Rodrigo Valdes write in F&D magazine. https://t.co/tY0198rky3

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Xi Jinping calls for accelerated development of new Chinese energy system amid the energy shock.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

We've signed an agreement with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity, coming online starting in 2027, to train and serve frontier Claude models.

[Stein988 @Stein988]

@unusual_whales

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Is this a warning sign of a private credit crisis, or just market panic? Blue Owl Capital, often considered a poster child for the private credit boom, closed at a record low as worries grow about the health of the $1.8tn market. The stock fell 1.4% to $8.45, slipping below its previous low from late 2022. It is now down 68% from its all-time high.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan."

Iran's 10-point plan includes:

1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
8. Iran would split these fees with Oman
9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz
10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations

President Trump's "deadline" for a peace deal with Iran is 25 hours away.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US technology employment is contracting:

The tech sector lost -43,000 jobs over the last year, the biggest YoY drop since early 2024.

This exceeds the declines seen during the 2020 pandemic and the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Technology employment has fallen for over 2 years straight now.

Since the November 2022 peak, information technology jobs have declined -330,000, to 2.79 million, the lowest since mid-2021.

This is now below pre-pandemic levels, returning to levels last seen in 2016.

Tech sector employment is dropping sharply.

[Stein988 @Stein988]

For my part I know nothing with any certainty, but the sight of the stars makes me dream.

Vincent Van Gogh

[Stein988 @Stein988]

If people sat outside and looked at the stars each night, I'll bet they'd live a lot differently.

Bill Watterson

[Stein988 @Stein988]

Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground.

Theodore Roosevelt