Stephen Joske

China macroeconomics specialist. Former Australian Treasury Beijing, EIU China and Senior Manager Asia for AustralianSuper. 15 years in China and Taiwan.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

With financial risk in China on the rise again after the post COVID stimulus, here is my article from two years ago setting out the reasons why China faces a crisis. https://t.co/pyUJNUg3j2

[Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch]

China’s share of global GDP, according to their own almost certainly inflated numbers declined to 16.7% from 18.5% in 2021.

America accounts for 26% of global GDP, up from 24% since 2021.

“Not only is there virtually no chance of China overtaking the United States as the world’s largest economy, but it is also likely that the U.S. advantage in economic strength will expand further in the next decade” 👇

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

Former CSRC vice chair and top barbarian financier handler Fang Xinghai being put under investigation is both not a surprise given the rumors that have been going around for a while but also not great for confidence towards the PRC markets of some of the big foreign financiers. https://t.co/dGuauWbxKv

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

1/5
Very good Caixin article on the struggle to manage local-government debt: "With financing squeezed, local governments are turning to a new strategy: revitalizing state-owned resources, assets and funds. Championed by Hubei and Hunan, the idea is to...
https://t.co/Qwb607wqcm

[George Magnus @georgemagnus1]

Nice write up by @toby_n__ of the Rogoff and Yang paper where authors suggest China is half to 2/3rds of the way through its property price ‘adjustment���, depending on if its following a Japan or U.S. path. I have a couple of add ons 1/3

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@SebastianBae @yamada_youkou @Mountain_Navy Is there an upgrade kit for the first edition of indo-pacific?

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

🚨 China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Watch how a $5K investment in US and China equity markets in 2011 grew by 2025.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@bigboardgaming Campaign for Guadalcanal: Long Lance and Henderson Field

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@pengkorslebor @tittydeejay Ian Fairweather, a famous artist, made a solo trip to Roti Island from Australia in 16 days on a raft in 1952.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: New home prices in 70 Chinese cities fell -3.2% YoY in February, the steepest annual drop in 8 months.

Home prices in China have now fallen in 44 of the last 47 months, the longest streak in history.

The resale market also remains weak with prices falling in tier-one, tier-two, and tier-three cities in both monthly and annual terms.

Furthermore, property investment plunged -11.1% YoY in the first two months of 2026, while sales by floor area fell -13.5%.

China's 2008 moment continues.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@antony1959 What's the book? Looks interesting !

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@hinamikayuuka What game is the third map from? The one with the sports stadium.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@Clint_Davey1 Please include the Greek Bactrian kingdom.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@Mountain_Navy @yasN2010 Here is the Chinese edition of Kinmen 1949 by Kuro Neko. I haven't seen the Bonsai original but it appears to be the same game with what-ifs of better chinese performance.

[🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼 @Jkylebass]

I’m confused. On April 16th, China announced a world-leading +5.4% GDP growth YOY in Q1. But, the headline today reads: ‘China’s PBOC unveils a comprehensive easing package to STABILIZE its economy and market expectations.’ As I’ve said before, BONDS DON’T LIE. #China #Crisis

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

Housing starts in China in March have returned to the level of March 2006, with a cumulative decline of 70% since the peak.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@browncharley23 @AusElectoralCom They have pre polling the week before. AEC doesn't stop West Australians voting after polls close in the east.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@browncharley23 @AusElectoralCom The Berlin embassy is closed on 2 May. It's just laziness.

[Stephen Joske @StephenJoske]

@agm84 Apparently Coming Wave 4 covers Australia and Indonesia and should be out by the end of this year!