Steve Teilmann

Analyst/Streamer at @TradethePool
Free trading room: + newsletter:

[Jared L Kubin @JaredKubin]

War has been over for 10 weeks. Market got it right. Can we get back to FABLE re-launch / neoclouds / memory eps power?

[Remz @Remzztrades]

6 months is enough to completely change the trajectory of your life.

A lot can happen when you give yourself six months of focused effort.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Everyone wants to make money now and learn later from the markets.

And that’s exactly why they lose now and get forced into learning today.

If you’re starting with 10k 100k or 500k- there’s few rules which you need to write down

- I will position size appropriately ( no YOLO or All in )
- I will let technical analysis dictate my next move not my emotions
- I will only touch instructions I have proper knowledge about.
- I will not average down on a downtrending stock
- I will combine Technicals & Fundamentals together
- I will stay away from Penny stocks, Value traps, Perma bears, and riding bio stocks thru catalysts
- And I will listen to the President’s buy signals

That’s it

[Trade The Pool @TradeThePool]

Every week brings a new chance to WIN!

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Six weeks packed with opportunities, competition, and rewards.
The only way to win is to join.

See you at #TWC26 🚀
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[Citrini @citrini]

A long time ago, there used to be investment theses that were not predicated upon being AI bottlenecks. At least, I think there were. Or did I imagine that? Maybe it was always like this. Maybe it’s always been an AI trade.

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

This is not “the Justice Department” creating this $1.7 billion slush fund to hand out to Trump’s criminal supporters.

It is Trump’s former criminal defense attorney Todd Blanche handing out your tax dollars to Trump’s co-conspirators and thugs.

[Citrini @citrini]

Everyone repeat after me…

“Options on a 13F are reported with notional value as if each contract was 100 shares regardless of the actual delta of the contract”

Maybe we can avoid this next quarter (we won’t).

[Deedy @deedydas]

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.

Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).

Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.

Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.

As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.

2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"

3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.

4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."

I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.

Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".

Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.

The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.

Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.

Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

[ProblemSniper @ProblemSniper]

👇🏼 This OPEX rotation is telling you something. Listen to it.

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

The Market can’t top when there are short reports against $NVDA

I don’t make the rules (well actually I do)
🤭🌳

[Steve Teilmann @SteveTeilmann]

Check out a free preview to my newsletter here, featuring $P as trade of the week: https://t.co/M5kCQ8mab4

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

This memory blow off is starting
$SNDK up at 1635 and $MU 800

Largest daily candle last Friday and now we are gapping again.

$2000 SNDK and $1000 MU could put in the top.

Look for highest volume since the run started, largest daily spreads and more gaps for the climax signal.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

The four nuclear/uranium ETFs with massive weekly bases $URA $URNM $NUKZ $NLR.

Fresh theme. Just waiting for it to gain traction and breakout.

[Bracco ⚡️ @Braczyy]

Many people been reached out asking about parabolics on $SNDK $MU $INTC etc.

Here is a small database I did a while back studying some prior big cap parabolic reversals. Studied their ATR multiples from 50MA the day before the peak as well as the % extension above specific moving averages

ATR multiples above the 50MA from @jfsrev beat simple percent gains because they adjust for the stock's unique volatility. That is what I like to focus on the most. Helps reveal true overextensions in parabolic moves that just straight up percentages often mislead imo.

The average ATR multiple above 50MA on these listed is 17x and that is BEFORE the climax day, some have hit highs of 25-30x the day they peak.

$SNDK is only sitting at 11.35x as of the close, notably below the average. It also is below average for all of the % above MA readings besides 200ma.

These names can get much more extreme than you think. You need strict criteria for these setups or it's a waste of time.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

$MP You look at monthly- And you love it more

US Government's backing
Apple's backing

thats a strong support.

[Swami @SwamiKnows_]

This is a must listen for anyone actively trading the market, especially retail. It gives voice to what my intuition has been telling me, that these dips and the supporting flurry of doomer messaging are liquidity traps to lure shorts in to then use them as a spring board to launch the market higher. The level of disbelief I witnessed during the move up on this v-bottom was maybe more pronounced than last year. A second “most hated” rally in a row, same time as last year.

The admin has a former Hedge Fund manager and cold blooded FX killer running Treasury. They know the massive mechanics at the heart of the market and how to manipulate them to keep the market afloat and moving higher even among all time high valuations, market concentration, and extreme geopolitical risks. Most hated rallies go from disbelief to the realization it’s going to keep going, then the chasing really begins, and the recursive loop cranks up its speed again. Higher equity values = high collateral for leverage = massively more liquidity in the system.

The music will stop eventually but that could be years away. This market is being professionally managed by the most powerful institution in the world - the US government. Act accordingly.

Remember that dinner Trump hosted with JPM, BLK, GS, MS, etc in November? I wonder what they talked about?

[Jared L Kubin @JaredKubin]

HOT TAKE: The only “free alpha” left in public markets is IPO allocations

Why? Misaligned incentives everywhere

-Allocations go to the biggest clients
-Deals are engineered for day 1 pops (30–40%) off sandbagged numbers
-Long onlys & HFs get instant benchmark outperformance
-Employees are locked up while others exit
-Retail has ZERO access early and shows up late as liquidity … feature not bug
-VCs don’t trade …and it shows post-IPO
Secondaries + lockups stay opaque by design… SLOPPY action

IPOs have turned from a capital raise process to a risk/distribution process

And at scale (SpaceX, Ant, OpenAI?) this breaks…bookmark this: post-mega IPO cycle, restructuring the IPO process becomes the market debate of 2027

*maybe a good topic on the process in my education series

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

THE WHITE HOUSE BASKET

Government Ownership
• $USAR rare earth supply chain reshoring
• $MP critical minerals & magnet supply chain
• $LAC domestic lithium supply for batteries
• $TMQ copper, zinc & critical metals exposure
• $INTC domestic semiconductor manufacturing

Revenue Sharing
• $NVDA & $AMD AI infrastructure tied to government revenue-sharing structure

Golden Dome
• $LMT missile defense & aerospace systems
• $BA defense aviation & aerospace manufacturing
• $NOC defense electronics, space & missile systems

Trump Policy-Favored Themes
• $CEG nuclear power & grid reliability
• $TSLA autonomous vehicles, robotics & U.S. manufacturing
• $PLTR defense AI, government software & national-security workflows

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

Everyone seems to think we will V-shape back to all-time highs if the war resolves.

The reality is, we've been distributing since October far before the war started.