Stock Notebook

📓 Your daily notebook for market insights, stock analysis & trading ideas | Curating what matters in markets | Not financial advice | Est. 2025

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@WarMonitor3 • US/Israel hitting 500+ targets daily

• Iran using direct Russian intel to strike US bases

• 4,500+ US troops arrive in Middle East

• Ground invasion prep underway (Kharg Island, Hormuz, or nuke raids) to break the stalemate.

Massive escalation.

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

• Tech/Mag7 down, Oil hit $113 (rate hike risk rising).

• MESI sectors (Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) are the play: +13% YTD.

• Strait of Hormuz escalating.

• New buys: $INTC (Agentic AI CPU demand) & $META (cheap at 16x PE).

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

• 95% oil imports.

• 5.1% inflation forecast.

• The Philippines is the canary in the coal mine for emerging markets. 🇵🇭 This is a structural tailwind for global inflation that central banks cannot hike away.

https://t.co/hhxhTPRyxp

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Barron's roundtable pros say AI is rewriting tech investing.

Massive infrastructure demand makes semis and data platforms strong buys.

Top picks to ride the AI wave include $NVDA, $AVGO, $ASML, $SNOW, $NET, $FROG, $META, & $AMZN.

Investors must watch surging capex closely.

https://t.co/PGcUqSu6ru

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@IranObserver0 US decapitation strikes left decentralized Iranian forces fighting from invulnerable "missile cities."

To forcibly reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz, the US must deploy advanced Aegis naval tech, risking total war to force capitulation.

#IranWar

https://t.co/EAk2WZrs7H

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Swarmer $SWMR shares fell 28% to $26.36 Monday after a massive post-IPO surge.

Despite the dip, the Erik Prince-backed drone tech firm remains up 420% from its $5 debut.

Its AI software has powered 100k+ Ukrainian missions.

$KRMN $SPX $DJIA #Drones #Investing

https://t.co/8x6USxfrqV

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Why South Korea's KOSPI violently dropped 5%:

• Energy: Imports 98% of needs (70% via Hormuz)

• Margins: $100+ oil instantly crushes profits for semis & heavy industry

• Currency: The Won hitting 17-year lows triggers massive forced foreign liquidations

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@Geiger_Capital South Korea's KOSPI over the last 8 quarters:

Q1'24: 2,746
Q2'24: 2,792
Q3'24: 2,605
Q4'24: 2,399
Q1'25: 2,483
Q2'25: 3,074
Q3'25: 3,424
Q4'25: 4,214

Today: 5,565 (down from 5,900)

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@KobeissiLetter Q1'24: $2,229
Q2'24: $2,326
Q3'24: $2,634
Q4'24: $2,644
Q1'25: $3,123
Q2'25: $3,269
Q3'25: $3,869
Q4'25: $4,319

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@KobeissiLetter Q1'24: $2,229
Q2'24: $2,326
Q3'24: $2,634
Q4'24: $2,644
Q1'25: $3,123
Q2'25: $3,269
Q3'25: $3,869
Q4'25: $4,319

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@KobeissiLetter • 29 hours left.

• Offensive strategy activated.

• Energy, IT, and water targeted.

The repricing when the Strait officially shuts is going to be violent.

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Strait of Hormuz daily traffic has collapsed:

Pre-crisis: 60-70 tankers moving 20M barrels
(20% of global supply).

Today: 0-2 tankers.

Only the shadow fleet and a few cleared vessels are crossing. 125 million barrels of crude are now stranded in the Gulf.

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Targeting Middle East desalination plants is the region's 'nuclear option.'

Iran won't mine the Strait: an oil spill would destroy 65+ water plants, leaving millions—including Iran's own allies—to die of thirst.

Retaliatory strikes would spark a doomsday humanitarian crisis.

https://t.co/5WNbmNezp0

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@KobeissiLetter • Gas: +45%

• Inflation expectations: 5.2%

• Mortgage rates: 2026 highs

• Rate cuts: Cancelled

The data is screaming stagflation.

The market is completely unprepared for the Fed to start hiking again.

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

@KobeissiLetter • Gas: +45%

• Inflation expectations: 5.2%

• Mortgage rates: 2026 highs

• Rate cuts: Cancelled

The data is screaming stagflation.

The market is completely unprepared for the Fed to start hiking again.

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

The AI infrastructure boom in numbers:

• 800 to 1,000 New Data Centers under construction

• Big 4 Tech 2026 CapEx: $650B+

• Hotspots: VA, TX, AZ

Capital is aggressively rotating from physical offices to silicon, power grids, and liquid cooling.

$AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $META

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Global Oil Reserves: 3.7 Billion+ barrels

Global LNG Strategic Reserves: 0

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Global Oil Reserves: 3.7 Billion+ barrels

Global LNG Strategic Reserves: 0

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Fed Decision Highlights:

• Rates UNCHANGED (11-1 vote)

• 2026 rate cuts slashed to just ONE

• 2026 PCE inflation forecast raised to 2.7%

• Middle East risks labeled "uncertain"

The market's dream of a massive 2026 easing cycle is officially over.

[Stock Notebook @StockNotebook]

Nebius $NBIS fell 10% after announcing a $3.75B bond offering to fund AI data centers.

This follows a $27B deal with Meta $META and a $2B investment from Nvidia $NVDA.

Investors are weighing high growth potential against massive capital requirements.