Stonkcast

The market show for the average Joe. Stocks, macro & momentum — New episodes Thursday 6AM & Sunday 7PM ET 📈

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

Trump Took 10% of Intel: Former White House Aide on Who Gets Picked | AI Next https://t.co/BRu405neQS

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@sspencer_smb and when there is no revenue you talk about future projections lol

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📊 DAILY MARKET RECAP — AUGUST 21, 2026

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A bounce that didn't save the week. $DJI +0.98% (+518) to 53,277.01, $SPX +0.43% to 7,674.10, $IXIC +0.43% to 26,180.45 — Friday clawed back part of Thursday's rout. All four majors still finished the week red, snapping a three-week win streak.

The catch: the rebound came into rising yields, not falling ones. 10-year 4.74% from 4.69%, 30-year 5.27% from 5.23% — both up again, with the long bond near its highest since 2007 this week. That's the mirror image of the setup that fueled Wednesday's rally. 🔺

Breadth backed the move. $RUT +0.85% to 3,017.87, back over 3,000. $VIX -5.5% to 15.13. Advancers beat decliners roughly 1.8-to-1 on the NYSE and the Dow led — a broad bid, not a megacap squeeze.

$ROST +4.4% to 239.04 after raising its profit outlook — though it opened up over 8% and faded half the move before the close. Healthcare capped its best week since June, still riding Wednesday's Moderna-Merck cancer-vaccine data.

The week in one line: $SPX -1.4%, $IXIC ~-2%, $DJI -0.8%, $RUT -1.6%. Two cool inflation prints couldn't outweigh a bond-market scare and a fresh leg higher in oil. Yields, not earnings, ran this tape.

The week ahead: Jackson Hole, with Chair Warsh's first symposium speech as the marquee event — his first real read on the September path after three FOMC members dissented for a hike. $NVDA earnings next week are the AI trade's next test.

[Conor McGregor @TheNotoriousMMA]

If the world is against the truth, then I am against the world. Lying lips are an abomination to the Lord! I’d rather be cancelled by society than rejected by Christ

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@KrisPatel99 They gotta do something because Anthropic is probably gonna IPO for more than $SPCX The beauty of the token war is the consumer benefits massively too

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@StockMKTNewz Beautiful, month of August has been great for $TSLA let's see if she can get above the 50 SMA next week and close the daily gap

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@TheRonnieVShow @wealthmatica $ZETA with a beautiful daily candle close with the wick on the bottom, buyers stepped in. Let's see 30 next week

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@CKCapitalxx $AAOI gotta fund the datacenter buildout

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@FirstSquawk $SPY $DIA $QQQ still holding near ATH despite rising yields

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@StockSavvyShay $PLTR doing more in income than they did in revenue a year ago

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@CheddarFlow $QQQ briefly dipped below the 50 SMA but bulls defended it well, still early and further upside will most likely require yields to come off

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@KobeissiLetter $IBIT back above the 200 SMA, first test after this would be around 46.50

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@unusual_whales If we want to stop these increasing bond yields, $USO and oil are going to have to come down first

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@ARKInvest @SpaceXAI A ton of room for $SPCX especially as the AI segment of revenue continues to grow and develop

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@StockMKTNewz $MRK still waiting on FDA approval but so far this is looking nice and analysts are starting to reflect the recent cancer trial success

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@unusual_whales $SPY still looking bearish on the daily, might be wise to fade any morning up moves

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

What to watch:
The 9:45 flash PMIs are the only real macro catalyst before the weekend, landing into a tape where the bond market — not growth — sets the tone. Services is the one. Consensus already models a step down to 53.9 from 54.6, and the Eurozone, UK and Japan flashes all came in better than expected overnight. A hot U.S. services print with firm prices-paid re-arms the “no cuts, maybe a hike” trade and pushes the 10Y back toward the week's highs; a cool print gives the equity bounce room to extend into the close.

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

Yield-stabilization bounce into a Friday with one data point and no earnings gravity — futures +0.3–0.6% is a relief trade, not a trend change, with the 30Y still closing the week at decade-plus highs and rate futures pricing a 1-in-3 hike. Fade strength above the 9:45 PMI unless services cools; the real risk transfer is next Wednesday at 4:05 PM when NVDA prints.

BIAS: CONSTRUCTIVE INTRADAY / DEFENSIVE ON THE WEEK
CONVICTION: MEDIUM
QQQ: 5 STRAIGHT DOWN DAYS
INDEXES TRACKING ~−2% ON THE WEEK

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

📊 DAILY MARKET RECAP — AUGUST 20, 2026

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One day after records, the floor gave out. $DJI -1.32% (-703.84) to 52,759.21, its worst day in months, with Walmart the single biggest drag. $SPX -0.85% to 7,642.21, $IXIC -1.00% to 26,067.17. Wednesday's buyback euphoria didn't survive 24 hours.

The tell was in bonds. Yesterday's Treasury buyback rally fully reversed — 10-year yield back to 4.69% from 4.65%, 30-year 5.23% from 5.19%. Bessent said the buybacks could top the $4B announced, and duration sold off anyway. When the bid can't hold yields down, that's the story. 🔺

$WMT -9.2% to 103.84, its worst session in over four years. US comparable sales missed and it cut the adjusted profit guide for both Q3 and the full year — a token raise to annual targets didn't cover it. The week's biggest consumer read was a warning.

$RUT -1.34% to 2,992.43, back below 3,000 and round-tripping the no-hike rally for the second time this month. $VIX +7.5% to 16.01. Nasdaq's fifth straight down day — the small-cap and vol tape says this isn't just a Walmart problem.

Oil did the rest. Trump vowed an "economic D-Day" on Iran over Hormuz, and crude pushed to its highest in nearly a month. Higher oil feeds the inflation worry that's driving yields — the energy and rates threads are now the same trade.

Tomorrow's watch: quiet Friday with no major data or earnings. The real catalyst is Jackson Hole ahead, where Chair Warsh speaks — the first read on the September path after this week's data, with three FOMC members already on record wanting a hike.

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@wealthmatica a lot of room to run for $KEEL formally known as BITF. The datacenter build out is not stopping as we saw from Jensen's 500B announcement the other week

[Stonkcast @StonkcastShow]

@WheelieInvestor Think we are going to have a boring market till August is over baring some new development in geopolitical tensions