I did think, let’s go about this slowly. This is important. This should take some really deep thought.
We should take small thoughtful steps.
But, bless us, we didn’t.
—Mary Oliver
Polymarket just turned on fees and immediately jumped into the top 4 highest-earning crypto projects.
$2M per day. While still having significantly lower fees than Kalshi.
Source: DefiLlama
I dunno, a digital, divisible, fungible, easily transferable, easily stored, impossible to fake, difficult to confiscate, difficult to produce, non sovereign asset…with ultimate scarcity…seems kinda valuable to me.
Waiting decades for retirement feels insane once you’ve lived through a crypto bull run and seen how your entire life can change in a few months instead of 20–30 years.
Major cheat code in life: Understanding you can reinvent yourself at any time. New habits, new standards, new friend group, new career, etc. There's no rule that says you have to stay the person you've always been. You're allowed to decide... "I'm done being this version of me."
A friend suggested that a future @Polymarket airdrop would be volume based, thinking 1% could be possible.
If there is an airdrop, I would think 1% is too high, and volume alone not the deciding factor.
I don’t know what function the POLY token might have (reduction in fees? Participation in fees? Replacement of UMA?) but I imagine there probably will be an airdrop. They have hinted too much at it and the community expects it.
There probably will also be an ICO given the large number of VCs invested in Polymarket. But of course airdrop and ICO are speculation.
A while back I stopped doing airdrop-only stuff on Polymarket and just focused on using the platform for what I liked. After all, there is a small chance no airdrop comes and to spend a huge amount of time on something that might not happen is a real waste.
Also, and this directly relates to my friend’s question, we have no idea what metrics Polymarket will consider important for an airdrop. Almost certainly pure volume won’t be the only variable as this is easy to game. So to try to guess 5%, 1%, 0.05% of volume is a waste of time.
Polymarket is dropping hints as to what it likes in the form of what it is actually willing to pay for — maker fees, LP fees, referral fees and so forth.
So my guess is that liquidity providing, market making, bringing new people into the ecosystem and such will be important. Also weighted volume as they have recently described in their taker program could be more important than just volume itself.
Other variables that come to mind are the age of an account, how active is it, how diverse are the markets it trades, and does it interact on social media with Polymarket related stuff?
So in sum, volume alone is likely to be a poor indicator of airdrop size and probably best not to overly worry about it.