Strait Intelligence

Shipping Market Intelligence - Platform built around the shipping cycles for Investors In the shipping sector

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

UK STEPS UP SUPPORT FOR SAUDI ARABIA
Britain has agreed to provide defensive air-to-air refuelling support to Saudi forces as Houthi attacks intensify.
The RAF will deploy a Voyager tanker aircraft for a limited period following a formal request from Riyadh.
The move comes as Houthi advances around Yemen’s Red Sea coast increase the threat to Bab el-Mandeb and Saudi energy

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

HORMUZ TRAFFIC HAS COLLAPSED BACK TO JUST 4 VESSELS

Reuters ship-tracking data shows only four vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday:

• 2 entered
• 2 exited
• No VLCCs
• No LNG carriers

That compares with a recent 10-day average of 18 vessels.

Some ships are still using Iranian waters and “dark” AIS-off routes, so actual traffic may be slightly higher.

But the key point is clear:

The tentative return of VLCC traffic has NOT developed into a normal reopening.

Hormuz remains severely constrained — keeping tanker availability tight and freight rates exceptionally elevated.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

SAUDI CRUDE DISRUPTION IS NOW RESHAPING TANKER FLOWS

Saudi Aramco has cancelled some late-September European cargoes following the East–West pipeline/Yanbu disruption.

European refiners are already scrambling for replacement barrels from the US, Guyana, Kazakhstan and North Africa.

That matters for tankers:

Saudi Red Sea barrels ↓
Atlantic Basin replacement crude ↑
Voyage distances ↑
Tonne-mile demand ↑

At the same time, Saudi Arabia may try to push more crude through Hormuz despite the security risk.

This is no longer just an oil-price story — it is becoming a major tanker-routing story.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

VLCC FREIGHT HAS ENTERED UNCHARTED TERRITORY
The Baltic TD3C Middle East Gulf–China benchmark has now crossed the equivalent of $1 MILLION PER DAY for the first time.
The squeeze is spreading across the tanker market:

• Gulf of Oman VLCCs: ~$450k/day
• WAF–Far East: ~$380k/day
• US Gulf–Asia: ~$275k/day
• Med Suezmaxes: >$435k/day

Even vessel values are reacting — Braemar estimates a 10-year-old VLCC at around $150m, above a ~$135m newbuild.

This is no longer just strong freight.

It’s historic rates + fleet inefficiency + rising asset values all at once.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

HORMUZ: TENTATIVE SIGNS OF VLCC MOVEMENT RETURNING

Satellite tracking suggests VLCCs are again transiting the Strait of Hormuz in both directions during daylight hours.

There are also signs of more ship-to-ship transfers of crude, LNG and LPG in the Gulf of Oman.

This looks less like a normal reopening and more like a new operating model:

Daylight transits → reduced time inside Hormuz → offshore STS transfers.

If this continues, some Gulf export capacity could recover — but with traffic still far below normal, tanker availability, delays, war-risk premiums and freight rates should remain elevated.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

Iran and Oman agree a narrow Hormuz route workaround — but a second vessel strike, a disputed mine claim, and a downed drone say diplomacy isn't matched by de-escalation.
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[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

Iran-Gulf Hormuz talks postponed hours before they were set to begin — Saudi's bypass pipeline still shut.
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[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

⚠️ YEN CARRY-TRADE WATCH

USD/JPY is around 153.5, Nasdaq futures are down ~1.3%, the Nikkei ~1.6%, KOSPI ~3.2%, US 10Y yields are near 5%, and Brent is around $107.

Stronger yen + weaker risk assets + high yields + $100+ oil is exactly the combination to watch for carry-trade deleveraging.

We’re not at a full unwind yet, but if USD/JPY breaks 150 quickly while equities keep falling and volatility/credit stress rise, things could accelerate fast.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

HORMUZ TRAFFIC REMAINS SEVERELY DEPRESSED
Reuters reports commodity-vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits per day over the weekend.

Only 4 vessels exited the Gulf and 10 entered — and just one outbound vessel was a Suezmax carrying crude or condensate.

Before the war, Hormuz handled roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

HORMUZ UPDATE
The vessel struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz early Sunday was reportedly an Iranian commercial ship.
Iranian state media reports 1 killed and 3 wounded.
Important distinction: this was not another attack on a foreign tanker — but it reinforces the bigger issue.
With Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline disrupted and vessels still being hit inside Hormuz, physical risk to Gulf shipping remains extremely elevated.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

BLACK SEA GRAIN DISRUPTION
Russian seaborne grain exports collapsed 61.9% YoY in August to just 2.0mt.

Even more striking, shipments through the Azov–Black Sea system fell 73.1% to only 1.3mt.

Russia is trying to reroute cargoes through the Baltic, but August Baltic shipments were just 276,000 tonnes — nowhere near enough to replace lost southern capacity.

For dry bulk, the implication is clear: more buyers may be forced toward Argentina, the US, Canada and Australia, increasing voyage distances and supporting Panamax/Supramax tonne-mile demand.

#DryBulk #Shipping #Grain #BlackSea

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

BAB EL-MANDEB: Saudi-backed Yemeni forces are preparing a counteroffensive against the Houthis after their rapid advance down the Red Sea coast and seizure of Perim Island.

That raises the risk of direct fighting around one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints.

Tanker read: a battle for Perim/Bab el-Mandeb could trigger higher war-risk premiums, owner avoidance and more Cape rerouting — just as Hormuz remains heavily constrained.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

BAB EL-MANDEB: The Houthis say commercial navigation remains safe — except for Saudi vessels, which remain under a declared ban.

That matters because Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on Yanbu and Red Sea exports to bypass Hormuz.

Tanker read: Saudi-linked tankers now face explicit risk at the very chokepoint needed for the Kingdom’s alternative export route.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

SAUDI OIL: Saudi Arabia has now confirmed attacks on the East–West crude pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown.

This is the key system carrying crude across the Kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing exports to bypass Hormuz.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

SAUDI OIL: The IEA estimates Saudi crude supply fell 2.3M bpd in August to just 6.0M bpd — the lowest level in more than 30 years.

Saudi crude loadings dropped 1.1M bpd to 3.5M bpd.

Reuters-verified satellite imagery also showed smoke near the East-West pipeline feeding Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s key Hormuz-bypass route. No official confirmation yet of an attack or outage.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

BAB EL-MANDEB: The Houthis say international commercial shipping is not their target — but Saudi-linked vessels remain under naval blockade.

That matters because Saudi Arabia is increasingly routing crude through Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass Hormuz, with recent loadings estimated near 3.7M bpd.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

BLACK SEA GRAIN DISRUPTION
The risk to Ukraine’s export network is spreading again.
Poland says it averted a direct threat to one of its border crossings with Ukraine, raising concern that Russia may increasingly target the land corridors Kyiv is relying on as Black Sea and Danube routes remain constrained.
At the same time, Russian September wheat exports are still projected at just ~1.75mt vs 4.9mt a year ago.

If more Ukrainian fallback routes come under pressure, buyers in Europe, MENA and Asia will have to source even more grain from Argentina, the US and other long-haul origins.

That keeps the Panamax/Supramax tonne-mile story firmly in focus.

#DryBulk #Shipping #Grain #BlackSea

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

TEN Q2 RESULTS

TEN Ltd. $TEN reports a very strong second quarter:

• Net income: $139.3m
• EPS: $4.40
• Adjusted EPS: $3.14
• Revenue: $298.4m

Another strong earnings print from the tanker sector as elevated freight markets continue to feed directly into owner profitability.

#Tankers #Shipping #TEN

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

BAB EL-MANDEB: Reuters reports Houthi forces have captured the strategic Red Sea port of Mocha and are pushing south toward Dhubab, directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

With Hormuz already severely constrained, the risk is now rising at both major Middle East shipping chokepoints.

[Strait Intelligence @StraitIntel]

Trump says the war ends "immediately after the election" — but Wednesday's tape didn't buy it: Brent closed $103.32 and every reporting tanker name traded up as Hormuz stays effectively closed. TEN reports today.
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