I must say, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is toying with the world with what could be considered 500 IQ plays.
Mythos Fable was intented for exactly what has just happened. The US government is playing into his hand.
Dario Amodei has been extremely vocal about the dangers of AI; often comparing it to Nuclear weapons.
"You wouldn't want American companies to sell nukes to North Korea"
The security focus on Mythos, including the effort of Project Glasswing, a sweeping cybersecurity initiative led by Anthropic that unites major technology and finance companies to secure critical software. and the limited release of Mythos Fable was an attempt to attract government oversight, underscoring faults and possible risks from bad actors; setting the precedent for nationalization of the AI Ecosystem.
The upper echelon of Frontier models will be nationalized.
The EU and adverseries will now have to train their own frontier models, which increases the demand for top of the line compute like $NVDA Vera Rubin and $AMD MI350X / MI355X.
1. You limit access to models -> artificially hightening demand for compute $NVDA / $AMD / $AVGO
Beneficiaries:
- Antropic / OpenAI / $GOOG / $META: Less short-term frontier competition
- $NVDA / $AMD / $AVGO: Largest downstream companies (delivering end product)
2. You limit access to compute (tariffs + export controls) -> artificially hightening demand, for foundry + memory, in new configurations OR compute at extreme prices and limited rates.
Beneficiaries:
- $TSM / Samsung / $INTC: Only tier-1 fabs reside in Taiwan, Korea and the US
- AI Specialized Clouds (Sovereign demand): $NBIS (Most pure, already developing sites for sovereign AI in UK, Israel and more) / $MSFT / $AMZN / $GOOG
3. The US government profits by taking stakes in critical AI companies accompanied by tariffs.
4. No one can harm the US, because they own what will be considered AGI, combined with a world-class geopolitical position (critical resources & geographical positioning).
Beneficiaries:
- US government + US AI ecosystem
You do not want to know what happens after point 4.
MLPerf® Training 6.0 results are in: Nebius posted the #1 single-node NVIDIA HGX B300 times for Llama-3.1-8B and GPT-OSS 20B pre-training, and came within 3.1% of the fastest NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 results on all three benchmarks at 72 GPUs. https://t.co/sc4tgpWnpD
SpaceX $SPCX will probably surpass $NVDA in MC soon 🫵
Reasons:
1. TAM: Intangible (to some infinite)
2. Low float: 4-5% (realisticly even lower)
3. index inflow: unprecedented index acceptance (???)
4. rockets (🚀🚀🚀)
5. Options market opens soon (Gamma)
6. Codex will turbo-charge Grok (🦾🤖🦿)
7. Tesla ingestion (good luck)
Micro designed vesting schemes + acquistions will wreck retail; essentially the largest nominal value share dillution.
I don’t hold a position.
Lift off countdown started friday, engines started monday and machs will start increasing expontially, brace for impact, you’ll probably miss it.
If Tesla $TSLA holders gave Elon his desired control (~25% equity stake atleast) everything would have been eaten and destined for the Tesla company.
Now that he has super voting shares, he will have control indefinitely.
This was meant to be a short post, summarizing everything, but the plot is thickening and every piece is falling into place.
There is much more to this.
I know that this view will both enhance the investing mania and show flaws abused in the IPO space.
Might even get exposure limited.
I am actually not bullish nor bearish on the stock; I am bullish in the company as an organization, the talent behind it and Elon’s vision.
The mission is novel and he’ll likely succeed.
But at this stage I will not be funding any of it, if I had the chance years ago, I would.
The explanation is EXTREMELY simple if you actually care for it. $SPCX 🚀
The vision is futuristic if not intangible; it does not run on fundamentals because the TAM is conceived as unlimited.
The underlying mechanics of the IPO has everything to do with the “TRILLION” dollar moves we’re seeing, with in days.
Only 4-5% of float was available; now less is.
These 4-5% (~137.5B, it changes every second) moves the multi trillion dollar market capitulization with it, inorganically.
@QuintenFrancois People look at a 5, 10, 20 or even 25 trillion dollar valuation and think it’s impossible.
Thats the nominal value, its 20x easier than it looks.
I don’t invest in SpaceX $SPCX - please don’t post an argument without reading the post below.
https://t.co/7TXIBEp1KJ
The explanation is EXTREMELY simple if you actually care for it. $SPCX 🚀
The vision is futuristic if not intangible; it does not run on fundamentals because the TAM is conceived as unlimited.
The underlying mechanics of the IPO has everything to do with the “TRILLION” dollar moves we’re seeing, with in days.
Only 4-5% of float was available; now less is.
These 4-5% (~137.5B, it changes every second) moves the multi trillion dollar market capitulization with it, inorganically.
If you have actually seen this post, possibly even read it; please just absorb this one takeaway: DONT SHORT IT and GET OUT BEFORE VESTING GETS IN.
SIMPLY: Don’t bet against Elon.
But, if you let him, you most-likely will get steamrolled.
These small tweaks at the IPO level (many more prior to this) made Elon Musk gain, more than what Warren Buffet did, in his whole career, in a single day… to then just do it again in overnight market from a much lesser % gain.