Stuart Dowell

Political Editor & Commentator at TVP World | Poland & CEE | Politics, elections, security and geopolitics | Warsaw-based | Views my own

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

A shocking part of the Trump–Russia "peace plan" isn’t just what it does to Ukraine. It is what it quietly does to Poland.

Buried in point 9 is a sentence that looks harmless: European fighters will be stationed in Poland.

On paper, that sounds fine. In practice, though, it looks like Washington and Moscow have agreed over Poland’s head to limit the presence of foreign forces on Polish soil, including US forces, and to put a ceiling on NATO air power over the region.

If “European fighters” are explicitly named, the obvious Russian reading is simple: no US jets in Poland. And if Russia is co-signing language that defines who and what can be stationed here, it is also a de facto say over NATO air policing in the Baltics and the rest of the eastern flank.

That is not “Pax Americana.” That is the US accepting a Russian veto over the security posture of front-line allies.

For Polish politics this hits a very specific nerve. For years, Jarosław Kaczyński and now President Karol Nawrocki have built their doctrine on one core idea: forget Brussels, forget Berlin, our security rests on a direct, privileged relationship with Washington.

For a country that has spent a decade telling itself that American power is the only real guarantee, that should be a brutal wake-up call.

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

Warsaw's mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, has appealed for marchers to avoid flares and firecrackers, pointing out that after Saturday's shooting, loud bangs on the streets carry a very different significance.

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

Poland's right is gathering in Warsaw today, and there's quite a lot going on beneath the surface of this year's Independence March.

The event is shaping up to be a huge show of strength for the whole right-wing bloc. But it will also give its increasingly fragmented parties an opportunity to jockey for position.

Here's what to expect and what's going on politically. 1/ 👇

https://t.co/HbhvLbZwDB

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

Then there's the Kraków tragedy. The organisers have announced a minute's silence for the victims and a tribute to the police officers who stopped the attacker.

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

The investigation into the Kraków massacre is increasingly pointing towards a gunman fascinated by mass murderers, their methods and the atrocities they committed.

One of the most revealing clues is a four-letter inscription found on the shooter's locker at work: GGER.

Poland's Internal Security Agency believes it stands for “Good Game Elliot Rodger”, an apparent tribute to the American who murdered six people in California in 2014.

Investigators have identified some striking similarities between the two attacks.

Rodger first murdered three people in his apartment before driving into the city in a black BMW, shooting at pedestrians and attacking people with his car.

The Kraków gunman is suspected of first killing his parents and sister at their family home before driving a black car into Kraków and opening fire on people on the market square.

Both men reportedly carried more than 500 rounds of ammunition.

Investigators examined the shooter's computer and found evidence that he had spent weeks researching notorious killers, including:

- Anders Breivik, the Norwegian far-right terrorist who murdered 77 people in 2011.
- Charles Manson, the American cult leader whose followers committed a series of murders in 1969.
- Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber, whose bombing campaign killed three people.

Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek confirmed on Tuesday that the gunman had visited websites about Breivik and said investigators had found indications of far-right extremism but he didn't give further details.

A yellow Gadsden flag bearing the words “Don't Tread on Me” was also found in his bedroom, although prosecutors have cautioned that the symbol has several meanings and is not itself evidence of extremism.

No manifesto or suicide note has been found.

https://t.co/CpmEGe1KNy

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

Wall Street Journal: "Poland has one of the strongest economies in Europe, one of NATO’s highest rates of military spending and a nearly unmatched understanding of Russia’s threat to the continent. Yet the country punches below its weight on the world stage.

The reason? A divided political system that has paralyzed both sides for years and complicated Warsaw’s relationships with both President Trump and some of Europe’s biggest powers."

https://t.co/ZwiQo88cpp

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

The Kraków shootings have understandably shaken the sense of security but the underlying achievement remains.

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

Saturday's massacre in Kraków has brought into focus one of Poland's greatest, and least celebrated, achievements: just how safe this country has become. 1/ 👇
https://t.co/JaDsNAkpfR

[Stuart Dowell @StuartDowell_]

How people obtain weapons, and how effectively licence holders are supervised, looks set to become a major political issue.

But we should distinguish between the psychological shock of an atrocity and evidence that Poland has become fundamentally more dangerous.