You want:
Fidelity
Capital Group
T. Rowe
sovereign funds
pension funds
holding the stock.
Investment banks spend decades building these relationships.
That's not easily replicated.
Distribution matters
A lot.
The public sees an IPO as:
"selling stock"
Institutions see it as:
"placing stock with the right owners."
You don't want:
fast-money hedge funds
momentum traders
IPO flippers
owning the entire float.
Or in one sentence:
The highest-return opportunities often come from being right about the long term while everyone else is obsessed with the short term.
The article's core lesson is not:
"Fundamentals always win."
A better interpretation is:
Markets are dominated by short-term incentives and psychology, which regularly push expectations away from reality.
The best investors:
Understand the narrative.
Understand the fundamentals.
Understand incentives and flows.
Identify where expectations and reality diverge.
Have the patience and capital structure to wait for convergence.
Each question reduces uncertainty.
The goal isn't asking questions.
The goal is maximizing information gained per question.
The coin puzzle is exactly that.
Investing Analogy
Suppose you meet a startup founder.
A beginner investor asks:
Should I invest?
A stronger investor asks:
What question can I ask that gives me the most information?
For example:
customer retention
founder references
sales efficiency
The deeper intuition
Most beginners think:
What action should I take?
Experts think:
What information will this action produce?
The action is secondary.
The information is primary.
The deepest intuition
Entropy is not really “things becoming messy.”
It is:
Systems naturally moving toward states that can happen in vastly more ways.
That statistical asymmetry is what gives the universe its apparent direction of time.
Most physicists today would also say the Moon exists when nobody looks.
The real issue is subtler:
For certain microscopic properties, quantum mechanics may not allow a definite value before interaction.
Why Einstein disliked this
Einstein believed reality should exist independently of observation.
His famous question was:
Does the Moon exist only when someone looks at it?
He thought the answer should obviously be "no."
Many Worlds Interpretation
Proposed by Hugh Everett III.
Nothing collapses.
Instead:
every possible outcome occurs
reality branches
You see one branch.
The universe contains all branches.
Many physicists find this disturbing.
Others find it elegant.
Copenhagen Interpretation
Historically the most famous.
Before measurement:
properties are not definite.
Measurement:
one outcome becomes real.
This is the version most popular science books describe.
What does "measurement" mean?
This is where physicists start arguing.
Everyone agrees on the experimental results.
Not everyone agrees on what they mean.
There are several major interpretations.
When you place detectors at the slits to determine which slit the electron used, the interference disappears.
This is one of the most experimentally verified results in all of physics.
Double-slit experiment
Fire electrons one at a time toward two slits.
You might expect each electron to choose:
left slit
right slit
Like tiny bullets.
Instead, you get an interference pattern.
The pattern looks as though each electron somehow explored both possibilities.
Reminder for all young parents:
You only get:
- 1 Summer with your baby
- 3 with your toddler
- 9 with your child
- 5 with your teenager
This time is precious. Don’t rush it.
Premise 1:
All birds can fly.
Premise 2:
Penguins are birds.
Deduction:
Penguins can fly.
The logic is perfect.
The conclusion follows necessarily from the premises.
The problem is that Premise 1 is false.
So a flawless deduction produced a false statement about reality.