1999/2019/2021:
Drei Mega-IPO-Jahre. Und drei Markt-Tops.
Morgen: SpaceX. Größtes IPO der Geschichte. 1,77 Bn Bewertung. KUV 95. Verlust 4,9 Mrd.
Ich bleibe an der Seitenlinie. Wer kauft, und mit welcher Logik?
@KobeissiLetter The dispute highlights a broader shift: strategic moves are now fought on the level of narrative before they materialize on the ground.
Record inflows.
Record leverage.
Minimal downside hedging.
This doesn’t mean markets must fall,
but it does mean future returns will be more asymmetric.
In this environment, structure and risk management matter more than conviction.
US fund inflows are skyrocketing:
US equity ETFs have attracted a record +$400 billion over the last 3 months.
Inflows have doubled since August 2025 and now exceed the April 2021 high by +$177 billion.
January inflows into these funds are now running at 5 TIMES the average rate.
Meanwhile, leveraged-long ETFs now hold $145 billion in assets, an all-time high, while funds betting on market declines own just $12 billion.
As a result, bullish leveraged bets now outweigh bearish ones by 12 to 1, the highest on record.
Risk appetite is through the roof.
@KobeissiLetter This is less about “bullishness” and more about positioning risk.
When inflows, leverage and sentiment all move in the same direction, markets don’t become safer, they become more fragile.
Not a timing signal, but a reminder: upside gets crowded long before it disappears.
This is less about blockchain and more about market structure. The real shift isn’t 24/7 trading, but it’s native issuance and instant settlement running in parallel to legacy rails. That changes liquidity dynamics, capital efficiency, and who gets access first.
Tokenization here isn’t an add-on. It’s a second capital market being built alongside the first.
Was diese Woche an den Märkten zählt (KW 4 / 2026):
~10 % des S&P 500 berichten
Netflix, Intel, GE
→ Guidance > Schlagzeilen
US PCE-Inflationsdaten
Wichtiger Input für den Fed-Zinsentscheid nächste Woche
China-Wachstumsdaten
Stabilität wichtiger als Beschleunigung
Risiko: Trump-Zollrhetorik (EU / Grönland)
Politik = kurzfristige Volatilität, kein Strukturbruch
$ADBE notiert wieder unter 200 $ im Chart, trotz solider Q4-Zahlen und AI-Relevanz im Produktportfolio.
Das zeigt genau, was ich an Turnaround-Setups schätze: nicht Trend-Hype, sondern Fundament + Branchenkontext + langfristige Struktur.
Ein besseres Umfeld für Kreativsoftware könnte wieder Wachstum auslösen, aber derzeit rotieren Kapitalströme weg von klassischen Software-Werten hin zu AI-Resilienten Sektoren.