There’s not many guarantees in life……..❤️❤️❤️ one guarantee is that there’s a clean energy transition and in that transition record amounts of lithium is required, it’s will be underestimated like all disruptive environments😎😎take a position and watch it fly in the next 5 yrs
The Yoda of Lithium sector has spoken with facts.......💪💪💪
Price inbound to 40k by end of year as forecated by ganfeng and other major players...💰💰💰🛤️🛤️🛤️
Hold tight the winter has finished, blocking the noise all aboard....🚉🚉🚉🚞🚞🚞
#benchmark#auspol#lithium #
I've been getting questions on the #lithium price pullback and market balance.. so here are some broad thoughts and analyses:
Demand:
- Iran war is massively stimulating switch to EVs. EV sales +90-160% in many countries YoY Apr 2026. Last year's headlines were doom & gloom about "slowing EV sales". In reality, BEVs+PHEVs were 20.7m units, pretty healthy. This year I forecast a re-acceleration in EV sales - lithium use +210kt LCE YoY.
- BESS growth is pretty insane. Last year installations/shipments were ~320/500GWh. This year it's looking like ~500/850GWh. FYI 850GWh --> ~600kt LCE used in those cells so this segment alone might consume 30% of lithium supply this year.
- E-Trucks: Grew 180% (!!) YoY in China last year. More broadly, the Class 4-8 segment represented 5% (86kt LCE) of lithium supply last year and it's just starting to go up the steep part of the S-curve globally. If your analyst doesn't have this in his model, he's missing 150kt LCE use this year.
- Overall, global lithium demand grows from 1.5Mt last year to 2.0Mt in 2026, a 500kt LCE jump.
Supply:
- Mine restarts: To this year's supply, Bald Hill adds 8kt LCE. Ngungajoo adds 10kt. Finniss adds 10kt. Small-ish vs the demand growth.
- Mt Holland "doubling capacity": Won't happen until 2028.
- CATL Jianxiawo mine: Even if it turned on today, it'd produce only 30kt this year. Less considering ramp-up. And there's a cow or two to relocate if recent videos are to be believed. 😉
- Supply growth has been severely constrained in the last two years as companies could not get financing, or built slower. This WILL be felt in 2026 and 2027.
Market Balance:
- I see a deficit this year growing to 2030. Much of this is based off BESS growth to 1.76TWh (+17% from my prev forecast) as countries realize they want to reduce natural gas imports dependence. I'm also pounding the table on E-Trucks here. Watch this space.
- I respect Benchmark's gutsy call for a 2027 surplus. I disagree though. They have been pretty conservative on demand forecasts and I think this year will surprise many analysts.
4.3% close for lithium futures......💥💥💥
What will tomorrow hold for all those sellers of the lithium stock world...🤣🤣🤣
Big green day id say for tomorrow! ⬆️⬆️⬆️
#auspol#ausbiz#lithium
Will the ASX follow today??🧐🧐
US stocks were flat....😫😫😫
Will the futures and spot rise today??🤷♂️🤷♂️
Next leg cant come quick enough, most stocks are now in deep oversold territory on the RSI.....💥💥💥
#auspol#Ausbiz#lithium
Chinese #lithiumstocks surge today, while correction of ASX peers goes on.
Near-term lithium futures increased by 2.8%-3.2% today amid flat spot prices.
@ausstockchick The Gold Coast will be the most expensive city in Australia in the coming year and for decades to come, the new monaco of Australia..... the best spot to live!! Prices will never go down on the Goldy.