henliha

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

技術方法建立在三個基本前提之上:
1. 市場行為預先反應一切
2. 價格發展呈現趨勢
3. 歷史重複發生

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

plasma:native / USDT | Daily + 4H
Status: Price is testing from below a steeply falling EMA200 at 0.1235. That slope is the long downtrend from the highs — this is a bounce into a long-term average, not a trend flip. 4H box support is still intact.

Today is the event: Plasma mainnet launched 2025-09-25. One-year cliff on team + investor tokens expires today. ~1.81B XPL unlocks in one shot, about 65% of then-circulating supply. Float goes from ~2.78B to ~4.67B. This is part of the monthly vest through 2028-09. Unlock ≠ guaranteed dump, but it is clear supply pressure. That is likely why volume expanded and price is chopping at the range edge.

Key levels:
• 0.11510 — daily dashed line + 4H box high. First gate.
• 0.1235 — EMA200. Need this for any real flip.
• 0.1044 / 0.1015 / 0.1000 — defense inside the box
• 4H box low — must hold or the bounce thesis is gone

Plan: Not a guess. Wait for the unlock tape. No chase under EMA200. No add just to bet the flip.
Clear and hold 0.11510, then look at 0.1235. Until then, treat it as a range. If unlock volume spikes and price cannot reclaim the box, stand down.

Targets:
TP1: 0.11510
TP2: 0.1235 (EMA200)
TP3: ~0.14 only after the first two gates

Invalidation / stop:
Daily lose 0.1000 and fail to reclaim, or 4H box low taken and not recovered — long thesis is dead.

Note: Tech (EMA200 test + box support) gives a bullish maybe. Fundamentals (float +60% in a day) are a clear headwind. Signals conflict. Vol should expand. Direction is decided by actual sell pressure vs bids after the unlock, not by the chart alone. Size your own risk. Not financial advice.

$XPL

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

plasma:native / USDT｜日线＋4H
现况： 日线卡在 EMA200 下方测试。EMA200 从高点一路陡降到 0.1235，斜率很陡，反映的是长期空头趋势还没翻完。现价比较像「反弹碰到长期均线」，还称不上真正翻多。4H 箱型还在，支撑先没破。

今天刚好撞上大事件：Plasma 主网 2025/9/25 上线满一年，团队＋投资人一年期悬崖锁仓到期。一次性解锁约 18.1 亿颗 XPL，约当时流通量 65%。流通量从约 27.8 亿拉到约 46.7 亿，是持续到 2028/9 按月解锁的一部分。不保证立刻砸盘，但是明确的供给压力。这两天量能放大、卡在区间边缘，很大机率就是这件事。

重点观察：
• 0.11510：日线虚线＋4H 箱顶，第一道关口
• 0.1235：EMA200，真要翻多至少要站上去
• 0.1044 / 0.1015 / 0.1000：箱内防守阶梯
• 4H 箱底：守住才有反弹资格

操作计划： 现在不是猜方向，是等解锁后几天的抛压 vs 承接。不追 EMA200 下方、不加仓去赌翻多。
站上 0.11510 并站稳，再看 0.1235。没过之前当震荡。解锁后若量增但收不回箱内，先让它走。

目标：
TP1：0.11510
TP2：0.1235（EMA200）
TP3：4H 箭头方向 0.14 附近（要先过前两关才算）

失效 / 止损：
日线失守 0.1000 且收不回，或 4H 箱底被拿掉后无法收回，这波偏多结构作废。

备注： 技术面（测 EMA200＋箱型支撑）给一点偏多空间，基本面（单日流通量暴增六成多）是明确逆风。两边讯号打架，波动率大机率放大。方向看解锁后实际抛压，不看预期。仓位自己控，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。

$XPL

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

plasma:native / USDT | Daily + 4H
Status: Price is testing from below a steeply falling EMA200 at 0.1235. That slope is the long downtrend from the highs — this is a bounce into a long-term average, not a trend flip. 4H box support is still intact.

Today is the event: Plasma mainnet launched 2025-09-25. One-year cliff on team + investor tokens expires today. ~1.81B XPL unlocks in one shot, about 65% of then-circulating supply. Float goes from ~2.78B to ~4.67B. This is part of the monthly vest through 2028-09. Unlock ≠ guaranteed dump, but it is clear supply pressure. That is likely why volume expanded and price is chopping at the range edge.

Key levels:
• 0.11510 — daily dashed line + 4H box high. First gate.
• 0.1235 — EMA200. Need this for any real flip.
• 0.1044 / 0.1015 / 0.1000 — defense inside the box
• 4H box low — must hold or the bounce thesis is gone

Plan: Not a guess. Wait for the unlock tape. No chase under EMA200. No add just to bet the flip.
Clear and hold 0.11510, then look at 0.1235. Until then, treat it as a range. If unlock volume spikes and price cannot reclaim the box, stand down.

Targets:
TP1: 0.11510
TP2: 0.1235 (EMA200)
TP3: ~0.14 only after the first two gates

Invalidation / stop:
Daily lose 0.1000 and fail to reclaim, or 4H box low taken and not recovered — long thesis is dead.

Note: Tech (EMA200 test + box support) gives a bullish maybe. Fundamentals (float +60% in a day) are a clear headwind. Signals conflict. Vol should expand. Direction is decided by actual sell pressure vs bids after the unlock, not by the chart alone. Size your own risk. Not financial advice.

$XPL

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

plasma:native / USDT｜日线＋4H
现况： 日线卡在 EMA200 下方测试。EMA200 从高点一路陡降到 0.1235，斜率很陡，反映的是长期空头趋势还没翻完。现价比较像「反弹碰到长期均线」，还称不上真正翻多。4H 箱型还在，支撑先没破。

今天刚好撞上大事件：Plasma 主网 2025/9/25 上线满一年，团队＋投资人一年期悬崖锁仓到期。一次性解锁约 18.1 亿颗 XPL，约当时流通量 65%。流通量从约 27.8 亿拉到约 46.7 亿，是持续到 2028/9 按月解锁的一部分。不保证立刻砸盘，但是明确的供给压力。这两天量能放大、卡在区间边缘，很大机率就是这件事。

重点观察：
• 0.11510：日线虚线＋4H 箱顶，第一道关口
• 0.1235：EMA200，真要翻多至少要站上去
• 0.1044 / 0.1015 / 0.1000：箱内防守阶梯
• 4H 箱底：守住才有反弹资格

操作计划： 现在不是猜方向，是等解锁后几天的抛压 vs 承接。不追 EMA200 下方、不加仓去赌翻多。
站上 0.11510 并站稳，再看 0.1235。没过之前当震荡。解锁后若量增但收不回箱内，先让它走。

目标：
TP1：0.11510
TP2：0.1235（EMA200）
TP3：4H 箭头方向 0.14 附近（要先过前两关才算）

失效 / 止损：
日线失守 0.1000 且收不回，或 4H 箱底被拿掉后无法收回，这波偏多结构作废。

备注： 技术面（测 EMA200＋箱型支撑）给一点偏多空间，基本面（单日流通量暴增六成多）是明确逆风。两边讯号打架，波动率大机率放大。方向看解锁后实际抛压，不看预期。仓位自己控，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。

$XPL

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

各位等我一下 跟随太多被挡了
只要蓝勾都会回关的
浇个朋友吧

#蓝v #互关 #流量

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

RELRANK 9/25｜Alts vs BTC
BTC 0.0%｜76／100 beat BTC｜median +2.8%
Catch-up day. Breadth is back, but leaders are still one-day spikes — not alt season.
3-day winners: LTC, RAY, CAKE, NEAR
2-day winners still holding: SKY, JST
Fading today: LIT, ZRO, BSV
Giving back: BTW, USELESS, PONS, UNI
One-day spike — not treated as follow-through: QNT, ONDO, XPL, FET
Already-spiked on news — not treated as follow-through: BCH, UNI (CME futures 10/19)
Follow-through only if all 4 gates hold (daily + 4H):
1. Daily vs BTC > 0, and close above the midpoint of yesterday’s candle
2. 4H holds prior low; EMA20 stays below price
3. Pullback on falling volume; next push reclaims ≥70% of yesterday’s volume
4. Daily RSI(14) 55–75; drop under 50 or bearish divergence = cool off

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

RELRANK 9/25｜山寨相对 BTC
BTC 0.0%｜76／100 跑赢｜中位数 +2.8%
补涨日，广度回来，但龙头仍是一日爆冲，还不是山寨季。
连 3 天赢：LTC、RAY、CAKE、NEAR
连 2 天赢且今天还在：SKY、JST
今天先掉：LIT、ZRO、BSV
回吐：BTW、USELESS、PONS、UNI
一日爆冲不列入续强：QNT、ONDO、XPL、FET
有消息已冲过的不列入续强：BCH、UNI（CME 10/19 期货）
续强只看 4 道闸门（日线＋4H）：
1. 日线相对 BTC > 0，且收在昨 K 中段之上
2. 4H 不破前低，EMA20 仍在价格下方
3. 回档量缩、再攻量能回到昨量 70% 以上
4. RSI(14) 日线 55–75；跌破 50 或顶背离先降温

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

RELRANK 9/25｜Alts vs BTC
BTC 0.0%｜76／100 beat BTC｜median +2.8%
Catch-up day. Breadth is back, but leaders are still one-day spikes — not alt season.
3-day winners: LTC, RAY, CAKE, NEAR
2-day winners still holding: SKY, JST
Fading today: LIT, ZRO, BSV
Giving back: BTW, USELESS, PONS, UNI
One-day spike — not treated as follow-through: QNT, ONDO, XPL, FET
Already-spiked on news — not treated as follow-through: BCH, UNI (CME futures 10/19)
Follow-through only if all 4 gates hold (daily + 4H):
1. Daily vs BTC > 0, and close above the midpoint of yesterday’s candle
2. 4H holds prior low; EMA20 stays below price
3. Pullback on falling volume; next push reclaims ≥70% of yesterday’s volume
4. Daily RSI(14) 55–75; drop under 50 or bearish divergence = cool off

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

RELRANK 9/25｜山寨相对 BTC
BTC 0.0%｜76／100 跑赢｜中位数 +2.8%
补涨日，广度回来，但龙头仍是一日爆冲，还不是山寨季。
连 3 天赢：LTC、RAY、CAKE、NEAR
连 2 天赢且今天还在：SKY、JST
今天先掉：LIT、ZRO、BSV
回吐：BTW、USELESS、PONS、UNI
一日爆冲不列入续强：QNT、ONDO、XPL、FET
有消息已冲过的不列入续强：BCH、UNI（CME 10/19 期货）
续强只看 4 道闸门（日线＋4H）：
1. 日线相对 BTC > 0，且收在昨 K 中段之上
2. 4H 不破前低，EMA20 仍在价格下方
3. 回档量缩、再攻量能回到昨量 70% 以上
4. RSI(14) 日线 55–75；跌破 50 或顶背离先降温

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

都是x逼我的 根本没流量
以后只发图 想看自己找 别恨我

#蓝v #互关 #流量

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

@BonoDJblack ❤️❤️❤️

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

连2天浇朋友都被背叛
我要不相信这个社会了

#蓝v #浇个朋友 #Follow

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

marscoin-4:native / USDT | 1H
Status: In at spot. Liquidity around 0.118 got swept and reclaimed. W bottom still intact, structure stays bullish. This is not a guess — it’s wait-for-confirmation.
Key level: Watch 0.1277 first. That’s the first gate. Break and hold = takeoff. Fail it = still a range.
Plan: Hold the current entry. No chase. No add. If price clears 0.1277 and holds, lock in and let it run. Until then, treat it as chop. Don’t get shaken out.
Targets: TP1: 0.1277
TP2: 0.136–0.141
TP3: 0.146 prior high
Invalidation / stop: Lose 0.118 and fail to reclaim, or take out 0.1107 again — thesis is dead.
Note: This is a meme. Volatility is violent. Hold only after the break. Survive the noise before 0.1277. Size your own risk. Not financial advice.

$MARSCOIN

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

marscoin-4:native / USDT | 1H
Status: In at spot. Liquidity around 0.118 got swept and reclaimed. W bottom still intact, structure stays bullish. This is not a guess — it’s wait-for-confirmation.
Key level: Watch 0.1277 first. That’s the first gate. Break and hold = takeoff. Fail it = still a range.
Plan: Hold the current entry. No chase. No add. If price clears 0.1277 and holds, lock in and let it run. Until then, treat it as chop. Don’t get shaken out.
Targets: TP1: 0.1277
TP2: 0.136–0.141
TP3: 0.146 prior high
Invalidation / stop: Lose 0.118 and fail to reclaim, or take out 0.1107 again — thesis is dead.
Note: This is a meme. Volatility is violent. Hold only after the break. Survive the noise before 0.1277. Size your own risk. Not financial advice.

$MARSCOIN

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

marscoin-4:native / USDT｜1H
现况： 现价附近已进。0.118 流动性扫完收回，W 底还在，结构偏多。 现在不是猜方向，是等确认。
重点观察： 先盯 0.1277。 这是第一道关口。过了才叫起飞，没过先当震荡。
操作计划： 现价单先拿着，不追、不加。 站上 0.1277 并站稳，直接握死。 没过之前，让它自己走，不要手痒。
目标： TP1：0.1277
TP2：0.136–0.141
TP3：0.146 前高
失效 / 止损： 0.118 失守收不回来，或再破 0.1107，这单作废。
备注： Meme 波动极暴。过关再握，没过先忍。 仓位自己控，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。
进了就守规则：
0.1277 没过，当震荡；过了，握稳。
止损先设好，别让一根阴线把你从计划里洗出去。

$MARSCOIN

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

marscoin-4:native / USDT｜1H
现况： 现价附近已进。0.118 流动性扫完收回，W 底还在，结构偏多。 现在不是猜方向，是等确认。
重点观察： 先盯 0.1277。 这是第一道关口。过了才叫起飞，没过先当震荡。
操作计划： 现价单先拿着，不追、不加。 站上 0.1277 并站稳，直接握死。 没过之前，让它自己走，不要手痒。
目标： TP1：0.1277
TP2：0.136–0.141
TP3：0.146 前高
失效 / 止损： 0.118 失守收不回来，或再破 0.1107，这单作废。
备注： Meme 波动极暴。过关再握，没过先忍。 仓位自己控，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。
进了就守规则：
0.1277 没过，当震荡；过了，握稳。
止损先设好，别让一根阴线把你从计划里洗出去。

$MARSCOIN

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

1/3 BTC dump breakdown
87,247 to 82,832, about -5.1%. Spot now 84,459, only 37% of the drop recovered.
This was a leverage flush plus spot selling. The real damage was done on that high-volume red candle. What followed is a low-volume technical bounce. No sign of fresh capital coming in yet.
The main sell leg printed nearly $4.5B in volume, about 6–7x a normal hour. Looks like a liquidation cascade.
2/3 Positioning
OI fell from 107k to 96.1k BTC, about -10%. Price down, OI down = longs got flushed. OI did not rebuild on the bounce, so this rebound looks like short covering, not new longs pushing price.
Net longs -9,974. Net shorts -6,776. Both sides cutting, longs cutting more.
Long/short account ratio went from about 0.85 to 1.285. More people buying the dip, so the long side is getting crowded at the account level, but OI is not being rebuilt. That is where the next flush risk sits.
3/3 Spot CVD is still falling. Futures CVD is also negative. Bounce has no volume and no OI rebuild, so treat it as a technical repair, not the start of a new leg up.
Watch whether 84k can hold. If it cannot, 82,832 is still in control.

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

1/3 BTC dump breakdown
87,247 to 82,832, about -5.1%. Spot now 84,459, only 37% of the drop recovered.
This was a leverage flush plus spot selling. The real damage was done on that high-volume red candle. What followed is a low-volume technical bounce. No sign of fresh capital coming in yet.
The main sell leg printed nearly $4.5B in volume, about 6–7x a normal hour. Looks like a liquidation cascade.
2/3 Positioning
OI fell from 107k to 96.1k BTC, about -10%. Price down, OI down = longs got flushed. OI did not rebuild on the bounce, so this rebound looks like short covering, not new longs pushing price.
Net longs -9,974. Net shorts -6,776. Both sides cutting, longs cutting more.
Long/short account ratio went from about 0.85 to 1.285. More people buying the dip, so the long side is getting crowded at the account level, but OI is not being rebuilt. That is where the next flush risk sits.
3/3 Spot CVD is still falling. Futures CVD is also negative. Bounce has no volume and no OI rebuild, so treat it as a technical repair, not the start of a new leg up.
Watch whether 84k can hold. If it cannot, 82,832 is still in control.

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

1/3 BTC 這波下殺拆解
87,247 打到 82,832，跌約 5.1%。現價 84,459，只回補了 37%。
這波是槓桿清洗加現貨賣壓。主殺傷在那根爆量長黑就完成了，現在是縮量技術反彈，還沒看到新資金進場。
主跌段成交量接近 45 億，大約是平時的 6 到 7 倍，結構很像連環強平。
2/3 籌碼
持倉量 10.7 萬降到 9.61 萬 BTC，大約少 10%。價跌、OI 也掉，是多單被洗。反彈時 OI 沒回升，比較像空單回補，不是新多單在推。
淨多頭 -9,974，淨空頭 -6,776。多空都在減倉，多單減得更多。
多空人數比從約 0.85 拉到 1.285。越跌越有人抄底，帳戶端多頭變擁擠，但 OI 沒重建，再洗一次的風險還在。
3/3 你沒寫，我依第二張圖補一則，可直接用或刪掉：
現貨 CVD 還在掉，合約 CVD 也是負的。反彈沒量、倉位也沒補回來，先當技術性修補，不要當成新一輪起漲。
84K 這帶先看有沒有人接。站不住，還是 82,832 那根低點說了算。

bitcoin:native

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

1/3 BTC 這波下殺拆解
87,247 打到 82,832，跌約 5.1%。現價 84,459，只回補了 37%。
這波是槓桿清洗加現貨賣壓。主殺傷在那根爆量長黑就完成了，現在是縮量技術反彈，還沒看到新資金進場。
主跌段成交量接近 45 億，大約是平時的 6 到 7 倍，結構很像連環強平。
2/3 籌碼
持倉量 10.7 萬降到 9.61 萬 BTC，大約少 10%。價跌、OI 也掉，是多單被洗。反彈時 OI 沒回升，比較像空單回補，不是新多單在推。
淨多頭 -9,974，淨空頭 -6,776。多空都在減倉，多單減得更多。
多空人數比從約 0.85 拉到 1.285。越跌越有人抄底，帳戶端多頭變擁擠，但 OI 沒重建，再洗一次的風險還在。
3/3 你沒寫，我依第二張圖補一則，可直接用或刪掉：
現貨 CVD 還在掉，合約 CVD 也是負的。反彈沒量、倉位也沒補回來，先當技術性修補，不要當成新一輪起漲。
84K 這帶先看有沒有人接。站不住，還是 82,832 那根低點說了算。

bitcoin:native

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

@NevermoreLx 哈哈哈
太憋屈了 旧号被禁后新号流量一直上不来

[henliha @SweetbigGG]

不要恨我为啥不拉下面一点
都是x逼我的为什么没有流量
#蓝v #互关 #流量