Cerval 🇨🇭

tech founder and market participant. no financial advice

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

Very beneficial for companies like Skeena $SKE
https://t.co/WWG2vSy2Ku

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

Interesting status on AI names :
the AI outlook has shifted from the prior "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose" to now "Glass Totally and Completely Empty" -view
What makes it so toxic is that, after a week of negative AI catalysts (and after September's "Agentic Excitement" had rebuilt long positioning, complete with a resumption of "extremely notable and sizeable" speculative upside options trades in the usual suspect AI names), McElligott says the market has capitulated into a lose-lose. In his words, it has become a toxic "Pick Your Poison":
•If hyperscaler capex keeps accelerating, "like Zuck / META showed us, the market obsesses about FCF burn negative and further questions the ability to finance the whole thing, which is of course 'Non-Linear' with 'More Paper at Wider Spreads'...and the AI trade gets hit on this 'Unsustainability'"
•If hyperscaler capex outright decelerates, "it speaks to decline from the prior 'Best Case' -scenario which had been 'Priced-In' on AI Demand / Adoption / Profitability / End-User Margins & Productivity -theses, and the AI trade gets lit on fire"
In other words, the AI trade now loses whether the hyperscalers spend more or spend less, something we noted yesterday morning.

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@TopStockAlerts1 $14

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@willywoo Makes sense

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@perry_lin1 The bounce will be legendary

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@Pharmdca Very manipulated stock

[Ulys @Ulys_AI]

TOKEN2049 is here & so is the bull run 🐂

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[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@Gavin_Bloomf Not going to happen . Probability stands at 0
This is not how it works . The chance of a bid will come when date of Vanquish 1 and 2 are released . Q3 2027 is a logical time

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

Agree with this

Raising rates while underlying inflation is already easing seems a policy error in the making

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@wolfejosh Didn’t know this fact Josh

[Pharmdca @Pharmdca]

Are you buying Iphone Duo?

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

It’s funny how this market is so crazy . Great August Payrolls and you would think economy is thriving but yet market turns negative . This inflation fear dictates everything !!!

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

$wulf
Not out of the woods yet . Technically better but overhang on data centers still floating

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

Wow. This is the present

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

This is GPT-6 Astra.

Anything you can do on a computer, Astra can do for you. Fast.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

In her latest sciolistic letter to me, @SenWarren made it clear that she knows even less about foreign exchange markets than she does about banking.

What is equally shocking, but not surprising: not a single member of the media mob has a rudimentary-enough level of financial market literacy to spot her remedial error.

To reiterate: under @POTUS, the United States delivers for America’s trusted partners.

For a fuller explanation, I recommend Senator Warren take any entry level course in international finance for her and her staff, or I can personally give her a tutorial on Foreign Exchange for Dummies. Although I am not holding my breath, I hope her next letter will demonstrate that she has learned the difference between a currency purchase and a swap or a loan.

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

RIP Yayoi Kusama

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

@perry_lin1 BMNR is the play

[Perry Lin @perry_lin1]

$WULF always represents a buying opportunity on earnings day. At first glance, no surprises and business tracking as expected. More to say after the call.

[Semiconductor Insider @SemiconductorsX]

JP Morgan dropped two charts that tell a clear story about what has been happening with leveraged products, mostly in Korea.

Look at Figure 12 first.

It shows the total money sitting in leveraged ETFs (Assets Under Management).

In early 2026 the amount was around $10 billion. Then it slowly climbed. By June it exploded and hit almost $50–52 billion. That is a massive pile of leverage.

But look at the right side of the chart. From the peak in early July it has been falling hard. Right now it is down to roughly $16–18 billion.

JPMorgan’s own words: the AUM has now declined to levels “we believe are no longer problematic.”

In short: the big forced-selling machine has mostly finished its work. Most of the dangerous leverage has already been washed out.

Now look at Figure 13.

This one shows the cumulative money that flowed into these leveraged products over the past year and a half.

You can see three lines:

- Blue = onshore broad-market leveraged ETFs
- Orange = offshore products
- Grey = onshore single-stock leveraged ETFs (the most dangerous ones)

All three lines were rising fast earlier this year. Single-stock ones especially went vertical in June and early July. But in the last few weeks the inflows have clearly stalled. The lines have flattened or even started to drop a bit.

JPMorgan says recent regulatory tightening is the main reason. Authorities raised the cash requirements and made it harder for retail investors to keep pouring new money into these products. That seems to be working.

Putting both charts together, the message is simple:

1. The huge pile of leveraged money that was amplifying every move has been cut down a lot.
2. Fresh money is no longer rushing in at the same crazy pace.
3. The worst of the forced liquidations is probably behind us.

Of course markets can still be volatile. Nothing is ever 100% done. But compared to where we were just a few weeks ago, this is a big improvement.

When leverage gets this extreme, it creates a self-reinforcing loop: prices fall → leveraged investors get margin-called → they are forced to sell → prices fall more. That loop looks like it is mostly broken now.

For anyone who has been watching the Korean market get smashed by these products, these two charts are the first real signs of relief.

Deleveraging is never fun while it is happening. But once it is largely complete, the market can finally start trading on fundamentals again instead of forced selling.

These JPMorgan charts suggest we are getting close to that point.

[Cerval 🇨🇭 @SwissCerval]

$wulf although the trend is somewhat bearish - $15 is a logical price for a bounce or a pause . Let’s see