TacticzHazel

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[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

This AI buildout is probably the greatest thing that could've happened to investors.

The scale and speed is unmatched.

And it doesn't look like it's ending soon.

But keep this in mind: Hyperscaler's CAPEX spend shows up us revenue across the value chain.

Companies benefiting from the AI buildout have seen steep appreciation in revenue growth.

But looking at the hyperscalers side, it sits on the balance sheet and depreciates over the next 5, 10 or even 20 years depending on the asset.

The cash-based view of this CAPEX boom is not just roses and butterflies.

The "cost" is spread over years while the "revenue" lands now.

You might think: nothing special, all completely legal.

That's just how accounting works. And that's true.

But it does provide a significant risk.

Hyperscaler's earnings have a strong headwind coming their way.

Depreciation will keep rising for years as the asset base grows.

Free cash flow is already being crushed, but on the surface, EPS looks fine.

Cashflow is actually ending up down-chain, therefore DRAM and other Semi, and semi-adjacent plays have boomed these last years.

But when the CAPEX growth slows or stops, and it will, supplier revenues crater fast while hyperscaler earnings actually improve.

However, in this day and age, the market is pricing supplier earnings as if this capex cycle is permanent.

It's not.

Although part of it probably will be.

But a large part is also a one-time buildout.

When that build slows, and it eventually well, revenue across the board will take a hit.

And on top of that, depreciation from everything already built will provide further balance sheet headwinds.

I'm not saying this will hurt the sector anytime soon. But it is something to be weary of. Because when hyperscalers start slowing down, so will the whole AI buildout.

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@ErsanKuneriLen If you made the decision in a rational way, you should stand behind it :D

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

I really want to trim some of my $NBIS position.

But oh boy, so much buying pressure. Trimming when it has so much momentum going feels bad.

Up 10% from the lows a few hours ago.

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@ResearchPulse1 What research peace are you referring to? Would love to read a bit more.

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@Aktiehedonist And you won't lose a minute of sleep over them

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

$V and $MA seem like very attractive buys right now.

$MA sits at a forward PE of 23, which is the lowest level it has been in a decade.

Same story with $V, now trading at a forward PE of 22.

Mastercard just bounced of it's 200-week moving average, a level not touched since the 2022 market correction.

Do I think they will 10X from here in the next 10 year?

Not at all.

But not all stocks in your portfolio have to be 10X's.

These will protect your downside, while probably give anywhere between 10%-15% CAGR grom here.

I have a slight preference for $V, mostly due to its sheer size, but $MA is the faster growing company.

If you like cash machines, this is a nice safe bet.

Thoughts on $MA and $V right now?

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

$DLO is a bargain now?

I've been impressed with Dlocal for a while. Pedro Arnt has been on point with his choices and the direction the company is in.

Absolutely stellar execution.

But that's not how Dlocal is valued right now.

TPV growth, which is one of the key metrics to watch for Dlocal, has increased by 73% YoY. And that's not a one-off, they've done 6 consecutive quarters of 50% YoY growth.

For 2026 they also guide for 50%-60% TPV growth.

Gross profit is increasing too, so eventually this will drop down to the bottom line.

Generating strong free cash flow and they have a large buy back program in place ($300M).

Investors are worried about declining take rates and margin pressure due to customer concentration, but that was always in the cards. It's part of the business.

As long as TPV outgrows the declining margins, Bob's your uncle.

And that's not the only risk with $DLO. They are exposed to currency volatility and macro instability due to their focus on EM. And of course, exposed to regulatory changes.

But with a PE of 18, and a forward PE of 12, a lot of these risks is priced in my opinion.

I'd argue it's hard to find such a fast-growing, cash-generating machine, with an incredibly capex-light scalable business model.

Thoughts?

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@teh_florist Been a beast alright

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@RJCcapital Can't win them all unc

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@MissMav87 Becoming too big in the portfolio :D

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@MathiasTheus Is it really though.

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@BudSandu My man is getting rich.

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@KizzyInvests Maybe I should do that :D

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@LondonBrit2020 I'm still happy with how it looks. Good balance between different sectors.

I've trimmed a bit here and there yes.

You?

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@StockWorthyApp Fully agree!

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@MALLICK_Stocks @HatedMoats Just like we are used to :P

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@Mono_Invest Damn, that's strong conviction!

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@Mono_Invest Seems that worked out well?

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@BlackPantherCap I dunno, just feels overextended and growing too large in the portfolio :D

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@RichardWedekin1 I am, for now ! :P

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@KMISglobal What is ahead? :P

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

$NVO up 4.5% today. BAM!

[Hated Moats Investor @HatedMoats]

“Wow, my portfolio is doing quite well, even SaaS like $NOW, $ADBE and $CRM are doing well!”

BAM!

SaaS back to high single digit losses daily

BAM!

$AVGO down like a meme stock

BAM!

$NVO down -2% every single day no matter what (actually no bam! there)

BAM!

$RKLB down -24% in 5 days

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@babyfolio But a good one it seems :D

[TacticzHazel @TacticzH]

@babyfolio Chart artist.