Jonathan Stach

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@thebtcfrontierX @xapa03 Nice

[At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅 @thebtcfrontierX]

📝To all loyal followers and to all haters:

Sheriff has been wrong price-wise for one out of 50 to 100ish times. Yes, I did not see a drop of that trajectory coming. My original levels were $74.5k to $72k, worst case $71k. My dear friend @xapa03 and I have warned back in September and October when $BTC was trading at $87k that IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO (what we have somehow overshot and I don't see any logical reasons for it) we might see the lower $70k cluster again.🧐

Right now, $BTC is trading at $68k cluster, objectively overshooting the targets we have projected. At this very moment, I deeply consider quitting my short term updates. I came from higher time frame charts and have nailed the 2025 top and the 2026 bottom to the tee, if you have followed me for several years, you might know that, if not, go back through all my posts. I never delete anything.🙅‍♂️

Since a lot of angry and harsh messages and comments have reached me and also my friend @xapa03, I for myself let YOU, the PEOPLE AT THE FRONTIER, decide whether I should continue giving updates on the short term timeframes or not. The Frontier is a democracy, so I give all power to the people. If you feel like giving feedback, now is the time to take part in the anonymous poll which I will post in a few minutes. Please use your voting right and let our democracy speak.🇺🇸

Of course, I have prepared an update for you today. Maybe this will be my last update or maybe you'll have another #ShortTermSaturday coming tomorrow. It all depends on the poll and I am fine with every outcome.🤷‍♂️

In the end, I urge you to please stay friendly and kind. We are all children of God and neither my dear friend @xapa03 nor I deserve this. Always remember, it is our free time and we could have never let you know about all those indicators and scripts. Neither @xapa03 nor I are responsible for anything. We never give financial advice nor are we financial advisors, we only love to work in those models and share our ideas.🙏

Failing is human, now I have not called the perfect bottom zone but we were the only ones, giving you the call for the drawdown and @xapa03's pattern was correct all this time, the outside noises were to loud to interfere with our thoughts. Not nailing the price targets this time makes you forget all other calls that were 100% correct including the cycle bottom in June 2026? Think for yourself and take from it what you need.🗒️

💡Short analysis part (if you still have trust in us, if not just skip):

1) Against all my thoughts we have clearly overshot .5 and .618 fib. An uptrend will remain intact if we don't go below .386 fib. For now, also looking at Paralia daily, SEI daily and RSI daily, and seeing $BTC exactly turning around intraday at .386 fib, I would assume that this might the final bottom zone. This idea would be supported by the second picture which shows the formation of a head and shoulders pattern.🎢

2) Head and shoulders pattern forming right now, see picture four for the technical explanation. 👇

3) Yesterday's analysis broke, we now have fallen bellow the white trendline. Our current last support standing at $66.7k to $67.5k cluster will be the one to watch. If this cluster also fails, Sheriff will quit short term analyzing as I was not able to provide the quality I have strived to present to you. This decision is set. So I risk my short term analysis (which I have always loved to prepare for you) to this price cluster. It's now a make it or break it.⛓️

Have a wonderful day and always remember, our real life happens outside of the charts.🌳

Sheriff🤠

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@thebtcfrontierX Man ich wollte ja für bleiben machen 😅

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@xapa03 Strong bro

[XAPA @xapa03]

The bottom is in.
Invalidation if Bitcoin goes below the green TEM Box.
Called it in September, played out now.
I had my doubts, and now I simply have to learn from this experience, that’s all there is to it.
The bears are screaming for 40k, for 50k, I suspect you’ll still be standing on the sidelines then.
Anyone who doesn’t buy in HERE will end up jumping in at 90k.
I will never doubt myself again, and I will no longer be swayed by any outside influence.
I am confident that I will be proven right.
See you at the end of November!

82/83k -> 75k -> 86k -> 67k -> 100k ⌛️

bitcoin:native

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@thebtcfrontierX @xapa03 Need to be over so much fud

[At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅 @thebtcfrontierX]

Howdy friends! Sheriff's in town to keep y'all safe from the bears that have been haunting the County for a few weeks.🐻

☹️In the past few days, my dear friend @xapa03 and I have been called out for "PoTEnTiaLLy" wrong analysis. Guys, two things to bear in mind with such accuses:

1) Neither @xapa03 nor I am financial advisors and neither of us does it as a living, it's our deep hard work and we could have kept EVERY SINGLE CHART AND INDICATOR for ourselves and y'all out there would have never gotten to see any of those things - FOR FREE, guys. To attack either my friend or me is the worst thing you could do. We will not tolerate any of those comments and will instantly block and delete. It's not that we cannot stand being called wrong, it's simple wrong to postulate we were wrong since we have been right all the time if you had followed all of our analysis from at least June 2026, if not October 2025, you'd have known better. So please stop that and enjoy what is being given to your information-wise. We can stop posting things tomorrow, and would live a decent life. So please be kind, you never know what the other person sitting next to you is going through right now. Understood? If you can agree on this one, you are very welcome at the Frontier and in Xapa's World.🦅

2) In the end, it's not about the gains, the losses, the profits, or the right or wrong calls. Eventually when it all comes down to an end, what we have grown, what we have given in this life counts. Not for money, but out of pure gratitude and empathy. Sheriff was a Bitcoin student too, I had a good mentor and I basically taught myself everything for over a decade. @xapa03 has been in this space as an OG for way longer than some of you might be able to imagine, and we both want to give something back. We both are men of God and have a strong belief in God's creation and in helping each other. We do this out of pure love for the topic and we know we might inspire some of you. We see the fiat world problems and know the Bitcoin is the only solution to this harsh reality. To those who have found us and support us, welcome in this space - God bless you too, God watches you and your actions, and God sees the good in you. Don't you ever forget that.🙏

With that being said, let's dive into an "emergency update" so many of you wanted. Sheriff never leaves you alone at the Frontier. Welcome to Sheriff's support group where you can share you deepest fears in $BTC and you shall be helped.🏥

In today's spontaneous #TAThursday, I would like to give you a clear outlook for what I think might be happening soon at the $BTC Frontier. As always, nothing in this post is financial advice nor am I or my friend @xapa03 financial advisors.⚠️

Before going into the analysis, please read my STS update from October 10th in which I clearly and objectively predicted the breakdown of the rising wedge.👇

1) We have broken down the rising wedge and I initially thought we might see the first impulse back up at the .618 fib at around $74.5k which obviously didn't happen. We further then told you if .618 fails, we will visit .5 fib which sits plainly at $71k cluster with a tolerance of $1k plus/minus. This call still stands and might be the call of the quarter if this holds. And guys even if not, we don't care at all. We will not see the bear market lows again. If it was to break down to $67k - $69k cluster, so might be it. And then, I am of course open to call my analysis wrong. But the core of everything is not wrong at all, which you can see in pictures 2) and 3). And to discuss whether it's $72k, $71k, or $69k, c'mon guys. This is BS, no one knows the exact price target to the tee, 5% tolerance is okay imo, but please appreciate the 95% certainty that we have been delivering.🧮

2) We can clearly detect bullish and bearish divergences and if we were to build a new bullish divergence, we might see no lower low in RSI going forward but either a slight lower low in price ($69k cluster) or a same low rangebounding in the $71k cluster area which will result in a hidden bullish divergence. Two potential paths (red and green) have been drawn in, you might want to check this picture out in detail.✌️

3) This picture perfect analysis has been made by @xapa03 and his eagle eyes. He saw what nobody had seen back then in September. He called for the crash and laid out the scenario. He also gave options to the upside but the general trend was always clear. How can this be interpreted as "wrong", I mean c'mon guys.🤦‍♂️

You will be provided with detailed price levels soon in my next #ShortTermSaturday report. For now, my gut feeling and my charts tell me that we are closer to forming a bottom than crashing even further down hard. It's now a correction in time rather in price. Long term, $BTC is the only solution to so many fiat world problems, but guys, that's a topic for another support group rehab session.☕️

Take care and never forget to be kind to each other.🧡

Sheriff🤠

[Killa @KillaXBT]

People want the big green PnLs but don't want to endure the drawdown in the process.

[XAPA @xapa03]

Here is the original Post:

https://t.co/mhm33CEjOE

[XAPA @xapa03]

Call me crazy, but I gave this exact call and then didn’t even follow it myself.
You can see the reason in the second picture.
I remain of the opinion that the bull market is intact.
As soon as Bitcoin falls below the $66,600 level, I’m completely out.
I miscalculated, not because the pattern was unclear, but because I didn’t fully follow what it had already shown me.
75 and 72 were supposed to hold.
I kept adjusting my targets, as if a new number could somehow correct the old logic.
But the pattern had already given the answer long before I was ready to accept it.
This was the first time I misjudged so clearly.
Not because I hadn’t seen it, but because I asked myself the question without taking it all the way, if we go up percentage wise with the same pattern, shouldn’t we also see the exact same percentage drop?
And that’s exactly what happened.
Sometimes you don’t need a gut feeling.
Sometimes the pattern is enough.
And sometimes you have to be wrong first to realize you already had the answer, you just didn’t finish reading it.
Everything I share here is for educational purposes only.
It is not a recommendation and not advice.
Everyone decides for themselves what to do with it.

bitcoin:native

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@thebtcfrontierX @xapa03 Hi Frontier, ich habe eine Frage zum Fibonacci Level. Ich habe gelernt, dass man das Fibonacci von unten nach oben zieht beim abtrennt und beim Down Trend oben nach unten.
WiSo ist es bei dir anders herum ?

[At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅 @thebtcfrontierX]

Market Alert post in a few hours. Sheriff's been holding strong. Please stay kind to each other! We are all humans and no one knows everything 100% for sure. God loves you, so do good and be kind.

[XAPA @xapa03]

Called yesterday on Discord around 74,6 that we will head back to blue box between 71/72k, here we are.
Invalidation, if Bitcoin goes below 70,5k.
It was also visible in this thread, just check the comments.
It feels like the hardest capitulation event.

bitcoin:native

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Im back.

Sometimes, its necessary to reset & come back to the market with a fresh set of eyes.

Reflecting on these past few weeks, I would say that it has been painful. Lots of despair. It seems like the narrative this time around is the Anthropic IPO with the markets already bracing for another anti-crypto regulator like Gensler with Trump losing midterms.

Observing things from a fresh mind, alot of people are frustrated & exhausted. I can admit myself, even after 7 years of experience, it is a tad bit frustrating but again, reflecting on things, I think this correction was very much needed in a way after the impulse upwards. Just I wasn't prepared/hedged in the sense of protecting my lower entries.

I think whats interesting is that as attention is shifting from BTC, with the Anthropic IPO, we saw the same type of thing with SpaceX. In which BTC formed a macro bottom shortly after and because everyone was focused on catching the biggest IPO in history, they ignored BTC. Getting a similar vibe this time around. When observing things in general from not just a technical but fundamental standpoint, aside from the market being in complete despair an BTC down -17% from the highs, I still believe this is the perfect time to add exposure if you haven't already. Hence me still being long, continuing to add spot exposure, and executing some lower leverage longs in the process.

Usually times like this is where the most money is made. Maximum uncertainty, maximum fear & most importantly, the fact that BTC is being smacked at every angle with every bit of fud being thrown its way... I actually think its acted relatively resilient despite what has been thrown its way these past few weeks.

You had the Binance hack, rates being held, DXY rallying, bonds still increasing, MSTR the new fud around the block about delisting, the Ledger wallet hack, hot CPI. Honestly, you would expect BTC to be sub-50K by now with that amount of shit happening.

But considering its still in the same upper range impulsing from the lows, i think we can assume only 1 of 2 things. Either 1. $BTC is heavily delayed & about to react very negatively to this news in the short term, we form a new low into EOY then the recovery is even more violent than the first one.

Or 2. BTC's resilience to this negative news is showing early signs & characteristics of how a bull market begins. Instead of extending lower on significantly bad news, we in fact use that to capitulate leverage in the market before the next leg higher.

We will have clarity in due time. If structure start reclaiming the range, well then as long as we accept above, its go time. Until then, market is in maximum uncertainty even from the few people that I know who are very good traders. I would be naive to say that I don't feel the same way. I am a tad bit uncertain myself which is why I am sticking with my plan despite it all.

Through maximum uncertainty, is maximum opportunity with BTC. lets see if this time will be different.

[XAPA @xapa03]

The Bitcoin algorithm currently seems very precise when it comes to pumps and dumps.
The dumps were stronger than the pumps.
Called it 4 days ago and it played out perfectly.
Manipulation or coincidence?

bitcoin:native

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@thebtcfrontierX @xapa03 Thx

[At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅 @thebtcfrontierX]

Howdy, Fellas!

A quick update on my #TATuesday trendline is attached within this post. So far, the trendline has been holding strong. If we were to fail, 0.5 fib at $71k would be the absolute worst nightmare turnaround which I do not expect. I think we will soon turn around. NFA!⚠️

Soon, all bearish fantasies will be vanished. Enjoy your stay at the Frontier.🦅

[XAPA @xapa03]

called it 3 days ago.. hit it

bitcoin:native

[Jonathan Stach @TBTMonkey]

@xapa03 Let’s go

[XAPA @xapa03]

I leave that beautyful view here and will make an update about it very soon..

bitcoin:native